Sleepers and Value Plays: Wide Receivers

A sleeper wide receiver is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him.  Average Draft Positions (ADP) are taken from MyFantasyLeague.com  using only real drafts conducted after July 15.

The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will unfold and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green check means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red “X” signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot.

Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Average Draft order – Value plays

ADP	Value	Tm	Name
1		HOU	DeAndre Hopkins	#1 WR for the last two years. Why not make it three?
2		GB	Davante Adams	Broke out in 2018 with 111-1386-13 and just got better as the season progressed. Packers did not bring in anyone new to pair with Adams.
3		NO	Michael Thomas	125 catches were the #5 best in NFL history. And he just got paid.
4		CLE	Odell Beckham	Could be the #1 WR with Baker Mayfield throwing passes to him. Drop him a couple though since he lasted 16 games in only one of five seasons. The upside is here to be sure. I’d just want to get him a few picks later… which likely won’t ever happen.
5		PIT	JuJu Smith-Schuster	111 catches in his second season and now Antonio Brown leaves a ton of targets behind. He’ll get the volume of passes. Slight risk since he’s never been the #1 guy before.
6		ATL	Julio Jones	Five straight years of over 1,400 yards. That deserves higher than the #6 WR.
7		TB	Mike Evans	Comes off 86-1524-8 last year. New offense under Bruce Arians should keep him productive.
8		KC	Tyreek Hill	87-1479-12 was good enough to be #3 in fantasy. Not like Mahomes is going to get worse in his second season.
9		OAK	Antonio Brown	Little concerned with his foot and why he has not been in camp. Until that is resolved, I am cooler on Brown than this spot. Brown was a lock for top-five if not #1 for the last five years but a new team, new QB and maybe a problem foot.
10		DAL	Amari Cooper	Contract year with everything to gain for Cooper in his first full season with the Cowboys. Hasn’t scored more than 7 TDs in any year but managed six in DAL in just eight weeks.
11		LAC	Keenan Allen	Two straight 16 game seasons means his durability issues are behind him. Not big on TDs but topped 1250 yards the last two years.
12		MIN	Stefon Diggs	Finally managed to crest 1,000 yards in his fourth NFL season but 102 catches only gained 1.021 yards and half his games were under 50 yards. If MIN can run the ball better, Diggs seems most likely to see a decrease if only slightly.
13		MIN	Adam Thielen	Thielen was in the top-eight the past two years and was on fire with Kirk Cousins there last year until the final five games. Bothersome to see his dip in stats the final month or so but still a great value as a WR2.
14		IND	T.Y. Hilton	The return of Andrew Luck made all the difference. Rock-solid WR2 with WR1 potential.
15		LAR	Brandin Cooks	First season in LAR was career-best at 80-1204-6. Final two playoff games both 100+ yards and Rams may not run as well this year.
16		CIN	A.J. Green	He’s dropping much further than this with news about his ankle requiring surgery and extended recovery. Would not touch anywhere personally. Same age as Doug Baldwin… just saying…
17		DET	Kenny Golladay	Hard to say exactly what the new offense by OC Darrell Bevell will look like other than the intent is to run the ball more. But Golladay clearly the best bet as a receiver when Matt Stafford passes.
18		LAR	Robert Woods	His 86-1219-6 was #10 last year for fantasy WR. He’s in his prime and could easily repeat 2018.
19		TB	Chris Godwin	Godwin turned up the production last year with three 100-yard games in the second half of the season. He takes over for the departed DeSean Jackson and has been praised by new HC Bruce Arians as having 100-catch potential. That might be hard with Mike Evans and O.J. Howard there, but Godwin should be at least this good.
20		ATL	Calvin Ridley	Not a terrible pick at all and he is entering his second season. Would prefer him a bit later. His 2018 stats were stacked thanks to the first three games with six TDs but only scored four over last 12.
21		NE	Julian Edelman	His 2018 stats were depressed thanks to missing first four weeks suspended. Has 90-catch potential and maybe more with Rob Gronkowski gone. At least this good and likely better with reception points.
22		CAR	D.J. Moore	Ended with 55 catches for 788 yards and two scores as a rookie on a team learning a new offense. Former first-round pick will make a second-year leap that makes this spot cheap.
23		SEA	Tyler Lockett	Stepped up to a career-best 57-967-10 last year and he’ll move from deep threat to #1 WR for the Seahawks. Will take Russell Wilson’s BFF a bit earlier than this.
24		LAR	Cooper Kupp	Tore his ACL in Week 10 last year. Would like to get clear evidence that he’s back to 100% before I’d consider him a WR2. Plenty of options in LAR for Jared Goff.
25		LAC	Mike Williams	Great spot for Williams who finally takes over as the #2 WR since Tyrell Williams left. First-round pick in 2017 scored ten TDs last year but only caught 43 passes for 664 yards. Will increase those receptions.
26		CIN	Tyler Boyd	Boyd already broke 1,000 yards last year and now A.J. Green looks iffy all over again. Love Boyd as a WR2 and he’s in WR3 territory here.
27		CLE	Jarvis Landry	Not a bad pick and maybe better than this. But Odell Beckham’s arrival changes a lot and how much Landry is needed in the slot will be lower. I’d let someone else take him.
28		TEN	Corey Davis	Been years since TEN produced a decent fantasy WR and that’s probably still true. But Davis almost hit 1,000 yards last year. Cannot fault the pick even if I’d never make it.
29		CHI	Allen Robinson	First year in CHI with Mitchell Trubisky had three missed games but still ended with 55-754-4. Was as good as 1,400 yards back in 2015 and gets second season with QB. Upside for WR2 here.
30		ARI	Christian Kirk	Kirk has tons of talent and will be the Cards #1 WR whenever Larry Fitzgerald finally breaks a hip. Little cooler on him with a whole new offense and a rookie QB. One good showing in a preseason game and he’s bound to shoot up in value.
31		NYJ	Robby Anderson	New HC Adam Gase said he wants Anderson more involved and the fourth-year WR was as good as 63-941-7 before switching to the rookie QB last year. Anderson scored in three of final four games of 2018 and posted 9-140 in his final home game. Love this WR2 at a WR3 price.
32		SF	Dante Pettis	Was held to only 27 catches for 467 yards but scored five times as a rookie on a terrible offense with no QB. Huge upside as the #1 WR in SF with Garoppolo back and a favorable schedule. Was 2.12 pick last year.
33		PHI	Alshon Jeffery	Only totaled 843 yards last year but missed three games.  Often misses a few weeks and only two 100-yard efforts since joining PHI in 2017.
34		KC	Sammy Watkins	Hard to fault the effort when healthy. Never healthy. Missed six games in first season in KC. Played with Mahomes and only ended with 40-519-3. Hard to buy into someone who missed 18 games over last four seasons. Or that caught just three of FIFTY TDs.
35		HOU	Will Fuller	And speaking of injured players, Fuller only gets worse missing 2, then 6 and then 9 games over the last three years. Great scorer when on the field. Opened 2018 with two 100-yard efforts and scored in first three. Just cannot stay healthy. Great WR3 whenever you can actually start him.
36		DEN	Courtland Sutton	Up and comer was 2.08 pick last year and ended 42-704-4 but Joe Flacco doesn’t hold a ton of promise for making an elite WR and eventually rookie QB takes over. Good spot for Sutton who has brighter future than present.

Sleepers and over-valued players

ADP	Value	Tm	Name
37		NE	N’Keal Harry	For some reason, Tom Brady getting a WR at 1.32 spawned optimism that he’ll post big stats but the Pats like to throw to their RBs and Harry is still just a rookie. Name a #2 WR that the Pats have favored in recent years. Now figure in this is a rookie.
38		NYG	Sterling Shepard	Yeah, he fractured his thumb but is still expected to ready to play. The Giants have a major hole to fill with Odell Beckham gone and Golden Tate suspended for four games.  The Giants need him to be better than this.
39		DET	Marvin Jones	Knee injury cut 2018 short in Week 10 and rumors he would be cut did not happen. Jones is the clear #2 WR in an offense that doesn’t throw as much anymore. Sat out the spring because of his knee.
40		ARI	Larry Fitzgerald	This is a good spot for the aged star that only managed to be the #29 WR last season. New offense, new rookie QB doesn’t sound promising for the declining 36-year-old WR already locked down  #2 in NFL history in receiving yards but still 6,000 yards short of Jerry Rice. Needs 12 TD to bump Marvin Harrison from #5 and that’s really unlikely. He’s playing mainly because he does not know how not to play.
41		SEA	DK Metcalf	Physical freak fell to 2.32 pick as a surprise but steps into a chance to be the #2 WR for Russell Wilson. This late in draft, why not?
42		CAR	Curtis Samuel	Third season for a WR that hasn’t met expectations. Only 578 total yards last year but scored seven times.  Did end 2018 with three of final five games over 70 yards.
43		NYG	Golden Tate	Suspended for the first four games, on a new team that may end up changing QBs to the rookie at some point. Nope.
44		GB	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	Probably my favorite sleeper WR of the draft. Rookie year had 38 catches for 581 and two scores but new offense should help him a lot. Worked out with Randy Moss in offseason and has Aaron Rodgers talking him up. I don’t need to hear much else.
45		JAC	Dede Westbrook	Probably not great that a team’s #1 WR is only the #45 taken in ADP but he caught 66 passes for 717 yards and five scores and was tops for the punchless Jags. Switching to Nick Foles can only be a positive and Jags get a much better schedule for 2018. Likely to offer WR3 stats at a deep WR4 price.
46		GB	Geronimo Allison	Has generated a bit of hype – obvious with this ADP since he’s never had more than 303 yards in any of his three seasons. Will man the slot for the Packers but HC Matt LaFleur did not use the position much in TEN nor OC Nathaniel Hackett from JAC.
47		HOU	Keke Coutee	Probably going to miss some weeks. Could not stay healthy as a rookie but his seven games played produced two 100-yard efforts. Could be a great value but has to stay healthy to reach it. Jury still out.
48		PIT	James Washington	Kind of flopped as a rookie with only 16 catches and one TD. Depth chart is open with Antonio Brown gone but Donte Moncrief has been the better #2 WR so far. Needs to show up big in the preseason to merit this sort of confidence.
49		DEN	Emmanuel Sanders	I won’t take him but this is an appropriate spot. 32-year-old WR comes off an Achilles injury and may not play at all in the preseason. Two straight seasons of sub-par performance and injuries not likely to get much better with Joe Flacco.
50		IND	Parris Campbell	This is likely too high for the rookie since Devin Funchess is the #2 WR and Campbell will have inconsistent play as the #3. The speedster has a bright future though and was the 2.27 pick with upside. If Funchess doesn’t clearly stay better or gets injured, then Campbell might matter this year.
51		CHI	Anthony Miller	Rookie year already posted seven TDs on just 33 catches for 423 yards. Had shoulder issues in final five games and torn labrum surgery in January. Love this pick this deep. Scored in six of his first nine games.
52		TEN	A.J. Brown	Maybe A.J. Brown was the fourth WR drafted this year and he has big talent. But so did Corey Davis who was the 1.05 pick of 2017 and he only caught 34 passes as a rookie. TEN with Marcus Mariota is a WR Siberia so far.
53		PIT	Donte Moncrief	Antonio Brown is gone and so far, Moncrief is the replacement. Maybe that doesn’t mean he’ll suddenly have 1,500 yards and 15 TDs but he’s bound to produce more than 600 yards which is what this level would suggest. Have to think he could end up with several WR3 quality games.
54		SF	Deebo Samuel	Cannot fault taking a high upside rookie though their history is spotty at best. 49ers depth chart is wide open and the passing game should impress if everyone just stays healthy for once. Samuel carries enough upside to merit a WR depth stash.
55		IND	Devin Funchess	If Funchess can remain the #2 WR for IND, he’ll outperform this ADP. Good pick at this point and gets to see what playing with a QB that will throw instead of run is all about.
56		PHI	DeSean Jackson	The Eagles are very diverse in their offense which is another way of saying they have a bunch of good but no great fantasy players. Jackson has drawn positive reviews in his return to PHI and almost a WR5 ADP is well worth taking. He is 33-years-old but Carson Wentz has been impressed so far.
57		BAL	Marquise Brown	Love this pick because it could be a total dud or it could be a shocking monster – and there is no way of knowing which. Brown was the first WR drafted this year and possesses elite open field skills. He is only 5-9 and 170 pounds but posted 75-1318-10 as a Junior in just 12 games for Oklahoma.  He ends up on a bad passing team but he can be used very creatively in BAL’s offense in the slot, out wide, wherever. He’s a blur that was hard to catch in college. Likely a far better best-ball pick, have to love his potential. And this deeply it won’t hurt too badly if he actually is a dud as a rookie.
58		PHI	J.J. Arcega-Whiteside	Another speculative pick and a decent passing offense but the Eagles will feature at least three other receivers over Whiteside so the consistency is likely not there for a fantasy start. But he has upside.
59		ARI	Andy Isabella	Another rookie with upside though he already has a “minor knee injury” and Kevin White was listed as the #3 WR on the first unofficial depth chart. ARI offense will be very diverse and that favors the #3 or even #4 WR but first-year QB and install of offense likely leave Isabella on your bench.
60		DAL	Michael Gallup	Seems a bit high for the #3 WR in Dallas but if Elliott doesn’t return, then DAL will be throwing more.

Best of the rest

Tyrell Williams (OAK) – I love this deep pick. He was as good as 1,059 yards and seven TDs while in LAC and now lines up across from Antonio Brown. If Williams isn’t better than the #60 WR, Jon Gruden will go all Chucky on him.

Jamison Crowder (NYJ) – Look, we’re throwing darts at this point but Crowder has potential in the Jets new offense since HC Adam Gase loved his slot receivers in Miami.

John Brown (BUF) – Never been a Brown fan but HC Sean McDermott never asks for my opinion. But he has talked up Brown like he was going to be the #1 WR for Josh Allen. So, yeah, grumpily climbing on the bandwagon. Lot’s of room too.

Trey Quinn (WAS) – He wasn’t just the last pick of the Skins last year. He was the last pick by anyone in the 2018 NFL draft (7.38). But Mr. Irrelevant is actually relevant. He’s taking the slot in WAS where the position was popular in the past.

Randall Cobb (DAL) – The Packers finally gave up on Cobb after eight years but the Cowboys have talked him up as a “huge addition” in Dallas where the bar is much, much lower than in Green Bay.  Cole Beasley had up to 75 catches per year in the slot for the Cowboys.

Robert Foster (BUF) – Pretty evident that few fantasy drafters are looking forward to the BUF passing game, but Foster only played in the final seven weeks of 2018 and yet posted three 100-yard games and scored three times. Zay Jones is still there and even Cole Beasley was added for the slot. But I was still impressed by Foster’s production at the end of 2018 even if apparently no one else was.