This is the match that has crept up on us as the connoisseur’s highlight of the opening weekend. If we are on the verge of the most competitive Six Nations in recent years – and there is every reason to believe we are, even if we have said that of many of the recent editions – Scotland against Ireland at Murrayfield is just the sort of fixture by which to judge such a claim.
The surge in Scottish fortunes, spear-headed by Glasgow, has been well documented. Having beaten France, with some confidence, for the first time in 10 years last season, Scotland now need another scalp – and Ireland’s at home is non-negotiable if we are to take them seriously.
Ireland are just as important a bellwether for how this tournament will shape up. We are all assuming a collision course with England for the title on the last weekend. The organisers are praying for it. If Ireland are to make good on that, a win at Murrayfield is fairly non-negotiable for them as well.
We think they are back to where they were before their wobble of around a year ago. Champions in 2015, they went into the last round of the 2016 tournament in danger of finishing fifth, having taken only a draw from the first three rounds. We all know what then happened in the second half of last year – a series of firsts to suggest they have never been stronger.
Joe Schmidt is looking as sharp as a blade again but the Ireland coach plays down any notion of a renaissance. “It is less of a transformation than people realise. Leading into the World Cup I thought we were in pretty good shape, and one of the best performances I have seen from an Irish team in my time was against France in the last pool game. But it came at a cost.
“Then there was a generational change to a degree. Paul O’Connell and Peter O’Mahony were replaced by Ultan Dillane and Josh van der Flier. You go from massive experience and ability to raw ability and massive inexperience. But, as experience accumulates, they understand the demands. It has allowed us to get into a slightly better position again but the one caveat is I think so many teams are in a pretty good position.”
Ireland’s position has weakened somewhat with the loss of Johnny Sexton. An unhealthy amount of time this week has been spent discussing Sexton’s status – hopefully, he will be fit for Italy next weekend – and the policy of not selecting other Irish fly-halves who play overseas. None of which serves as a resounding endorsement of Paddy Jackson, the man who will step in for Sexton. Which is a shame, because he is a fine playmaker whose goal-kicking has improved enough to wrestle Ulster’s tee from Ruan Pienaar. He also steered the ship well in South Africa last summer, when Ireland registered the first of those firsts, an away win against the Springboks.
There is no doubt the break-up of the Conor Murray-Sexton axis, so fundamental to the next first, that one in Chicago, is a blow. The losses of O’Mahony and Donnacha Ryan may have been as well but they serve merely to illustrate the depth Ireland have built, particularly in the back row. CJ Stander and the versatile Iain Henderson were the men in possession of the No6 and No4 shirts, anyway.
As sole conquerors of the All Blacks in 22 Tests, Ireland enter this championship with a lustre almost as bright as England’s. Many commentators are going so far as to describe them as marginal favourites ahead of the latter, courtesy of home advantage for that final showdown, although the ones who matter, the bookies, have England as clear, odds-on favourites for the title, with Ireland a comparatively distant 5-2.
Schmidt considers it the most competitive championship of his tenure, with slim chance of a grand slam. “A grand slam is always less likely than not. I think there have been a lot more championships without than with.”
He’s actually wrong about that – there have been nine grand slams in 17 Six Nations – but he is right to consider this year’s campaign the most treacherous yet, which could have exciting implications for the final weekend. One of the reasons for the hike in tension is the growing confidence of Scotland.
It falls to Ireland to test this first. The reason they did not finish fifth last season is because they beat Scotland in an excellent match by 10 points on the final day in Dublin. Scotland will not be disheartened by that, as they conceded three of their four tries while down to 14 men, and made much more of what ball they won, which was practically none in the first half.
Since then Ireland have developed Tadhg Furlong into a Lions candidate of a tighthead, while Scotland have suffered the loss for the tournament of WP Nel. It is Ireland’s lineout, which has been strangely off key of late, that Scotland may target. In the delicate balance between set-piece proficiency and cutting edge, Ireland have geared towards the latter with the formidable ball-carrying threat of Stander and Sean O’Brien. The chances are both teams will fancy a fast game, Scotland undoubtedly so.
That the hosts may brandish such an approach with genuine hope of its success tells us much about the prospects for this championship. That Ireland will be on full alert for it does the same. It is the perfect opener.
