Before the season began, we identified the key areas that could swing the Penguins’ season in one direction or the other. We called it, “Six stats that will shape the Penguins season.”
Now, after a 56-game sprint, how did they do?
Well, after revisiting those stats it’s clear that not only did the Penguins pass a number of these tests, they excelled. It’s no wonder the Penguins clinched the East Division.
1. Tristan Jarry’s second-half save percentage: .918%
Penguins goalie Maxime Lagace makes a save on Sabres center Sam Reinhart Saturday, May 8, 2021, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh.
Mike DeFabo
Maxime Lagace shuts out Buffalo, Penguins clinch East Division title
During his breakout season in 2019-20, Jarry did enough in the first half of the season to earn his first All-Star game nod and convince the Penguins he could be the goaltender of the future. The question we posed ahead of the season was: Could he take that small sample size and replicate it when it mattered?
It sure seems so.
Jarry got off to a rocky start as the new No. 1 netminder. After allowing nine goals on the first 33 shots he faced, the Penguins more or less shut down Jarry for a week to clean up his mechanics and reset his mind. He started the year 2-4-1 with a dismal .857 save percentage.
The major turning point was Valentine’s Day. In 32 appearances beginning on Feb. 14, he went 23-5-2 with a .919 save percentage.
Since we said “second half,” we’ll draw a line down the middle of the 39 total appearances. In the last 20 outings, he’s 14-2-2 with a .918 save percentage and a pair of shutouts against the Washington Capitals and Boston Bruins. The Penguins should feel pretty confident that Jarry will be ready when it matters.
2. Mike Matheson/Cody Ceci Twitter mentions
When the Penguins acquired two defensive castoffs, it wasn’t hard to imagine a worst-case scenario. Matheson was a healthy scratch in Florida in the postseason, while fans of two separate fan bases were ready to ship Ceci to the coldest corner of Siberia.
Before the year, we wondered aloud if these two defensemen would do enough to upgrade the Penguins’ leaky third pair. Turns out, they did a lot more than that. Eventually, Ceci and Matheson clicked so well together, and they leapfrogged Marcus Pettersson and John Marino – at least on paper – to become the second pair.
Matheson has been using the freedom the Penguins give their defensemen to flash his offensive upside and his elite skating. Meanwhile, Ceci consistently is using his mobility to join the rush. He’s also been a solid penalty-killing option who can be trusted in his own zone. Now, that Matheson trade looks like a win for both teams and the $1.25 million the Penguins gave Ceci as a free agent looks like one of the biggest bargains of the offseason.
If people are mentioning these two on Twitter, it’s not the chirps we expected.
3. Percentage of high-danger chances created by the third line: 56%
The Penguins lineup has been in constant flux, so we’ll analyze this stat based on how it looks right now with Jeff Carter centering the third line. In Carter’s 14 games, the Penguins have produced 56% of the high-danger chances at 5-on-5 play when their new forward is on the ice. That’s the best among Penguins’ forwards. Second on the team? His left winger Jared McCann, who has been on the ice for 54.49% of the high-danger chances over 43 games.
While an unproductive third line contributed to the Penguins’ early exit to the 2020 playoffs, a new-look third line could become a major x-factor this year.
Carter still has wheels and the scoring touch of a player who once netted 46 goals in a season. At the same time, he’s a responsible two-way player who has received votes for the Selke on multiple occasions. The Penguins trust his defensive abilities enough to play him on the penalty kill. Now in the postseason, Carter’s addition gives the Penguins a solid, two-way line that adds another scoring threat behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
4. Kasperi Kapanen total points: 30
Opinions were mixed when the Penguins acquired Kapanen in exchange for a package that included a first-round pick. Though his Penguins debut was delayed, his skating and big shot appear to be a good fit in Pittsburgh.
In 40 games, Kapanen tallied 30 points. That total likely would be much higher if he didn’t go through injury issues and that slow start. His 2.9 points per 60 minutes ranked fourth among regular Penguins forwards behind only Crosby, Jared McCann and Jake Guentzel. The best spurts came when Kapanen was playing alongside Malkin. In the eight games before Malkin went down, Kapanen tallied four goals and five assists. Now, they’ll try to recreate that spark when the postseason begins.
5. Power play percentage: 23.7%
Fixing a stagnant power play was one of the main objectives for the Penguins entering this season. Todd Reirden encouraged the Penguins to add more movement and unpredictability with the man-advantage.
While they started slowly, they hit their stride as the season continued, especially when McCann joined the top unit. Currently, the Penguins boast the NHL’s fifth-best power play percentage, a very significant turnaround from last year or even from mid-February when they ranked 24th out of 31 teams.
6. Crosby/Malkin/Letang games missed: 35 total
When Jim Rutherford chose to keep the core intact, he was betting Crosby, Malkin and Kris Letang still had some elite hockey left to keep a championship window open. But first, they’d have to stay on the ice.
For the most part, they did. Crosby missed just one due to COVID-19 precautions. Letang sat out just one due to injury. And while Malkin missed 23 with his knee injury, the Penguins found a silver lining there. They transformed into a defense-first team during his absence to discover a brand of hockey that can win even when all the firepower isn’t in the lineup.
Now, all three will be healthy when it matters and will try to make another run at their fourth Stanley Cup together.
