A sleeper quarterback is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him. Average Draft Positions (ADP) are taken from MyFantasyLeague.com using only real drafts conducted after July 15.
The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will happen and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green check means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red “X” signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot.
Average Draft order – Value plays
| ADP | Value | Tm | Name | |
| 1 | KC | Patrick Mahomes | 5000 yards, 50 TDs in his first year playing? Yeah. Nice pick. | |
| 2 | HOU | Deshaun Watson | Rushing and passing totals make him a top-three QB in almost every draft. | |
| 3 | IND | Andrew Luck | The reports of his NFL career death were greatly exaggerated. 39 TDs last year and better receivers now. | |
| 4 | GB | Aaron Rodgers | Always elite when healthy and this year opponents not sure what to expect in the new offense. | |
| 5 | CLE | Baker Mayfield | Even Brett Favre said he reminds him of Brett Favre. He’s made the Browns competitive. Let that sink in. | |
| 6 |  |
SEA | Russell Wilson | This may be a bit high. The Seahawks ran more than any other team last year. Wilson was only #10 in 2018 and was healthy. |
| 7 | ATL | Matt Ryan | Matt Ryan is either a top QB or barely average and does it every other year. Last year was big. 2017 he was #14. | |
| 8 | |
PHI | Carson Wentz | I won’t touch a guy that gets injured every year. Just too many other options. Great when healthy. Might be huge. Gonna happen on someone else’s team though. |
| 9 |  |
ARI | Kyler Murray | This is too high for an untested QB on a brand new offense with a questionable O-line. But I can dig it. He is my QB2 on every team I can draft. Is going to run a lot. If he can connect with receivers, maybe the next Mayfield, Watson, etc.. |
| 10 | CAR | Cam Newton | Needs to stay healthy and coming back from a shoulder injury. But has ended in the top-two for QB twice in the last four years. | |
| 11 | |
LAR | Jared Goff | Goff ended as the #6 QB last year with 4,688 yards and 34 TDs. This year Rams will be prepared in case Gurley goes AWOL again. Goff has plenty of targets. Plenty. |
| 12 | TB | Jameis Winston | Solid pick. Winston also has plenty of talented targets, a poor rushing game and HC Bruce Arians whispering QB tips and techniques to him. |
Sleepers and over-valued players
| ADP | Value | Tm | Name | |
| 13 | |
NO | Drew Brees | Maybe his years as a top-five QB are over, but Brees as a backup? Yeah, I can deal with that. Still ended as the #8 QB last year. |
| 14 | |
DAL | Dak Prescott | Maybe Prescott hasn’t been better than the #9 QB in his three years, but he also has never been worse than #12 and now he has Cooper, Cobb, Gallup, and Witten. And if no Elliott, then plenty of Prescott. |
| 15 | |
PIT | Ben Roethlisberger | Comes off a career year but loses Antonio Brown. No one is sure quite where he belongs. I’d let someone else figure that out. 2018 was the first time in four years that he played all 16 games. |
| 16 | |
BAL | Lamar Jackson | Granted. His passing was the worst in the league. And his rushing was best in NFL history. As a backup, willing to see if his passing improves. |
| 17 | CHI | Mitchell Trubisky | Solid fantasy backup QB so far. Has a far better schedule and healthy receivers in the second season of HC Matt Nagy’s offense. | |
| 18 | |
MIN | Kirk Cousins | Apparently, the specter of Dalvin Cook being used as a full-time RB plus a tougher schedule drops Cousins who was top-ten in each year since 2014. Seems like a very sweet backup this deep. |
| 19 | SF | Jimmy Garoppolo | There’s always a chance he plays more than 6 games for the first time in his six-year NFL career. Coming back from an ACL injury but in a QB-friendly offense. He’ll be much better than this… if he stays healthy. | |
| 20 | LAC | Philip Rivers | Yeah, he’s 38 years old. And he was #13 last year. But he was top-ten in the five years prior. Another great pick for backup QB. And if Gordon situation goes south, then Rivers will be throwing and throwing and … | |
| 21 | |
NYJ | Sam Darnold | He’s more talented than this but maybe his receivers are not. All new offense by HC Adam Gase didn’t exactly light a fire in Miami last year but it did get him fired. Too early to buy in. |
| 22 | NE | Tom Brady | Maybe Pats fans consider it sacrilegious, but Tommy was only #11 last year and NE brought in more RBs and lost Gronk. And at 42 years old, fantasy owners hold their breath until he gets back up after every hit. | |
| 23 | |
BUF | Josh Allen | He was red hot to end 2018 and ran over 90 yards in four of last six games. He’ll improve passing and hopefully still run at least some of the time. |
| 24 | DET | Matthew Stafford | Stafford is another long-time top-ten QB that dropped to only #20 last year. He never runs and the offense wants to feature everyone else running. Not bad, just not an advantage anymore. |
Best of the Rest:
Derek Carr – As a deep fantasy back-up, the new offense in Oakland is stocked with Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams, J.J. Nelson and pass-catching RB Josh Jacobs. Deserves to be on a fantasy roster from his upside. If he cannot be in the top 24 for QBs with Antonio Brown there, then HC Jon Gruden gots some explaining to do.
