Thank you for following our Slovakia election live blog.
It’s been a dramatic night, from exit polls first indicating that Progressive Slovakia would win to Smer ultimately garnering the most votes when results came in.
But now, the shape of Slovakia’s future government will depend on complex negotiations and the decision-making of smaller parties.
Meanwhile, governments across the continent are sure to keep a close eye on Bratislava’s foreign policy choices – especially when it comes to Ukraine.
Stay tuned for future coverage.
Summary of the night: Smer on course to win Slovakia's election
Populist former prime minister Robert Fico’s Smer party is on course to win Slovakia’s election, garnering more support than its rival Progressive Slovakia in a dramatic knife-edge vote.
With over 98% of districts reporting, Smer is set to take 23.37% of the vote. Michal Šimečka’s Progressive Slovakia came second with 16.86%, followed closely by Peter Pellegrini’s Hlas with 15.03%.
The election’s outcome is likely to further fuel fears about Slovakia’s future foreign policy orientation. Fico has vowed to stop military aid to Ukraine, criticised sanctions targeting Russia and campaigned against LGBTQ+ rights. His rhetoric has raised concerns that Bratislava could join Viktor Orbán’s Hungary as a more Russia-friendly voice within the EU and NATO.
Exit polls initially indicated that Progressive Slovakia pulled ahead to first place, raising expectations in the country’s liberal camp. But as votes were counted throughout the night, those hopes were dashed.
Still, the shape of Slovakia’s next government remains unclear and much will depend on complex coalition-building with smaller parties, including Hlas and Igor Matovič’s OĽaNO.
Experts and politicians have described the country’s election campaign as highly polarised and marked by a deluge of online misinformation.
Results show that Progressive Slovakia did particularly well in Bratislava. But that was not enough to win a plurality nationally.
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And here are the latest numbers, with nearly all districts reporting results.
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Smer ahead with 90% of districts reporting
Populist former prime minister Robert Fico’s Smer party has garnered over 23% of the vote, far ahead of its rival Progressive Slovakia, according to early results.
With nearly 92% of precincts counted, Progressive Slovakia is at 15.84% and Hlas at 15.39.
Nevertheless, counting continues, including in Bratislava, where Progressive Slovakia is leading.
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The latest from Bratislava region, where counting continues.
More data, with around 90% of precincts counted
Latest projections from Denník N
Waiting for more clarity
As counting continues, so does the uncertainty, with some experts now expecting Smer to garner more votes than Progressive Slovakia.
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Latest national results, with nearly 68% of precincts counted.
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Analysts say a Smer-led coalition now looking like a possibilty.
Current trends suggest a Smer-Hlas-SNS coalition a distinct possibility in #volby2023 🇸🇰 SNS now looking safe (an 80% certainty on current trends). Still plenty can change.
— Tim Haughton (@HaughtonTim) October 1, 2023
Progressive Slovakia shines in capital
With around 20% counted in the Bratislava region, the progressives have a solid lead in the area.
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Here are the latest numbers.
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Smer could finish first, analyst says
“Smer’s lead with 40% of votes counted is so big that my guess is that they might finish on the 1st place,” Slovakia expert Milan Nič told the Guardian.
Central European progressives excited
It is “not everyday do we see an election where the margins are so tight, and the stakes are so extremely high,” said Katalin Cseh, a member of the European parliament from Hungary’s Momentum, an ally of Progressive Slovakia.
“I sincerely hope that the final results confirm the findings of the exit polls, and Slovakia chooses a European future over Russian propaganda,” she said.
“A stable, progressive, pro-European government is essential not only for the benefit of Slovak citizens, but also for the European Union as a whole,” Cseh said.
“I am convinced,” she added, “that Mr Šimečka’s Progressive Slovakia will be an essential ally for continuing the green transition, sustaining support for Ukraine, and for fending off the rise of populism and democratic backsliding, a phenomenon unfortunately far too common in the EU these days.”
All eyes are now on the capital.
Why Bratislava may swing the overall election results (from Markiza exit poll, so usual pinch of salt recommendation applies) pic.twitter.com/xPeA0yYqtb
— Tim Haughton (@HaughtonTim) October 1, 2023
“We are anxiously waiting for more precincts to be counted,” tweeted Progressive Slovakia leader Michal Šimečka.
“Let’s keep our fingers crossed,” he said.
Napäto čakáme na sčítanie väčšieho počtu okrskov. Držme si palce. pic.twitter.com/WPPRzJqUbN
— Michal Šimečka (@MSimecka) September 30, 2023
Latest national results
With nearly 37% of precincts counted, Smer is formally in the lead. It remains unclear how much votes from Bratislava – where the vast majority of ballots have yet to be counted – will shift the balance.
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Progressive Slovakia is in the lead in the Bratislava region as votes begin to be counted.
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Prediction
Progressive Slovakia “will see its vote increase, but maybe not enough to come 1st,” tweeted Tim Haughton, a professor of comparative and European politics at the University of Birmingham.
Where the first 25% votes were counted - given that no surprise Smer doing well and the Hungarian Aliancia. PS will see its vote increase, but maybe not enough to come 1st pic.twitter.com/b2hghPCuUv
— Tim Haughton (@HaughtonTim) September 30, 2023
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With less than a third of votes counted, this is where the results stand, according to Slovakia’s statistics office.
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There are conflicting views on how to read early results.
Slovak daily Pravda’s Andrej Matisak says the exit polls were wrong. Others advise patience.
I think exit polls were quite massively wrong. https://t.co/jhmx5ugRgU
— Andrej Matisak (@matisaksk) September 30, 2023
University College London lecturer Michal Ovádek cautions that early results do not include Bratislava – and are thus not indicative of the ultimate outcome.
PSA on #SlovakiaElections: the first 20% of the votes counted includes virtually no votes from the capital and only a limited number from other cities. The exit poll will not be fully accurate but the current results are not at all representative
— Michal Ovádek (@michal_ovadek) September 30, 2023
Long night ahead
There appears to be a big disparity between the first exit poll and first real results.
Nevertheless, many votes – including in the capital – have yet to be counted.
Robert Fico’s Smer in lead as votes counted
Despite exit polls showing that Progressive Slovakia would come in first, with 20% of votes counted the picture favours Smer.
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Waiting for results
With only 18% of votes counted, Smer is officially in the lead – but it remains unclear how representative those counted votes are of the full electorate. Stay tuned.
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What could the new Slovak parliament look like?
Denník N made a calculation based on the Focus exit poll for TV Markíza.
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Reactions to the first exit polls, in photos
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Far-right in
Both exit polls indicate that the far-right Republika party made it into parliament with around 6% of the vote.
Hungarian party falls short
Both the Focus and Median exit polls indicate that Szövetség–Aliancia (Alliance) did not pass the 5% threshold to make it into parliament.
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Eyes on small parties
While it appears that Progressive Slovakia has a narrow lead over Smer, much will depend on smaller parties – and who makes it into parliament.
While one exit poll has the nationalist Slovak National party (SNS) as out of the game, another indicates it will make it into parliament – thus giving Smer’s Robert Fico another possible coalition partner.
Another exit poll gives progressives narrow lead
An exit poll conducted by Median for RTVS also puts Progressive Slovakia ahead of Smer, very narrowly.
Tough coalition-building to come
The first exit poll points to a hung parliament, said Milan Nič, a senior research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations and expert on Slovakia.
The poll also indicates a first mandate for Progressive Slovakia to lead coalition talks, Nič told the Guardian.
One crucial thing to watch, he added, is whether the nationalist Slovak National party (SNS) will pass the 5% threshold to enter parliament.
“Their 9-10 mandates would change the parliamentary arithmetic in favour of a Fico-led coalition,” he said.
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Big night for progressives
If the first exit poll is accurate, Progressive Slovakia and its leader – 39-year old European parliament member Michal Šimečka – are having a great night.
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Exit poll shows Progressive Slovakia in lead
An exit poll conducted by the Focus agency for TV Markíza is now public:
Michal Šimečka’s Progressive Slovakia: 23.5%
Robert Fico’s Smer: 21.9%
Peter Pellegrini’s Hlas: 12.2%
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‘Positive yet humble spirits’ at Progressive Slovakia election night event
In a text message from Progressive Slovakia’s election event this evening, MEP Martin Hojsík described the mood as “positive yet humble spirits and friendly atmosphere”.
“The campaign was dirty. We had to face lots of misinformation and attacks but are happy that we managed to stay focused on presenting our message,” he told the Guardian.
“People here have given their best and now it’s in the hands of the voters,” Hojsík added.
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And now the question we’re all asking…
TV Markíza’s exit poll shows that one party is leading at 23.5%. But is it the populist former prime minister Robert Fico’s Smer, or the pro-EU Progressive Slovakia party?
We will find out at 10.45pm CET.
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First exit poll shows tight results
A first exit poll, conducted by the Focus agency for TV Markíza, shows that one Slovak political party is expected to get 23.5% of the vote, while another is expected to receive 21.9%.
The parties are not named due to a moratorium on publishing exit polls, which will be lifted at 10.45pm CET.
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Slovakia’s election day in pictures
Will Slovakia turn pro-Kremlin?
“There is a real concern that after the vote Slovakia could become some sort of Trojan horse of Russia in the EU and NATO,” said Andrej Matisak, a journalist at Slovak daily Pravda.
Robert Fico’s campaign rhetoric does suggest that if he is able to form a government, he would move towards the pro-Russia camp, Matisak said, noting that the Smer (Direction) leader “says that if he governs, Slovakia will not provide any military aid to Ukraine. And if he criticises Russia it is usually a very mild and general critique.”
But, the Slovak journalist said: “I believe that it is entirely possible that after the elections Fico might act quite pragmatically regarding the EU and NATO.”
The populist politician “wants to dominate the domestic scene and in order to achieve it, at least in the short term, he probably won’t do anything really drastic on the international scene as he wants to avoid unnecessary attention from the EU institutions.”
Nevertheless, he added, “the problem is that Fico already crossed a few red lines and his potential far-right coalition partners are probably even more pro-Russian than him.”
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How will the progressives do?
Progressive Slovakia has surged in the polls over the past few months.
“If the 2020 election is anything to go by, the momentum of the final days is going to propel Progressive Slovakia to first place,” tweeted Michal Ovádek, a lecturer at University College London.
if the 2020 election is anything to go by, the momentum of the final days is going to propel @progresivne_sk to first place. Frankly, I will be surprised if it doesn't https://t.co/tluP9GdYjr
— Michal Ovádek (@michal_ovadek) September 30, 2023
Key event
Zelenskiy sends a message
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, sent a message to Slovaks on election day. Without mentioning the race, he thanked Slovakia for “standing with Ukraine”.
Robert Fico’s opposition to military aid for Ukraine and criticism of sanctions raised fears that a new Slovak government could join Hungary as a more pro-Russian voice within the EU and Nato.
Yesterday, I welcomed Slovak Defense Minister Martin Sklenár in Kyiv.
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 30, 2023
We discussed frontline developments, priority defense needs, and cooperation on humanitarian mine clearance.
I thank Slovakia for standing with Ukraine.
🇺🇦🇸🇰 pic.twitter.com/Fq9a5vlTFU
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Hungarian minister weighs in
Péter Szijjártó, Hungary’s foreign minister and a close ally of Viktor Orbán, urged Hungarian speakers in Slovakia to vote for the Szövetség-Aliancia (Alliance) party representing ethnic Hungarians.
“Now is the time! Hungarians in the parliament!” he wrote in a social media post today endorsing Krisztián Forró, the party’s lead candidate.
Szijjártó also spent time in Slovakia earlier in the week.
‘It will be close’: Candidates make last push
In what is expected to be a knife-edge vote, candidates have been urging Slovaks to come out to vote – and bring their friends.
“If you haven’t voted today, please join - by train, car, on foot, as needed,” Progressive Slovakia leader Michal Šimečka wrote on Facebook earlier this evening. “It will be close and every single vote can decide,” he added.
“Friends, come cast your vote,” Hlas party leader and former prime minister Peter Pellegrini said on social media. “Others have already used their opportunity, but you can decide,” he said.
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Catch up on the Guardian’s Slovakia coverage
Polls open in knife-edge vote with Ukraine high on agenda by Jon Henley
‘Roma only’: the school caught up in a Slovakian national scandal by Daniel Boffey
‘A huge storm’: polarised Slovakia on a knife edge ahead of elections by Jason Burke
Slovakian elections Q&A: country votes after four PMs in five years by Jon Henley
Exit polls expected at 10:45pm CET
While first exit polls were expected shortly after 10pm CET, a moratorium on publishing results has been extended until 10:45pm local time due to the death of a voter in a polling station in Považská Bystrica.
Nevertheless, television station Markíza is still expected to publish numbers at 10pm – but without indicating party names.
A record 58,779 people voted by mail from abroad in Slovakia’s election, according to the country’s interior ministry.
23,486 voted from the Czech Republic, 6,238 from the UK and 5,546 from Germany.
Welcome to the Slovakia election blog
Welcome to a special edition of our Europe live blog.
This evening we will be looking at Slovakia’s snap election, which has attracted attention far beyond the country’s borders.
All eyes are on 59-year-old Robert Fico, a populist former three-time prime minister who has pledged to stop military aid to Ukraine, criticised sanctions targeting Russia and campaigned against LGBTQ+ rights.
Fico’s Smer party is neck-to-neck in the polls with Progressive Slovakia, a liberal party led by 39-year-old European parliament vice-president Michal Šimečka.
But the ultimate outcome of the election may be decided by a host of smaller parties that are expected to also enter parliament.
Hlas, led by former prime minister and ex-Smer member Peter Pellegrini, has been coming in third in opinion polls and could become a kingmaker.
Are you following Slovakia’s election? We want to hear from you. Send comments to lili.bayer@theguardian.com.
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