Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. We’ll be taking the next couple of days off and will be back in your inbox on Monday. Happy Thanksgiving!
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In today’s SI:AM:
🏆 Latest CFP rankings
⭐ The NFL’s most outstanding player
🤔 Kiffin’s future looms over Ole Miss
Who’s in? Who’s out?
With one week left in the regular season, this year’s College Football Playoff field is very nearly set.
The selection committee released its latest set of rankings on Tuesday night. While mostly unchanged from last week, this snapshot gives us a better idea of what’s at stake in Rivalry Week. As a refresher, the 12-team playoff field will feature the five highest-ranked conference champions and seven at-large bids. Unlike last season, conference champs will not be given preference in seeding.
Here’s the top 16 from Tuesday’s rankings:
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Texas A&M
- Georgia
- Texas Tech
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
- BYU
- Miami
- Utah
- Vanderbilt
- Michigan
- Texas
The top Group of 5 team in the rankings is Tulane at No. 24. The Green Wave would be the No. 12 seed in the final playoff field if they can win the American Conference championship (likely against North Texas). The ACC champ figures to be the No. 11 seed, with the top 10 in the committee’s rankings filling out the rest of the field.
The conference championship game results in two weeks could upend the rankings, but Rivalry Week is still important for playoff purposes. Let’s break it down.
Miami’s narrow path
The committee likes Miami more than any other ACC team, but the Hurricanes could easily lose out on a chance to be in the final 12-team field.
First things first, Miami needs to win on the road on Saturday against No. 22 Pittsburgh (noon ET on ABC). Then it needs some help—either from other ACC teams or the committee. Miami is 5–2 in ACC play this season. Five other teams have two or fewer ACC losses and are still in contention for a spot in the conference title game. One of them is Pitt, which would be eliminated with a loss to Miami. Duke and Georgia Tech are also still alive. The teams with the clearest path to the conference title game are Virginia and SMU, which can clinch a spot with wins this weekend. If both the Cavaliers and Mustangs win, Miami is out of ACC contention. Virginia faces a 3–8 Virginia Tech squad in Charlottesville, and SMU is on the road against Cal (6–5).
If Miami doesn’t qualify for—and win—the ACC championship game, the Hurricanes would need to move up into the top 10 in the committee’s rankings to earn a spot in the playoff field. Doing so would likely require either a blowout win over Pitt or some shocking upset losses by teams in the top 10—or both.
The Big 12’s representative
As it stands now, the Big 12 would only get one team in the final playoff field: Texas Tech. BYU, Arizona State and, to a lesser extent, Utah are still clinging to hope, though.
Texas Tech and BYU can clinch spots in the Big 12 title game with wins on Saturday. The Red Raiders play at West Virginia, and the Cougars host UCF. Both teams can also clinch if Arizona State loses to Arizona on Friday. (Utah can only qualify with a win over Kansas, and wins by Arizona State, BYU and West Virginia.)
BYU would have to win the Big 12 championship game to get into the final playoff field, while Texas Tech might still be alive with a loss.
Can Michigan sneak in?
The stakes of this year’s Ohio State-Michigan game aren’t as high as when it was essentially a playoff game in 2023, but the Wolverines’ path to the CFP requires a win over the Buckeyes at the Big House on Saturday.
Michigan was 15th in the latest committee rankings, on the periphery of the playoff hunt but needing some serious help to get in. A win over No. 1 Ohio State on Saturday might be enough to vault Michigan over some of the other two-loss contenders like Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Alabama. There’s also the possibility that Michigan can earn an auto bid by winning the Big Ten, but that scenario requires some help.
There are seven different possible Big Ten title game matchups, three of which include Michigan. Two of those scenarios require undefeated second-ranked Indiana to lose as a four-touchdown favorite against a 2–9 Purdue team on Friday night, so let’s just ignore that. Michigan’s best hope of reaching the conference championship game is to beat Ohio State, have Indiana beat Purdue and have Washington upset Oregon. In that case, Michigan would play Indiana for the conference title.
Fringe SEC contenders
If the playoff started tomorrow, five SEC teams would be in: Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Alabama. Could Texas and/or Vanderbilt find a way to join/replace them?
The Longhorns and Commodores are out of the running for a spot in the SEC championship game, so their only hopes of making it come down to the final week of the regular season. The good news for both teams is that their finales offer an opportunity to pick up another signature win.
Texas will face No. 3 Texas A&M at home on Friday night, while Vanderbilt travels to Knoxville for a date with No. 19 Tennessee. A convincing win by either underdog could force the committee to rethink its rankings.
The best of Sports Illustrated
- Is Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba the NFL’s most outstanding player? Albert Breer digs in.
- Matt Verderame rolls out his All-Pro teams through Week 12—and the Chiefs dominate the board.
- Andrew Brandt unpacks why the NFL’s reaction to the NFLPA report cards is thin-skinned, but not entirely without legal footing.
- Bryan Fischer reports that Lane Kiffin’s possible exit could cost Ole Miss more than a coach. It might also cost them a home CFP game.
- Kevin Sweeney breaks down how the Players Era’s disruptive format turned a ranked battle into a low-stakes contest in men’s college basketball.
- Mark Bechtel takes you inside the booming world of food-fueled races, where the courses are wild and the menus even wilder.
The top five…
… things I saw last night:
5. A halfcourt buzzer beater by Chaminade’s Nathan Medina against Texas at the Maui Invitational.
4. Jalen Suggs’s lob to Wendell Carter Jr. where he tried to recreate that classic LeBron James-Dwyane Wade photo.
3. The incredible burst by Western Michigan’s Tailique Williams on a 41-yard touchdown run.
2. A basket by Maryland’s Andre Mills while he was sitting on the floor.
1. The Michigan bench’s reaction to a thunderous dunk by Oscar Goodman.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as SI:AM | What’s at Stake in Rivalry Week After Latest CFP Rankings.
