Spikes in the incidence of Covid-19 infections were linked in many cases to social gatherings following county GAA finals in the autumn of 2020, according to the findings of a new study.
Researchers from the University of Galway examined the 14-day incidence rate of Covid-19 in the local electoral area (LEA) which contained teams that won their county final in either Gaelic football or hurling in the first year of the pandemic and compared it to the results from other LEAs in the same county.
They identified five “statistically significant” increases in Covid-19 infection rates in certain LEAs following county finals including in Ballymun-Finglas after Ballymun Kickhams won the Dublin Gaelic football championship.
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The study said the victory by the northside club was associated with an increase in the infection rate by 165 cases per 100,000 population following the match compared to other LEAs in Dublin. Significant increases in the Covid-19 infection rate were also linked to other county finals in Mayo, Offaly, Monaghan and Meath.
The research showed there were almost 198 more cases per 100,000 in the LEA of Rathoath, Co Meath following Rathoath GAA club’s victory in the Meath football championship in 2020. An extra 127 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 population in the LEA of Ballina was associated with Knockmore’s win in the county football final in Mayo.
Rhode's win in Offaly’s football championship in 2020 was linked to 97 additional cases per 100,000 in the Edenderry LEA, while Scotstown’s win in the Monaghan football championship in the same year resulted in an estimated increase of 81 cases per 100,000 in the area of Monaghan.
The researchers examined the incidence rate for a six-week period following 30 GAA matches. They consisted of 19 county finals in Gaelic football and 10 in hurling.
The two victorious semi-final clubs in the Cork county football championship were used for the study as the competition was suspended before the final could be played.
The study, which is published in the latest edition of The Economic and Social Review, noted that other sources of spikes in individual counties included outbreaks in food processing plants and nursing homes.
The authors of the report said it was designed to draw lessons from the experience of Covid-19 in Ireland in relation to mobility and the role of commuting in influencing the spread of the virus.
The research showed Monaghan was the county with the highest number of cases per head of population in the first 15 months of the pandemic up to the end of May 2021 with almost 8.3% of inhabitants infected.
It noted that four of the top five counties – Monaghan, Louth, Cavan and Donegal – all share a border with Northern Ireland.
The county with the least number of cases was Leitrim with just 2.65% cases per capita. The average across the Republic as a whole was just over 5.3%, while Dublin had the 3rd highest rate at 6.7%.
However, the highest rate of deaths of individuals with Covid-19 was recorded in Mayo with 136 deaths per 100,000 population. At the same time, several border counties that had relatively high infection rates – Cavan, Monaghan and Louth – had the second, third and sixth highest death rates respectively.
Sligo had the lowest death rate at 34 deaths per 100,000 population, while the national average was 99 per 100,000.
The study said its findings also suggested there was increasing non-compliance with Covid-19 restrictions on travel over the course of lockdown periods.
During the first lockdown, the study estimated that 41% of all workers were considered essential with the percentage increasing to 58% for the second lockdown when teachers and construction workers among others were added as essential staff.
The study found that workplace attendance rates began to fall prior to the imposition of the first lockdown to levels commensurate with the overall proportion of essential workers in the economy. However, workplace attendance rates began to rise again after three weeks of the first lockdown above the essential worker rate of 41% with levels reaching 52% by the last week of the first lockdown.
Over the summer months of 2020, workplace attendance continued to rise as restrictions were eased to reach 83% of pre-crisis levels in early September as schools reopened.
“The increasing levels of workplace attendance during the lockdown phases of the pandemic stress the importance of facilitating the ability to work from home as much as possible and providing adequate government assistance to those for whom working from home is not an option,” the study observed.
It also pointed out that the increased level of non-essential worker mobility as lockdowns progressed highlighted the difficulty of enforcing lockdown-type restrictions in the longer term.
The report said its findings indicated commuting played a part in the spread of the virus, while there were also noted increases in infection rates associated with visits to retail and recreation sites, transit stations and workplaces and other people’s homes.
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