These are changing times – politically, environmentally, societally – but some things remain resolutely the same. Come rain or shine, for richer or poorer, the Six Nations retains its prominent place in the sporting calendar, not just the perfect vehicle to help navigate through winter into spring but an annual reminder that Britain and Europe still have plenty in common.
Regardless of everyone’s EU membership status, the start of a new championship season is an antidote to most woes: a feelgood milestone offering the chance to make a point on the field and raise a glass to shared friendships off it. The day rugby loses its fond tradition of cross-border camaraderie and the Six Nations is reduced to also-ran status it might as well pack up its old kitbag.
For now, as Eddie Jones reiterated in his recent autobiography, it remains “the greatest annual tournament” in rugby. “In my experience, nothing comes even remotely close to it,” said Jones, who has spent enough time in the southern hemisphere to know his subject well. Whether it is the pilgrimages made by the travelling fans, the evocative backdrops, the ancient rivalries or the overflowing passion during the anthems, it still seems to capture the imaginations of all ages.
There is, however, one significant difference this year. The investment plans of the private equity firm CVC are due to be formally confirmed in March, heralding a new era that may or may not prove game‑breaking. Rather than preaching mostly to the converted, the Six Nations will shortly be reaching out to a whole new audience at a delicate time in the sport’s history. Sell itself successfully as the Greatest Show on Turf and its future will be assured indefinitely. Kill the golden goose of northern hemisphere rugby and history will not be kind to those concerned.
Happily, we have not yet reached the stage where no one cares and the outcome is a foregone conclusion. In the 20 years since the Five Nations was expanded by the addition of Italy the statistics are fascinating. England have won the title six times but have claimed “only” two grand slams, in 2003 and 2016. How many would have predicted in 2000 that Wales would win as many slams as England and Ireland combined over the next two decades or that France would go a full 10 years from 2010 without a single title?
If Scotland and Italy have largely wallowed around in the bottom half during that period, it is still within their gift to shape the tournament in some way or another. Those anticipating a comfortable romp this spring for England, for example, are overlooking the fact Scotland are unbeaten against them since 2017. Italy, under the new management of Franco Smith, will have Scotland very much in their sights when they host them in Rome next month.
There is no hiding from the reality, though, that a trio of games in particular will determine this season’s top three. France v England on Sunday is the first one, with Ireland’s trips to Twickenham and Paris potentially the others. If France get it right first time under the unlikely duo of Fabien Galthié and Shaun Edwards, everyone will be catapulted into a crazy seven weeks of myriad possibilities. If, on the other hand, no one beats England in their opening three matches this month, the World Cup finalists will be short odds to complete the second grand slam of the Jones era.
It all boils down to one big intangible: will England, having expended so much physical and mental energy in Japan, be able to reboot themselves psychologically against a series of opponents under fresh management? Human nature would suggest that, in addition to France, Ireland under Andy Farrell and Wales under Wayne Pivac will be bright-eyed and eager to impress. That does not always translate into instant results but history suggests that, in a post-World Cup tournament, it is not necessarily the obvious teams who prosper.
That there has been a grand slam achieved in 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016 – by three different nations – bodes well for anyone who can start strongly. Will the Saracens saga affect England in any way? Not so much, one suspects, as the Finn Russell affair will affect Scotland and the absence of Jonathan Davies will hamper Wales.
This is not a tournament lacking power runners well equipped to exploit backline weakness. If Virimi Vakatawa stays fit the France midfield will be a proper handful, while it will be a surprise if Farrell’s Ireland are as flat and anonymous as they ultimately were in Japan.
By the final whistle in Paris on Sunday it should also be clear whether or not England’s World Cup final underachievement has had a galvanising effect. There is also the small matter of how swiftly Matt Proudfoot and Simon Amor bed in as assistant coaches. As one or two of their predecessors have discovered, Jones’s patience stretches only so far.
If we are lucky, too, this will be a tournament illuminated by bright young things – Caelan Doris, Louis Rees-Zammit, Romain Ntamack, Rory Hutchinson, Ben Earl.
Defence, either way, will be as vital as ever. Last year Wales managed a mere 10 tries – the same as bottom-placed Italy – en route to their grand slam despite a record number of tries – 84 – being scored overall. England registered 24 of them and finished runners‑up; this time, if they can clear the first hurdle, all roads should lead to a rousing title finale in their final game in Rome on 14 March.
