Paris – The Six Nations kicks off this evening with a rare Thursday night fixture to avoid clashing with Friday's Winter Olympics opening ceremony, as France host Ireland in Paris. In other changes, this year's tournament will run for six weeks rather than seven.
This year's championship has been compressed to six weeks, removing one of the usual two rest periods – a move that squads without depth will feel keenly.
Tonight's match in Saint-Denis sets the early tone, with France and Ireland sharing four of the last five titles between them.
For Ireland, expectations are unusually low. They finished third last season and looked decidedly ordinary in autumn defeats to New Zealand and South Africa. The Springboks, in particular, exposed weaknesses up front that won't have gone unnoticed by other coaches.
Injuries compound the problem. Tadhg Furlong remains doubtful with a calf issue, while Ryan Baird, Hugo Keenan, Mack Hansen and Robbie Henshaw are all out. Bundee Aki begins a four-match ban for abusing a referee. Sam Prendergast gets the out-half jersey despite questions about his defensive work.
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France, in contrast, have made bold selection calls from a position of strength. Coach Fabien Galthie has dropped Greg Alldritt, Gael Fickou and top try-scorer Damian Penaud entirely, bringing in younger players who "need the chance to make mistakes".
The return of captain Antoine Dupont after eight months out with a knee injury is significant. Conversely, the loss of prop Uini Atonio to sudden retirement following a heart attack is a genuine blow.
England's momentum
Steve Borthwick's side arrive at the Six nations on the back of an 11-game winning streak. They haven't won the championship since 2020, or a Grand Slam in a decade, but they're talking like contenders again.
Borthwick is already eyeing a potential decider in Paris in round five. "On March 14, we want to be in a position where we can achieve what we're all aiming to achieve," he said.
England face Wales at home tomorrow, then Scotland away. Both should be winnable for them. Captain Maro Itoje starts on the bench after missing early preparations to attend his mother's funeral in Nigeria, but England's depth usually absorbs such disruptions.
They've added Henry Pollock, one of the form players in Europe. Their game plan remains kick-heavy but effective. George Ford brings experience at out-half.
The best of the rest
Scotland benefit from Glasgow Warriors topping the United Rugby Championship and going four from four in Europe. That puts a bit of substance behind their perennial optimism.
But Scotland haven't finished higher than third place since 2000. They face Italy away on Saturday, precisely the sort of fixture where their habit of squandering promising positions tends to resurface.
Italy continue their gradual improvement under Gonzalo Quesada. They beat Scotland at home last year and might reasonably fancy doing it again. A first Six Nations win in Dublin, when they visit in round two, probably remains beyond them – but perhaps not wildly so.
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Wales present the starkest picture, having gone nearly three years without a Six Nations win and with 21 defeats in their last 23 tests, including a 73-0 home loss to South Africa in November.
New coach Steve Tandy faces more than just results pressure. Potential player strikes loom as the Welsh Rugby Union considers reducing professional clubs from four to three. Louis Rees-Zammit returns from his NFL adventure, but Jac Morgan and Taulupe Faletau miss the opening rounds.
France and England head the betting. Both host the other in the final rounds, which could prove decisive.
Ireland's challenge is simply to remain competitive while managing injuries and finding answers at key positions. This might be a transitional Six Nations for them.
Thursday's match in Paris provides the first real indication of where this championship is heading. France are the favourites but whether Ireland can produce anything like their 2024 performance in Marseille – when they won 38-17 despite similar pessimism – remains to be seen.
