Gone are the days when the Six Nations was purely an annual treat. It is eight weeks since the leading European sides were last at each other’s throats and England’s two autumnal trophies are still warm in the cabinet as the players prepare to renew acquaintances this weekend.
The tournament’s familiar old rhythms have morphed into an increasingly frenzied DJ set. In theory these recent form lines should remove some of the uncertainty and diminish the chances of a leftfield winner. Within the past two months Wales were looking well below par in the Autumn Nations Cup and Scotland were losing 31-16 to Ireland in Dublin. How many of November’s lowly Cinderellas can realistically expect their fortunes to be radically transformed?
The counter-argument is that nothing is absolutely as it seems. Every squad is locked away in a biosecure bubble that will challenge everyone’s mental resilience. Even a confident-sounding England are without five forwards through injury, suspension or unavailability and their Saracens contingent have not played in two months. Nailed-on champions? Only those wearing red rose-tinted glasses would say so unhesitatingly.
It might also be that history plays less of a part this year than it has ever done. The absence of fans helps nobody but it is a definite leveller. Why should Scotland fear going to Twickenham, for example, or France to Dublin in round two when the time-honoured 16th man is absent? Italy look set to struggle regardless without the injured Jake Polledri but the five other teams will feel anything is possible.
In that regard it was interesting this week to hear the former Wales scrum-half Mike Phillips estimate the Cardiff roar to be worth around 10 points to the hosts. Ireland might fancy sticking that quote on their dressing room wall on Sunday as they go in search of the early win that makes such a difference. With Ken Owens and Dan Lydiate back, however, this is a sturdier-looking Welsh squad while Caelan Doris’s absence from the back row is a blow for the visitors as they seek to recapture former glories.
It adds up to a highly significant weekend for the head coaches Wayne Pivac and Andy Farrell, both of whom could do with an uplifting couple of months. There are also potential implications for the British & Irish Lions, whose ringmaster Warren Gatland is back in the UK to cast his eye over his prime tour candidates. If Johnny Sexton, Conor Murray, Jonathan Davies and Alun Wyn Jones cannot impose their wills as reliably as in the past, it will complicate tour selection no end.
Which is why Gatland will be among those hoping for a rip-snorting game at Twickenham on Saturday. Scotland’s poor away record – aside from Rome, they have won just three elsewhere since the Six Nations began in 2000 – is the reason they have had so few recent Lions and the mental barrier still confronting Gregor Townsend’s squad. Scottish self-belief, however, is on the rise: in addition to the 38-38 draw in 2019, they also let England off the hook at Murrayfield last year. When Tom Curry warned about the major threat awaiting the hosts at the breakdown on Saturday he was spot on.
The ball, consequently, sits in England’s court. They know exactly what is coming and three of their five games are at Twickenham where they have been beaten once in the Six Nations since 2012. Even without Joe Marler, Mako Vunipola, Joe Launchbury, Kyle Sinckler and Sam Underhill for the Scotland game they have a talented squad with some fresh twinkling talent. If Scotland regard Beno Obano and Will Stuart as potential scrummaging weak links they are likely to be disappointed; the same applies to Ben Earl, Mark Wilson and Jack Willis in the back row.
The caveat, however, is a familiar one: England do not always add up to the sum of their parts. No one disputes Eddie Jones’s coaching record but the sudden-death win over France in December was a strictly limited triumph in all senses. His side are at their best when they play at a quick tempo; to complement the gifted Henry Slade, Elliot Daly and Max Malins they also need dynamic ball carriers to pierce the gainline and panic defences. With the 2023 World Cup on the horizon, Earl, Paolo Odogwu, Ollie Lawrence and Harry Randall will all hopefully enjoy more than bit-part bench roles.
There is a good chance the title will come down to the next England v France showdown at Twickenham next month. Les Bleus will miss the injured Virimi Vakatawa but gone are the days when they lacked an obvious uniformity of purpose. Shaun Edwards, their defence coach, says: “I’m not judging anyone on what happened before but the players look forward to coming in to the training camp. For them to be really looking forward to France games is a big thing.”
This could just be the year, then, that France collect a first title since 2010 and – despite its empty stadiums – that rugby as a whole rediscovers some of its joie de vivre. Edwards, for one, believes the sport would be instantly improved if referees were to clamp down on double-latching before contact. “You’re only supposed to latch on after contact. If that was enforced people would probably pass the ball more in the 22, wouldn’t they?”
Further Covid disruption permitting, the next seven weeks would be the ideal time for rugby to banish its winter blues.
