While the US tightens its employment-based green card rules and allows backlogs to grow, Canada, Europe, and China are rolling out red-carpet visas for the same pool of highly skilled workers.
By 2025, the world's leading engineers, researchers and physicians will be faced with a stark choice: either wait for up to a decade in America's employment-based green card queue, where they will have to contend with soaring costs and new punitive rules, or accept a streamlined, predictable path in Toronto, Berlin or Shanghai.
The U.S. remains the dream destination for many, but the maths have changed. Although the American economy still relies on immigrant talent — foreign-born individuals founded 55% of U.S. unicorn companies and account for the majority of international patent applications at America’s leading research universities — Washington is quietly pushing that talent away.
A Tiny Slice of the Pie: Why Only 6% of Green Cards Go to Workers
The U.S. issues approximately 1–1.2 million green cards each year. The overwhelming majority of these are for family reunification. Employment-based categories (EB-1 to EB-5) are capped at around 140,000 visas per year, which often amounts to just 6–8% of the total when family spillover is minimal.
Even in years of record employment-based allocations (nearly 280,000 in FY 2023–24 thanks to temporary spillover), the per-country cap of 7% leads to absurd distortions. For example, an Indian PhD graduate specialising in AI could face a theoretical wait of 50–100 years for an EB-2 visa, whereas a similarly qualified Canadian or German could advance within months.
In a recent Mercatus Center paper, George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen noted that “America is systematically under-investing in its own comparative advantage — the ability to attract and retain the world’s best minds”. The consequences are not just individual hardship, but a slow-motion competitive surrender.
Life in a Queue: The EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 backlog in human terms
The November 2025 Visa Bulletin tells the story through hard facts: EB-2 India remains frozen at 1 January 2013, meaning that anyone who filed an application after this date cannot yet apply for a green card. The situation is even worse for EB-3 India. EB-1, once the 'fast lane' for extraordinary talent, exhausted its entire FY 2025 allocation months early.
Behind every priority date, there is a person living in limbo.
Dr A (name withheld), a cancer researcher specialising in EB-1A at a leading US medical centre, has not left the country for four years. Even a single trip could result in him being stranded abroad if advance parole is delayed. 'I missed my father's funeral in 2024,' he says. “The uncertainty is corrosive.”
Mr S—, a machine learning engineer who was sponsored for an EB-2 NIW visa, has watched colleagues from Mexico and France receive green cards, yet his priority date has not moved in eight years. His children, who are now teenagers, are approaching the age limit for derivative status and will be ineligible for a green card once they turn 21.
Nurse M—, who was sponsored for an EB-3 visa during the pandemic, has finally had her interview date set — for 2031. The hospitals that once fought to retain her services are now recruiting in the Philippines and Nigeria.
These are not just anecdotes; they are the inevitable result of a system that disregards high-skilled workers.
Policy Shock in 2025: How New Rules are Rewriting the Risk Calculus
The second Trump administration acted quickly and decisively.
On 19 September 2025, a presidential proclamation imposed a supplemental fee of $100,000 on certain new H-1B petitions, effectively pricing all but the largest employers out of the market for talent currently outside the United States. Guidance from USCIS clarified that the fee applies to any beneficiary abroad without a valid H-1B visa stamp. This turned what was once a routine cap-exempt extension into a six-figure gamble.
Then, on 30 October 2025, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) abruptly ended the 540-day automatic extension to Employment Authorisation Documents (EADs) that had enabled hundreds of thousands of people to continue working legally while United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) processed renewal applications. Anyone filing a renewal on or after that date now risks experiencing gaps in their authorisation to work, which could last for months or even years.
Finally, USCIS has resumed its aggressive interpretation of 'abandonment of permanent resident status'. Green card holders who spend more than six months abroad for legitimate business reasons are receiving notices of intent to revoke at an unprecedented rate.
The message to employers is clear: sponsoring foreign talent now involves unpredictable, multi-year risks and the potential for seven-figure ancillary costs. Forward-thinking companies are responding rationally by setting up laboratories in Canada, research and development hubs in Germany and captive centres in India, rather than fighting Washington’s bureaucracy.
While Washington Hesitates, Rivals Roll Out the Red Carpet
China wasted no time. On 1 October 2025, Beijing launched the K-visa, which is explicitly designed to compete with the H-1B visa and is aimed at STEM professionals under 45. There is no labour market test or prevailing wage requirement, the initial validity is five years, and there is a direct path to permanent residence for those who meet innovation metrics. The application portal is entirely in English, and first-month approvals reportedly take under 30 days.
Canada, never one to shy away from poaching talent, announced a relaunch of the accelerated H-1B pathway in its 2025 federal budget — this time permanent and uncapped for certain STEM and healthcare occupations, offering immediate open work permits for spouses and children. Within weeks of the U.S. fee announcement, applications from U.S.-based H-1B holders surged by 400%.
Meanwhile, Europe has weaponised 'scientific asylum'. France's Passeport Talent – Chercheur programme now fast-tracks U.S. researchers who are facing grant terminations or ideological pressure. It offers them a four-year residence permit and EU-wide mobility. Germany’s Chancenkarte (Opportunity Card) has expanded its criteria to include U.S. PhD holders and now accepts English-only applications. Similar English-language talent schemes have been introduced in the Netherlands, Denmark and Portugal.
The contrast is striking. While the US demands decades of patience and six-figure penalties, competitors offer certainty within months and often provide higher net-of-tax compensation once housing costs are factored in.
Winners, Losers and the Future of High-Skilled Migration
The winners are clear: Toronto house prices, European university rankings, Chinese patent filings and Canadian hospital staffing levels are all increasing thanks to American policy choices.
The losers are America’s innovation ecosystems. Start-ups that once tolerated PERM delays are now setting up shop in Canada from day one. Research hospitals are facing shortages of physicians even as EB-3 dates are becoming less favourable. Flagship universities are seeing their top postdocs accept offers in Zurich and Singapore rather than risking 'aging out'.
Reform remains possible. Congress could reclaim the millions of unused green cards issued since 1990, raise or eliminate per-country caps, establish a robust startup visa programme, or simply grant a green card to every U.S. STEM PhD graduate — a policy that would generate significant returns.
Until that happens, the world's best minds will continue to leave.
What immigrants can still do — and what law firms can’t fix.
Experienced immigration lawyers cannot create new visa numbers or overrule political decisions. However, we can significantly enhance outcomes within the existing system.
Strategic category selection (EB-1A vs. EB-2, NIW vs. O-1), the aggressive use of expedited processing, mandamus litigation against unreasonable delays and creative concurrent filing strategies can move cases years ahead of the standard timeline. We help families preserve the eligibility of children who are approaching the age limit through CSPA calculations that most applicants never discover. We compile evidence packages that withstand the toughest requests for evidence (RFEs).
One client, an Indian AI researcher who had been stuck in the EB-2 category for nine years, received EB-1A approval within seven months of us rebuilding his case around his role as first author on papers published in Nature and attestations from venture funding bodies. Another client, a physician facing an EB-3 interview in 2030, secured NIW approval and will be interviewed next month.
Another client recently wrote: 'You didn't just file papers. You gave us back the ability to plan for the future.”
Even in a broken system, good lawyering can still achieve something. However, only policy change can fix the system itself.
