EARLY THOUGHTS
England have been installed as the bookmakers' favourites to win the Six Nations, but there is no outstanding team in the tournament. It would appear the manner of their victory against Australia last November, coupled with their facing the champions France at Twickenham, has made them the least unlikely to claim a crown they last wore eight years ago.
It was in 2003 that England last won in the Six Nations in Cardiff and Dublin and while they have not been invincible at Twickenham in the years since their last grand slam, Wales, Ireland and France all scurrying away from HQ with the spoils at least once, it is on the road where they have been most vulnerable.
Take away Rome, a city where England have won rather than performed, and which may last year have persuaded Martin Johnson he needed to rethink the captaincy after Steve Borthwick described an uninspired display as fantastic, and the men in white's away record is wooden spoon rather than champion, four victories in their past 16, three of which were against Italy.
So if England are to justify their billing they will have to win at least one of their two away matches this year. Victory in Cardiff on Friday night would set them up with three home matches following in successive rounds before the concluding weekend in Dublin, but a feature of England since they won the World Cup has been their inconsistency, something that blighted their autumn international campaign.
They made a winning start to last year's Six Nations and went into the home game against Ireland with a 2-0 record. They were then still trying to find themselves under Johnson and, as if stung by the criticism of their leaden-footed display in Rome, adopted a more open approach, one they persisted with when it started raining and mistakes proved costly.
Johnson this week described the Millennium Stadium crowd as the most hostile England ever encounter, something the Scots might take exception to, but he knows it will take more than atmosphere for Wales to end their long run of matches without a victory.
The Rugby Football Union chief executive, John Steele, has said he expects a top-two finish from England in the Six Nations. Johnson is out of contract at the end of the World Cup in the autumn, but claiming the runners-up position in 2008, which followed the achievement of reaching the World Cup final, did nothing for his predecessor, Brian Ashton.
Johnson's opposite number, Warren Gatland, has greater job security, armed with a contract that will take him to the 2015 World Cup, but his future, by his own admission, will hinge on how Wales perform in New Zealand where they are locked in a pool with South Africa, Samoa and Fiji.
Wales are at least more consistent than England: they keep finding ways of losing matches in which they enjoy the greater share of territory and possession. Mistakes have cost them, whether it is Alun Wyn Jones tripping Dylan Hartley, James Hook throwing out interception passes, Lee Byrne missing touch from penalties or forwards getting turned over in opposition territory.
Wales travel to Scotland and Italy after facing England. Defeat tomorrow would lead to their mood music being more dirge than anthem but victory would empower a team that should long ago have grown out of the need for reassurance.
Scotland, like England, tasted success against one of the Tri-Nations last November, squeezing out South Africa after being torn apart by New Zealand. They have revived under Andy Robinson to the point where, the All Blacks apart, they are hard to beat but seven tries in 13 Tests under the Englishman show the next step they need to make.
They have, though, started to make an impression on the road, winning the summer series in Argentina having given Ireland an anticlimactic end to their stay at Croke Park. They were unfortunate to lose to Wales in Cardiff, a questionable yellow card helping the hosts to make an unlikely comeback.
Scotland begin their campaign in Paris, perhaps not the ideal opener given their failure to make a winning start for 10 of the past 11 campaigns, but the champions are in navel-gazing mode, their grand slam success turning into summer slaughter in Argentina and South Africa before Australia stormed Paris in the autumn.
The French squad have only been in camp for a week and the national coach, Marc Lièvremont, has continued his trend of making at least one surprise omission each match by dropping Yannick Jauzion, a player England would cherish. France often start a Six Nations campaign in a low gear and Scotland will have an advantage in preparation time.
Ireland, grand slam winners two years ago, have largely been written off. They will miss Stephen Ferris, Jamie Heaslip and Tommy Bowe in Rome and, like Wales, defeat could leave them on a precipitous descent. Yet they performed creditably against New Zealand in November and lost narrowly after a late revival to South Africa.
Eight of the side play for Leinster, who have made an impact in the Heineken Cup, and with France and England both visiting Dublin, together with a trip to Cardiff, a ground where they have lost only once in the past 28 years, the Irish have the capacity to confound opinion and look a good each-way bet for the title.
There has been a grand slam in each of the past three seasons, but the last World Cup year, 2007, saw France beat Ireland in Dublin but lose at Twickenham to England who fell at Lansdowne Road. With Scotland better equipped now than they were then and Wales typically win-or-bust, it should be an open championship with all the sides building to the World Cup.
The Six Nations in recent years has tended to be lower on quality than excitement and has at times been a celebration of the ordinary. Tri-Nations teams are adept at finishing what they start, skilful and poised under pressure as well as physical. It is time Europe joined them.
OPEN-TOP CHARADE
Cardiff in the winter is often wet. You could say the same for the spring and the summer, but at least the rain is warmer then.
So why is it that every time there is a Six Nations match in Cardiff there is a drawn-out debate about whether the roof should be open?
The Wales coach, Warren Gatland, wants it to be closed tomorrow, when heavy rain is forecast, but his opposite number, Martin Johnson, has so far refused to agree. Under tournament rules, unless the two teams involved ask for the roof to be shut, it remains open.
Gatland used the roof as a weapon last autumn when he kept it open for Australia and he has not been able to complain this week about Johnson's stance, as he did a year ago when Andy Robinson said Scotland would take whatever the elements threw at them.
The World Cup and Heineken Cup, the final of which will be held in Cardiff in May, have a different take. The participation agreement stipulates that every time a match is staged at the Millennium Stadium the roof will be shut, short-circuiting disputes.
Yet Wales do have a get-out in the Six Nations. The stadium's management board have the right, if conditions deteriorate to the point where safety becomes an issue or special circumstances apply, to order that the roof to be shut.
Does heavy rain constitute a special circumstance? Does safety refer to spectators or players? Both? Perhaps Johnson, getting revenge for Gatland's unflattering observations about the England hooker, Dylan Hartley, will agree to the roof being closed at the 11th hour.
Never mind the pre-match entertainment, it's time the Six Nations, like the World Cup and Heineken Cup organisers, had a fixed policy on the roof. It should be an open or shut case.
