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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Sport
Robert Kitson, Gerard Meagher, Andy Bull, Jonathan Liew and Michael Aylwin

Six Nations 2024 predictions: our writers on who will win and why

(Left to right) Italy's Ange Capuozzo, Scotland's Finn Russell, Jack Crowley of Ireland, England's Ollie Lawrence, Wales' Sam Costelow and France's Damien Penaud.
(Left to right) Italy's Ange Capuozzo, Scotland's Finn Russell, Jack Crowley of Ireland, England's Ollie Lawrence, Wales' Sam Costelow and France's Damien Penaud. Composite: Guardian design

Who is going to win and why?

France. They are desperate to make up for their World Cup disappointment, have potentially the strongest scrum in Europe and an electric backline. If the absent Antoine Dupont were still around, they would be grand slam certs. Even without him they will still be formidable. Robert Kitson

England. The fixtures fall nicely, with a trip to Italy allowing them to get a win under their belts before hosting a callow Wales side. Reinforcements should then return in the shape of Ollie Lawrence and George Martin and if they can end their poor run against Scotland the wind is in their sails. I don’t think they’ll win in France but I don’t think they’ll need to in order to claim the title. Gerard Meagher

France, who have home advantage against England and Ireland, the only caveat being whether or not they have managed to cast off their World Cup hangover. Andy Bull

England. No, come back. They have won the past two post-World Cup tournaments. There is a sense of evolution and renewal to them. Most importantly, their fixture run will allow them to build momentum towards a (possible) final-day showdown in Lyon. Jonathan Liew

Ireland. Obviously, a lot will hinge on the opening game. But even if Ireland lose that, they follow up with home games against Italy and Wales, so theyare likely to be in the mix come the final weekend, when they are also at home. Michael Aylwin

Peter O’Mahony speaks with the Ireland team ahead of training at the Orange Velodrome in Marseille on 1 February 2024
Will Ireland, led by Peter O’Mahony, become the first team of the Six Nations era to win back-to-back grand slams? Photograph: Dan Sheridan/INPHO/Shutterstock

Predicted finishing order

1 France 2 Ireland 3 Scotland 4 England 5 Wales 6 Italy RK

1 England 2 France 3 Scotland 4 Ireland 5 Wales 6 Italy GM

1 France 2 Ireland 3 England 4 Scotland 5 Wales 6 Italy AB

1 England 2 France 3 Ireland 4 Scotland 5 Wales 6 Italy JL

1 Ireland 2 France 3 Scotland 4 England 5 Italy 6 Wales MA

Watch out for …

Finn Russell (AKA Lionel Messi). Several rookie fly-halves – Jack Crowley, Fin Smith, Sam Costelow – have the chance to shine but Russell is at his creative peak. Scotland’s No 10 will conjure something brilliant at some stage. RK

How France and Ireland deal with their post-World Cup hangovers. Friday night offers the chance of a cathartic victory for either side but the losers may find momentum hard to come by to recover for the rest of the tournament. GM

Posolo Tuilagi. After some back and forth about his eligibility, Henry Tuilagi’s son has been called into the French squad after impressing the coaches during training. He is 1.93m (6ft 4in) and 150kg (23st 8lb), so hard to miss. AB

Plenty of buzz coming out of Italy – and Devon – over Ross Vintcent, the 21-year-old Exeter No 8 with superb hands and a lightning burst of pace. “A special talent,” says Rob Baxter, and despite missing out against England, if he can play his way into a starting spot he could do some damage. JL

Italy. Hope is such a cliche, but let us hope for an Italy transformation after yet another humiliating World Cup. Got a funny feeling about their opener against England. Benetton riding high in the URC. MA

The top try-scorer will be …

Damian Penaud. If it is not him it will be another Frenchman. RK

Thomas Ramos Five tries for Toulouse this season and will arguably get more chances at full-back than fly-half where he is playing for his club. He is deceptively quick and scored three tries in last year’s Six Nations. GM

Damian Penaud, scored 14 in 11 Tests last year and needs three more to usurp Serge Blanco as France’s all-time top scorer. AB

Damian Penaud. JL

Damian Penaud. Just picked him because he is such a fabulous player. Do not know if he will find himself on the end of sweeping moves more than anyone else, but hope he does. MA

Damian Penaud during France training
Damian Penaud is already one of the greatest finishers of all time and is three tries short of equalling the national record of 38 held by Serge Blanco. Photograph: Adam Davy/PA

What I’m most looking forward to

Being proved spectacularly wrong with all the above predictions. Because that will mean the Six Nations still retains all its glorious uncertainty. And, on a more personal note, raising a convivial glass in honour of much-loved journo colleagues who, for various reasons, will be missing this year’s tournament. RK

A trip to Lyon on the final week as France take their matches around the country while the Stade de France undergoes renovation before the Olympics. It will never catch on in other countries, but it should. GM

Seeing England. Given the way they have been playing it has been a few years since I have been able to say it, but they had a good World Cup. It is going to be fascinating to see how they kick on with a new captain, new defence coach and a handful of new players. AB

Seeing France on the road. With the Stade de France out of commission, this team now has the opportunity to strengthen the bond it forged with the French public during last year’s World Cup. JL

Well, I’ve done Italy and I’ve done Penaud. Let’s chuck in Ioan Lloyd to the mix. Wales are absolutely unknowable this year. Lloyd is pretty hard to second-guess too if he gets his chance. MA

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