Though the State government is hopeful of completing the work on the proposed Silverline semi-high-speed rail network in three years once the final approval is granted for the project by the Centre, the critics of the project are not ready to buy the argument of the State government on mainly two counts. First, the best work output time scenario in the rail project was demonstrated by the Delhi Metro so far in the country.
“It took 25 years to complete the 375 km of rail line in Delhi, i.e. 14.3 km per year. Even if the State government replicates the best output time scenario demonstrated by the Delhi Metro, it will take at least 37 years to complete the 530 km long rail network from Thiruvananthapuram to Kasaragod. When it comes to Kochi metro, 25 km long rail network was completed in six years, i.e. 4.17 km/year. If we could construct the Silverline at the pace of the Kochi metro, it would take 127 years to complete the 630 km long rail line,” said K. P. Kannan, Honorary Fellow, Centre for Development Studies.
Another point is that when the cost and time overrun of the various infrastructure projects in Kerala for the past couple of decades are considered, the cost and time projected in the detailed project report of the Silverline is not realistic. For instance, a study by Prof. Kannan has revealed that the average cost overrun of 20 infra projects of the Electricity Board subjected for the study was 3.8 times of the estimated cost, while the time overrun was 2.62 times of the project time estimated in the DPR.
Similarly, when 15 infra projects of Irrigation Department were subjected for cost and time overrun comparison, the cost overrun was 25 times of the anticipated cost and time overrun was 5 times of the projected deadline in irrigation projects. This is the actual scenario of the infrastructure projects in Kerala,” said Prof. Kannan.
“When we apply the cost overrun of electricity board projects in Silverline project, the original cost would come around ₹2.47 lakh crore for the rail project and if apply the cost overrun of irrigation project in Silverline, the actual cost would come around ₹16.05 lakh crore on time of completion. So there is no point in believing the cost and time projected in the DPR of the Silverline submitted as it has underestimated cost and time and overestimated the benefits, said its critics. The semi high speed rail project connecting Thiruvananthapuram to Kasaragod with trains running at a maximum speed of 200 km/hour is estimated to cost ₹63,940 crore and the work on the project can be completed in three years as per the DPR.
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