Silver futures broke decisively above $40 per ounce Monday in a historic move not seen since September 2011, confirming the white metal's spot as the top-performing asset in 2025 and igniting fresh bullish bets on further gains.
- SLV ETF is trading at 14-year highs. Check the chart here.
Silver Tops All Assets With 40% Gain in 2025
The grey metal rallied 2.5% an ounce on Monday, hitting their highest level since September 2011 and securing their place as the top-performing asset of the year.
With a year-to-date return of 40.7%, silver has left behind other key asset classes: gold has gained 30.8%, Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) added 11.8%, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) is up 10.3%, and even Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trails at 11%.
Traders and analysts attributed silver's rise to a combination of thin liquidity during Monday's U.S. bank holiday, anticipated rate cuts, supply tightness and growing political instability in Europe.
Rate Cut Odds Near 90% as Fed Meeting Looms
Markets are nearly certain the Federal Reserve will ease policy this month. The CME FedWatch tool shows an 89.7% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Lower interest rates tend to boost demand for precious metals by reducing their opportunity cost.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that gold and silver extended Friday's gains due to "sticky US inflation, weakening consumer sentiment, incoming rate cuts lowering funding costs, and concerns over Fed independence."
Gold is trading near its April high of $3,500 per ounce.
GPS Attack on von der Leyen Plane Adds To Market Jitters
Geopolitical risks have also escalated in Europe. According to the New York Times, a suspected Russian electronic interference attack disabled GPS services at a Bulgarian airport just as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen‘s plane was landing in Plovdiv on Sunday.
The jet lost access to electronic navigation systems during its approach, forcing pilots to land using paper maps.
The incident, seen as a targeted disruption, has raised fresh concerns over European security and further elevated safe-haven demand for metals.
ETF Demand and Futures Positioning Signal More Upside
The technical and positioning backdrop supports silver's bullish trajectory.
Futures market data show managed money and other reportables holding 220 million ounces of net long silver positions—slightly above the one-year average of 208 million ounces. Gold's net longs stand at 21 million ounces, below its 12-month average of 24.5 million ounces.
Meanwhile, silver exchange-traded fund holdings hit a three-year high at 806 million ounces, while gold ETF holdings rose to 93.2 million ounces, a 26-month high.
Will Silver Hit $50 in 2025?
Colin Fenton, analyst at 22V Research, projects silver will hit $43 by the end of the year and gives a 27% probability of a new all-time nominal high above $49 in 2025.
"Those odds double by the second half of 2026," Fenton said. "We want to own silver with high conviction."
David Morrison, senior analyst at fintech platform Trade Nation, said the $50 mark is now firmly in focus. "Silver bulls now have the all-time high from April 2011, just shy of $50 per ounce, in their sights," he said.
"The big question now is whether silver can head directly to this level, or if it needs to consolidate first."
Read now:
