Eddie Jones may believe that everyone has written off England's hopes of beating Ireland Rugby on Saturday, but the Dublin encounter should prove to be one of the closest matches of the entire championship if our predictions are anything to go by.
The Independent has teamed up with QBE Business Insurance to provide predictions for each round of matches every Friday during the Six Nations, starting with the opening weekend’s action that begins in Paris later tonight as France Rugby take on Wales Rugby, before Saturday’s double-header sees Scotland Rugby host Italy Rugby and defending champions Ireland take on England.
QBE Business Insurance has based its predictions on a complex mathematical formula created by a team of experts whose day job is to help businesses anticipate the likelihood and impact of risks so that they can prepare for and manage them properly.
The computer model has simulated each game 10,000 times with an average score taken to find the final result. Actuaries inputted a wide range of rugby variables including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by the teams involved, as well as the experience of each team's captain and who has the benefit of home territory.
And while Ireland head into the tournament as the bookmakers’ favourites, we give them a slender three-point advantage at the Aviva Stadium. Past matches between the two sides have often been a close affair, and the 56 per cent likelihood of an Ireland victory sees us predict that they will run out 20-17 winners - with England just paying the price for their disruptive build-up in losing co-captain Dylan Hartley and centre Ben Te’o to injury.
In the weekends opening fixture, the omens are good for Warren Gatland’s side as we make Wales overwhelming favourites to beat France, with the most likely score a 22-14 in the Welshmens’ favour.
Finally, Scotland should get off to the win that their fans will be expecting and a whopping 80 per cent probability should see them home to a 32-18 victory over Italy at Murrayfield, prolonging the Italians’ pain and misery in this tournament after three straight years without a win.
