Sleepers and Value Plays: Running Backs

A sleeper running back is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him.  Average Draft Positions (ADP) are taken from MyFantasyLeague.com  using only real drafts conducted after July 15.

The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will unfold and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green check means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red “X” signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot.

Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

 Average Draft order – Value plays

ADP	Value	Tm	Name
1		NYG	Saquon Barkley	Ends up all that rookie hype about a “generational back” was pretty accurate.
2		CAR	Christian McCaffrey	107 catches. 1,965 total yards. 13 TDs. And no plan on dialing his touches back.
3		NO	Alvin Kamara	Never worse than the #4 RB in his two years and now Mark Ingram is gone. Yeah. Love the #3 spot this year.
4		DAL	Ezekiel Elliott	Damn you Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott. Don’t go breaking my heart. Until he signs, he tumbles past me.
5		ARI	David Johnson	With Elliott’s holdout, Johnson seems next best. High upside to be sure. But – his one great year was 2016 when ARI O-line was top-ten. Now it is bottom-ten. New offense could be huge for receptions or maybe Murray just runs past? High risk, high upside. Feel lucky?
6		NYJ	Le’Veon Bell	Another RB living on his past. No argument was a monster in PIT. No longer in PIT. Cheetos and cartoons on the couch for 2018. With Jets and their all-new offense, new coaches, bad O-line, 2019 will prove that Bell is a monster anywhere he goes. Or that he was the product of great O-line on a team with a terrifying passing game. Still feeling lucky?
7		PIT	James Conner	Maybe his ceiling isn’t as high as the first six, but was the #6 fantasy RB last year. His floor may be as high as anyone. Safer pick than Johnson or Bell but won’t feel as exciting.
8		CIN	Joe Mixon	Might be as talented as any RB. Offense wants to showcase him. Super solid pick that could go earlier than this and still pay off.
9		LAC	Melvin Gordon	Damn you Le’Veon Bell, Melvin Gordon. Don’t go breaking my heart. Until he signs, he tumbles past me.
10		LAR	Todd Gurley	He’s likely being undervalued and maybe spectacularly so. But 34 total yards and no score in the biggest game of his life? Good luck, amigo. Let me know how it ends up for you.
11		MIN	Dalvin Cook	There’s no denying that he has workhorse RB talent. He should be a top ten RB. Two years of injury and it is really hard to buy in. Upside is strongly here. Hard to take with that injury history though.
12		CLE	Nick Chubb	For first 8 weeks, could be the #1 rusher in the NFL. But then I think of Kareem Hunt returning on a one-year deal with everything to play for after his suspension is up. Scares me, in a manly way. Prefer the full Chubb at the end of the year, not first.
13		KC	Damien Williams	This is what happens when a very average back plays for a very great offense. So long as Carlos Hyde doesn’t show up, Williams likely better than this spot.
14		JAC	Leonard Fournette	Another back with injury concerns but undeniable upside. New offense wants to feature him as runner and receiver.  Totaled 1,342 yards and 10 TDs as a rookie over 13 games. Nice schedule but below average O-line.
15		DET	Kerryon Johnson	Another back with injury concerns but undeniable upside. New offense wants to feature him as runner and receiver.  Lions want to become a run-first team for the first time since Barry Sanders. Was on pace for 1,400 total yards last year along with 50+ receptions.
16		OAK	Josh Jacobs	Concerning that Jacobs wasn’t even the primary rusher at Alabama but dual-threat with minimal competition in the backfield. And pretty fresh too. Lots of upside from the first RB drafted this year. Defenses will worry more about Antonio Brown.
17		GB	Aaron Jones	Another back with injury concerns but undeniable upside. New offense wants to feature him as runner and receiver.  Has a career 5.5 YPC and can catch. Cannot fault the pick since GB wants more passing to RBs.
18		IND	Marlon Mack	Less high on Mack who either had monster games or flops with few in between. Colts want him to be a workhorse whatever that means in an Andrew Luck offense. May very well end up better than this and has a good O-line that matters. But minimal work as a receiver and kinda up and down from week to week.
19		TEN	Derrick Henry	Henry finally blew up over the final month of 2018 and TEN intends to finally ride him as a workhorse. Great schedule helps and O-line is not a liability. Lack of receptions not ideal, but should outperform this spot with his rushing alone.
20		ATL	Devonta Freeman	Missed almost all of 2018 with knee and foot problems. But had been a 1,500-yard, 13+ TD RB in 2015 and 2016. HC Dan Quinn says Freeman looks fully recovered and ready to be featured. If he stays healthy, this is a steal.
21		CHI	David Montgomery	David Montgomery is hoped to be everything that Jordan Howard was not. Bears have a great schedule and good O-line. Should challenge for best rookie RB of the year. Dual-threat hand-picked to be showcased in Matt Nagy’s offense. Love this pick here.
22		DEN	Phillip Lindsay	Lindsay was perhaps the biggest Week 1 surprise in fantasy history last year since he was buried in every depth chart except for the Broncos secret one. Concern is that Broncos want to pair Lindsay more with Royce Freeman who was supposed to be the man last year. Signing Theo Riddick as third-down back doesn’t promote a warm and fuzzy feeling either.
23		NE	Sony Michel	Great O-line, offense that loves to run. Won me a ton of cash in the playoffs. But – has a knee condition that has to be “managed” and had surgery on it. Almost never catches a pass. And now Damien Harris was fifth RB drafted in April. I’d let him slide but he could be golden at least in some games.
24		BAL	Mark Ingram	Like this pick. Ingram leaves NO and lands on another team with a good O-line and a great schedule. Lamar Jackson concerns the first and second level of defense, so Ingram could really surprise here. No problem with this RB2. None at all.

Sleepers and over-valued players

ADP	Value	Tm	Name
25		MIA	Kenyan Drake	Want to like Drake. Probably a solid pick here in a PPR league. Concerned about terrible O-line, new offense that seems likely for RBBC and hearing more about Kalen Ballage lately. RB3 worthy and maybe better in a PPR league. But a little risk too.
26		WAS	Derrius Guice	Skins have a below-average O-line, yet another offensive coordinator and Guice returns from a torn ACL that killed his rookie year and already had a hamstring issue in camp. Oh yes, and Adrian Peterson is still there talking about another 2,000 yard season (hint – uh, probably not). But hard to get a good feel for what Guice is going to do this year. Less risky options at this point.
27		NE	James White	White was the #7 fantasy back in PPR leagues last year with 87 receptions. If no reception points, then he’s this good at best. With reception points, this feels like a steal.
28		SEA	Chris Carson	Surprised last year with 1,151 yards and nine TDs. SEA wanted Rashaad Penny to be the primary but Carson was just plain better. The backfield may be a committee, but Carson gets his share on a team that actually rushes more than it throws. 267 touches last year and could be more in 2019.
29		CHI	Tarik Cohen	In a PPR league, can see this.  Ended with 71 receptions and totaled 1,169 yards and eight TDs last year. But addition of David Montgomery could dial back Cohen’s third-down impact. Not my pick since almost no upside here.
30		SEA	Rashaad Penny	The 1B of the SEA backfield is expected to take a bigger role after just 85 carries and nine catches as a first-round rookie. Reports are that he is faster and more agile in camp. Penny did battle nagging injuries and flashed some as a rookie. But almost no role as a receiver limits him.
31		PHI	Miles Sanders	Self-admitted lover of rookie RBs, how can the second RB drafted this year not be highly coveted? Well. There is Jordan Howard who has been talked up as the primary rusher.  No RB had more than 120 carries there last year in the NFL’s worst RBBC. If all the RBs there get injured, I am all over Sanders. But he’ll need to be spectacular in preseason games to expect a heavy workload.
32		SF	Tevin Coleman	Liking this. Coleman reunites with Kyle Shanahan, knows his system and is expected to be the primary back there. Granted – a committee will be used but that’s undefined behind Coleman. I’d take this RB3 plunge. And have several times.
33		LAR	Darrell Henderson	Exactly what to expect from Henderson is impossible to say since Todd Gurley’s workload is not certain. But Henderson will see some time regardless. A must-have for the Gurley owner, but worth stealing? Not as sure. If they manage Gurley all year, then Henderson likely never turns in enough touches to merit a fantasy start.
34		HOU	Lamar Miller	Expectation is that the 28-year-old Miller plays out final year of contract and moves on in 2020. D’Onta Foreman was supposed to challenge him for the primary rusher role but was released which should make Miller a safe starter all season.  HOU O-line among one of the worst and schedule not that great. Miller gets a little worse each year in HOU.
35		CLE	Kareem Hunt	Who knows? Sits out for eight weeks. Maybe no reason why the Browns disrupt their offense and he’s a bit player and backup. Maybe he balls out with every touch knowing he is on a one-year deal and needs to show up big to end up with a starting gig in 2020 somewhere else. Maybe the Browns trade him at the deadline to an RB-hungry team.  But the #4 fantasy RB as a rookie is pure upside.
36		LAC	Austin Ekeler	Ekeler seems like a complementary player with marginal upside but the holdout by Gordon has to net him more work if it extends into the season. Nothing wrong with this pick even if Gordon signs and a steal if he doesn’t.
37		PHI	Jordan Howard	Howard lands on the Eagles where committee backfields thrive and no one player ends up that busy. But Howard looks like the lock for the primary rusher role (such as it is) and the preferred goal-line guy.  Maybe not as much upside as he once had in CHI, but he’s likely to do at least this well if not better.
38		DEN	Royce Freeman	Is slated to see more work than his 130 carries and 14 catches as a rookie. He needs to show up better in preseason games to merit this high of a pick. DEN offense not looking to be a juggernaut this year.
39		NO	Latavius Murray	The #2 RB in NO as the 39th RB taken? Let me back up the car and we can shovel all of the Murrays into my trunk. Ingram spent four straight years as the #6 to #14 fantasy RB when not suspended. Murray is not Ingram, but he’s going to be better than the #39 RB.
40		TB	Ronald Jones	Maybe he is a sleeper. He’s just 22 years old so maybe that 23 carry rookie season should be ignored. But he only gained 1.9 YPC for a supposed open-field speedster. TB still has one of the worst O-lines. By this point, a swing for the fence is fine to make but still too high to me for a guy that just never showed anything in 2018. A good preseason game will help him.
41		NE	Damien Harris	Being the #3 RB on any team is rarely a recipe for success but Harris plays for the Pats that are now a big-time rushing team. More importantly, Sony Michel has durability issues and the Pats spent their third-round pick on him. Maybe he does nothing this year. Maybe he is the primary back eventually. Worth a speculative pick.
42		PIT	Jaylen Samuels	Samuels filled in for James Conner a few times last year and looked great, including a 152-yard effort against NE. At worst, he’s the #2 RB in PIT with some weekly fantasy value as a change-of-pace, third-down kind of guy. At best, he ends up in a timeshare with Conner. Great O-line and great RB schedule make this pick a worthwhile speculation.
43		BUF	LeSean McCoy	31-year-old McCoy fell off the map in 2018 with 3.2 YPC and only 3 TDs. Rumors are he could be traded or cut. Bills added Frank Gore, T.J. Yeldon and Devin Singletary. Throw in a below-average O-line and this is one backfield to avoid.
44		HOU	D’Onta Foreman	Was a surprise release.
45		IND	Nyheim Hines	Only gained 3.7 YPC on 85 runs behind a great O-line but caught 63 passes for 425 yards as a rookie. 800 total yards and four TDs may be his ceiling. Bye week filler mostly.
46		TB	Peyton Barber	Playing behind bad O-line and being challenged, again, by an RB who only ran for 1.9 YPC is not exactly confidence-inspiring. But same was true last year when he turned in 963 total yards and six TDs. He is the starting RB until unseated so this deep in draft is a solid pick. Risky but a good pick at least until Ronald Jones actually shows up in a game.
47		BAL	Justice Hill	In a best-ball league, Hill is a fine pick since he could turn in a few big games from breaking a long run or catch. But in a redraft league, he’s a #3 RB on a team that doesn’t throw even on third down. Another guy that could gain value with a big showing in the preseason.
48		SF	Jerick McKinnon	Had his big opportunity in SF ruined with a blown knee and returns still not 100% healthy from it. Risky pick but if he gets healthy and provides a third-down role in the Kyle Shanahan offense, he will provide at least PPR league startability.
49		ATL	Ito Smith	With Tevin Coleman gone, there’s a hole that this #2 RB should fill but he only managed 3.5 YPC as a rookie and was marginal as a receiver. Rookie Qadree Ollison and even Brian Hill could challenge him. Doesn’t spawn enough confidence that he’ll be a productive #2 RB all season.
50		MIA	Kalen Ballage	Fins offense is shaping up to be shaky again and their O-line may be the worst in the NFL. That all said, Ballage is expected to pair with Kenyan Drake though he won’t catch much. The 6-2, 231-pound Ballage could end up as the primary rusher and he gained 5.3 YPC, somehow, behind that O-line last year. Worth the pick here and maybe a bit earlier.
51		WAS	Adrian Peterson	Once Derrius Guice was lost in 2018, Peterson stepped in as the primary back and ended with 1,250 yards and eight TDs. Peterson seems convinced that he can do even better this year despite Guice coming back. That’s unlikely but Guice is no proven commodity or particularly durable so far. Peterson makes a great RB5 or even RB4.
52		BUF	Devin Singletary	Singletary is a great pick in a dynasty league as a stash player. but in a redraft league, he is the #3 or #4 RB on a bad offense with a bad O-line. Unless he swims past the logjam with a monster preseason game, not bothering with the Bills backfield.
53		MIN	Alexander Mattison	Maybe Dalvin Cook can stay healthy and become the stud expected since 2017. Or maybe Mattison replaces Latavius Murray and repeats his 800-yard, 6 TD totals from each of the last two years. Mattison a must-have for the Cook owner but worth a shot anyway.
54		TEN	Dion Lewis	Lewis is just the latest ex-NE RB that proved one good year there means nothing for the next team. Handcuff for Henry but not expected to be any better than his 400-yard, 1 TD 2018.
55		KC	Carlos Hyde	Damien Williams was an undrafted journeyman RB until the end of 2018. Hyde a second-rounder starter until last year though with plenty of durability issues. Hyde’s best year was 1,288 total yards and 8 TDs with 59 catches. Williams was 416 yards and 6 TDs with 23 catches. Just saying. Hyde worth owning as an RB6 to be sure.
56		SF	Matt Breida	I would not take a #3 RB this early. Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon should sponge up most of the fantasy value but Breida started 2018 standing on the side but ended 1,075 yards and 5 TDs.
57		CLE	Duke Johnson	My take – Johnson wants out because he knows he only plays the first half of year until Kareem Hunt is there. But CLE needs him there until Kareem Hunt is there. Then, maybe Johnson is traded at the deadline or just kept knowing that Hunt is on a one-year deal and likely gone in 2020. Messy situation. Could end up great if he is traded Week 8 to a team with hurt RBs though. Heads up – waiting 8 weeks is an eternity in fantasy football.
58		LAC	Justin Jackson	Handcuff for Melvin Gordon. And until Gordon returns, Jackson is worth far more than the #58 RB. Until Gordon shows up, I’d stash Jackson knowing maybe I have a starting RB for very little money. If Gordon signs, then you have someone to drop in free agency.
59		WAS	Chris Thompson	By this late, I am looking for pure upside players. And Thompson does not fit that bill. Missed 12 games over last two years and firmly behind Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson. Guice could become the preferred receiver out of the backfield. No thanks.
60		ARI	Chase Edmonds	The second-year back is getting good reviews from new coaches in ARI and they claim he will have a role in the offense even with David Johnson expected to take the workhorse job. Great handcuff for Johnson who hasn’t always been durable anyway.

Best of the rest

C.J. Anderson (DET) – Must-have handcuff for the Kevin Johnson owner and three-straight 100-yard games for the Rams says the 28-year-old back still has plenty left in the tank. Johnson hardly a picture of durability anyway so Anderson makes an interesting depth stash.

Tony Pollard (DAL) – The talk about the next “Alvin Kamara” is probably wildly optimistic, but the reality is that Ezekiel Elliott’s holdout could last into the season and the Cowboys have a good O-line. 104 catches while at Memphis says Pollard is a third-down option and 6-0 and 210 pounds says he has the size to also run the ball. Alfred Morris signing figures in potentially, but Pollard looks like the best bet if Elliott continues to eat tacos in Cabo.

Qadree Ollison (ATL) – Ito Smith doesn’t create a lot of confidence and Ollison is a 6-1, 232-pound bruiser that could take over in helping out Devonta Freeman.

Ryquell Armstead (JAC) – The backfield is unsettled behind Leonard Fournette (and completely unsettled if Fournette is injured yet again). Worth at least tracking in the preseason and could end up beating out the mediocre Alfred Blue for the #2 RB.

Alfred Morris (DAL) – Has value so long as Elliott is holding out and could be a regular-season factor should it all last that long. He offers the veteran presence in an otherwise young backfield and played in the system 2016 and 2017. But the 31-year-old back isn’t likely to offer more than moderate production and if Elliott returns, Morris might be on the next Southwest Airlines flight out of town.