Sleepers and Value Plays: Quarterbacks

A sleeper quarterback is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him. Average Draft Positions (ADP) are taken from MyFantasyLeague.com using only recent drafts.

See also:
Sleepers and Value Plays: Running Backs
Sleepers and Value Plays: Wide Receivers
Sleepers and Value Plays: Tight Ends

The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will happen and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Green highlight means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red highlight signifies a bad value or at least too high of a risk for that spot.

This year, the Top-8 picks are almost always what you see below in ADP, and the position is more volatile when you pick your backup. It’s usually fine to wait on a quarterback in most fantasy leagues, but don’t wait on a backup quarterback.

Average Draft order – Value plays

ADP	Tm	Quarterback	Analysis
1	KC	Pat Mahomes	It’s a coin flip between Mahomes and Allen with no wrong answer.
2	BUF	Josh Allen	Top QB last year and rushing ensures fantasy points every week.
3	ARI	Kyler Murray	Two years in and never worse than No. 7. His No. 2 last season could repeat and costs a full round or two after Allen and Mahomes.
4	BAL	Lamar Jackson	Rushing keeps him consistent and has new targets to help passing. Better schedule also a plus.
5	DAL	Dak Prescott	Prescott on fire in 2020 but then got hurt. Healthy now, but still a bit of risk losing some of his rushing fantasy points. If stays healthy, then this is a big value.
6	LAC	Justin Herbert	Turned in No. 8 stats as a rookie but most points were vs. NFC South that won’t repeat. No. 2 schedule in 2020 falls to No. 23 and Herbert looks a tad Sophomore slump-ish.
7	SEA	Russell Wilson	Tough schedule but some upgrades in receivers. Three of last four years were higher than this. Always solid.
8	GB	Aaron Rodgers	Sadly, the MVP of… wait. He’s back? Geez. Rodgers is always solid but he had the lightest schedule in 2020. This feels very right for a player that can turn in more than a few monster games.
9	TB	Tom Brady	I’d never draft a 44 Y.O. QB, but he was No. 7 last year. His inability to age would have gotten him stoned back in medieval times. I mean with actual rocks. Can’t argue against this, though. Making every other 44 Y.O. feel really bad about themselves.
10	LAR	Matthew Stafford	Had a thumb scare but is ok. The Rams offense is very similar to what he had in DET a few years back in terms of talent. He’s not going to run, but he was Top-10 until Matt Patricia took over HC for a few seasons..
11	PHI	Jalen Hurts	By this point, you waited and loaded up elsewhere and that is OK. Hurts is interesting in that he has the Heisman Trophy winner to catch passes, usually ran for 50 yards per game and has a lighter schedule. His rushing production lifts his fantasy value to this level.
12	TEN	Ryan Tannehill	This is slightly lower than what Tannehill did last year and he did get Julio Jones as an upgrade. The concern is most of his fantasy points were passing touchdowns thanks to every defense worried more about Henry running it in. Also has the No. 29 pass schedule. He’s a sleeper to some, but history doesn’t like QBs that pass for lots of touchdowns and not as many yards (3,819 yards vs. 33 touchdowns). If Henry ever gets hurt, then Tannehill takes on all new fantasy potential.

 

Sleepers and Overvalued players

ADP	Tm	Quarterback
13	CIN	Joe Burrow	The knee injury is concerning. But Burrow is not much of a runner anyway, and half his rookie games were 300+ yards. Now he has his BFF Ja’Marr Chase and a better schedule. Solid pick as a fantasy backup long as the knee is no issue.
14	ATL	Matt Ryan	Ryan threw for 4,000+ yards in each of the last ten years. Been a lock for 25 touchdowns. He’s been fantasy starter worthy since 2009. Jones is gone, but he wasn’t around much last year. Far better schedule and still a very “iffy” rushing offense adds fuel to the fire.
15	JAX	Trevor Lawrence	Picking up fantasy backups, why not grab the No. 1 overall pick in the draft who was “born to QB.” There are offensive tools in Jacksonville and yet one of the worst defenses from 2020 is back to keep Lawrence needing to throw late in games.
16	HOU	Deshaun Watson	I get the lottery ticket notion. But man, just doesn’t look like this year is going to happen for him in the NFL. And the league hasn’t said much with all the many lawsuits and such. If you need risky thrill, just saddle up a rookie running back or wideout.
17	CLE	Baker Mayfield	Three years in NFL and never better than No. 16, or worse than No. 17. Here’s a salute to fantasy mediocrity. This is a perfect spot for him.
18	IND	Carson Wentz	The Colts have a great schedule and Wentz could restart his career. But injuring his foot and needing surgery, coupled with between 5 and 12 weeks recovery means no thanks.
19	MIN	Kirk Cousins	Maybe he hasn’t racked up the wins they wanted, but Cousins has made stars of his receivers and been Top-12 nearly every season, including 2020 (No. 11). You could do much worse for a fantasy backup.
20	SF	Trey Lance	Most of the remaining quarterbacks are just deep backups that hopefully never do more than cover a bye week. Lance is super raw with just one good year at college. And he opted out last year. But his one good season saw him throw for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns, and run for 1,100 yards and 14 more scores. Running rookie quarterbacks facing the No. 4 passing schedule is always interesting. Could be a dangerous fit in that offense.
21	CHI	Justin Fields	He’s certainly worth a dart throw this late. He’ll likely be on the field sooner than later, but the Bears offense under Matt Nagy is always a concern. This late in a draft, no harm.
22	NE	Cam Newton	Only problem with Newton is will he be there when you need him to cover a bye week?
23	WAS	Ryan Fitzpatrick	Sure, he is on his 43rd NFL team. But he’s always been better than expected and certainly beats anything seen in Washington last year.
24	PIT	Ben Roethlisberger	How the mighty have fallen. If his elbow doesn’t flare up again this year, then this is a steal but a bad O-line and below average schedule is not going to help.

Best of the Rest

Sam Darnold (CAR) – Maybe Darnold really is a bust, but maybe it was just playing on the Jets under Adam Gase. With D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and Christian McCaffrey, Darnold gets to experience what an actual offense can look like.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – He posted two 300-yard games as a rookie and the weaponry has been upgraded for Miami. He’s worth a backup pick.