Each year throughout the last decade, an average of 5.8 new teams have made the playoffs. Last year, we had six, the most surprising among them (though not in hindsight) was the Seahawks, who were coming off a fourth-place, 7–10 season and had traded franchise quarterback Russell Wilson to enter training camp with a competition between Geno Smith and Drew Lock under center. They serve as a reminder that almost anything is possible in the NFL. Parity is high, and, minus the small handful of teams whose quarterbacks are far above the capabilities of modern athletic performance and mental processing, most clubs have some semblance of a chance so long as they can find some period of cohesion and buy-in.
So, who are those 5.8 teams this year? Let’s round it up to six (the 2022 Colts are the only team I’ve seen in recent memory that I’d describe as 0.8 of a football team, but we can also round up to account for the numbers possibly changing over time in a league now with 14 playoff teams) and take a crack. It’s high time we get a chance to avenge last year’s absolutely embarrassing showing in this exercise, in which we projected *shivers* the Saints, Ravens, Broncos, Colts, Lions and Chargers as new playoff entrants.
Let’s put aside the Lions for now, given that they finished last season above .500, in second place, and are viewed as an ascending team most pundits will have in the playoffs this year. This list will stick to teams that finished in the bottom half of their divisions in 2022, with one AFC South–related exception.
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1. Los Angeles Rams
2022 record: 5–12, third in NFC West
Key additions: G Steve Avila (second-round pick), LB Byron Young (third-round pick), DT Kobie Turner (third-round pick)
While I don’t think we know yet what will become of Sean McVay’s major reorganization at the end of this past season (both his offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, and assistant head coach and tight ends coach, Thomas Brown, are in new locales), I think we can bet on boundary-pushing people setting themselves up with other boundary-pushing minds. Mike LaFleur, Nick Caley, Jake Peetz and Zac Robinson round out a group that, to me, has the chance to make this offense special. The Rams were injured last year, and, while we still can’t completely depend on the long-term health of Matthew Stafford, I think they can break out of the patterns of stagnation that slowed them down. L.A. had a boatload of mid-round picks that I think, if deployed correctly, could finally add the layer of depth we all struggled to find during their best seasons, when the team was a bit top-heavy and reliant on star power.
2. New England Patriots
2022 record: 8–9, third in AFC East
Key additions: TE Mike Gesicki, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, T Riley Reiff
In my 100 predictions column a few weeks ago, perhaps the boldest one (outside of projecting referee Carl Cheffers to explore a career in Americana music) was that the Patriots would win the AFC East. I’ll stand by that prediction for now because, as I wrote, I feel like that division is going to be a four-car pileup. While the Bills are a cut above everyone else, I don’t see them as invincible. I see this division as uniquely predisposed to injuries. Josh Allen plays a very physical quarterback style. Aaron Rodgers is 39. Tua Tagovailoa struggled with repeated head injuries last year. New England seems like the kind of team good enough to give everyone else a hard time and deep enough, especially on defense, to weather the inevitable ups and downs of a season.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
2022 record: 9–8, third in AFC North
Key additions: G Isaac Seumalo, T Broderick Jones (first-round pick), LB Elandon Roberts
The Steelers went 9–8 last season. How that is not ranked among the finest coaching performances of the last decade is beyond me. T.J. Watt, who missed 10 games a year ago, is back. Second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett will absolutely be better, and I heard both his velocity and deep ball distance have improved. While the team’s most critical infrastructure is on the older side (Cam Heyward is 34, Patrick Peterson will soon be 33, Damontae Kazee is 30), the injections of new life at cornerback and up front should give them a fresher dynamic. Also, I don’t mind having vets like Heyward when facing such an established division with most teams built to grind. One reason for faith is the reconstruction of the left side of Pittsburgh’s offensive line. The Steelers struggled to run the ball through most gaps but most notably struggled between the center and left guard, and left guard and left tackle.The addition of Isaac Seumalo (among my possible first-time Pro Bowlers), who will shepherd the growth of first-round pick Broderick Jones, should improve the impact Najee Harris can have on a down-by-down basis. Harris faced loaded boxes (eight or more defenders) on more than a quarter of his carries last year. He will likely do so again in 2023.
4. Atlanta Falcons
2022 record: 7–10, T-third in NFC South
Key additions: RB Bijan Robinson (first-round pick), S Jessie Bates III, DT David Onyemata
Last week on The MMQB Podcast cohost Albert Breer and I played a similar game, and he toed the line between the Falcons and the Saints with the thought being someone not named the Buccaneers will crawl out of the NFC South. Carolina will be a factor, though it’s rare for a rookie quarterback to pilot a team bad enough to hold a top-10 pick directly into the playoffs. I don’t know if I need to sell you on my vision for the Falcons any more. They’re fun. More than that, though, I think they are stable. Like the Patriots, and borrowing from my reasoning a little bit there, the division is going to be scattered enough that a team running the ball well and producing consistent, unsexy first downs will have the best chance of winning. The Saints are certainly in that category, though I’m not as infatuated with their strengths (and ages) at both offensive and defensive line.
5. Green Bay Packers
2022 record: 8–9, third in NFC North
Key additions: LB Lukas Van Ness (first-round pick), TE Luke Musgrave (second-round pick), TE Tucker Kraft (third-round pick)
So, yes, I think Jordan Love is going to be good. See my 100 bold predictions again for more on my obsession with Green Bay’s new tight end rotation and its exact win total I’ve predicted. Notice I didn’t say “great” and I also didn’t say “fine.” I also think the Packers’ defense underperformed significantly last year, and they were able to bolster their pass rush via the draft. If just a handful of their recent picks who are logging significant snaps this year—Lukas Van Ness, Quay Walker, Eric Stokes, Devonte Wyatt—improve greatly or break out right away, I think their overall talent can stand up adequately against the rest of the NFC North and the (generally weak) conference as a whole.
6. Tennessee Titans
2022 record: 7–10, second in AFC South
There’s little doubt that the Colts will be the most improved team in the AFC South. The question is whether they’ll be close enough on the heels of the Jaguars to sneak into the playoffs. I’m encouraged by the fact that the Titans are still behaving like a team in contention, even though recent moves, like the trading of A.J. Brown last year and the shift in general manager away from Jon Robinson would signal the desire to rebuild. If they are even considering signing someone like DeAndre Hopkins, it means there are players Mike Vrabel is confident in building around. That has to make us confident, too.
