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Sports Illustrated

Sport

Dan Gartland

SI:AM | Red Sox Cap Great Offseason With Alex Bregman Signing

Alex Bregman SI Sox AL (Organization) Am Red Sox Boston (Organization) Kristian Campbell the Red Sox Rafael Devers

Bregman (left) is likely to see playing time at second base with the Red Sox. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. This will be the last SI:AM for a little while, since I’ll be out of the country until Feb. 24. It’s such a shame I won’t be able to write a daily sports column during the NBA All-Star break.

In today’s SI:AM:

🧦 Bregman to Boston
🗽 Stafford to New York?
☘️ New SI cover star

Another big Boston addition

As pitchers and catchers begin to report to spring training this week, one of this year’s top free agents targets remained unsigned—until Wednesday night.

Former Houston Astros infielder Alex Bregman has reportedly agreed to a three-year, $120 million contract with the Boston Red Sox. The deal includes an opt-out clause after each of the first two years, giving Bregman the option to test the market again and attempt to earn the long-term contract he had been searching for.

Bregman had been one of the best players available at the start of the winter. Sports Illustrated’s Will Laws and Nick Selbe ranked him the No. 9 player on the market, while other outlets were even more bullish on the former All-Star. The Athletic ranked him seventh and Fangraphs had him at No. 3. Multiple outlets had projected him to earn a six- or seven-year contract worth around $27 million per year. But the market for Bregman was cool, and it took him until the eve of spring training to find a home. In the end, he settled for more money per year (an average annual value of $40 million) and the flexibility to try his hand at free agency again if he bounces back in Boston.

The concerns about Bregman make sense. His best season came in 2019, when he hit a career-high 41 home runs and drew an MLB-best 119 walks en route to a second place finish in AL MVP voting. But that was the infamous “juiced ball” season, when home run rates across MLB skyrocketed from 1.15 per team per game the year before to 1.39. Bregman has remained a productive hitter even as his home run rate has come back down to earth, but his declining walk rate also offers some cause for concern. Between 2020 and ’23, Bregman walked in 12.6% of his plate appearances. Last year, his walks were nearly half as frequent—only 6.9%.

That explains why teams weren’t rushing to sign Bregman to a long-term deal, but he’s still a good signing in the short term. Even if you consider his MVP-caliber 2019 season an aberration, he’s been a consistently reliable hitter and an excellent defender. Bregman’s OPS+ has been 113 or higher in each of his nine seasons in the majors. Since he debuted in 2016, only three other players (Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman and Justin Turner) have had an OPS+ of at least 110 in every season (minimum 150 plate appearances).

Where Bregman fits defensively is the biggest question. He’s played almost exclusively third base as a big leaguer, but with Rafael Devers entrenched there for the Red Sox, Bregman figures to move to second. It’s a position he has very limited experience with, having played just 32 innings there over nine games. Bregman does, however, have plenty of experience playing in the middle of the infield. He was exclusively a shortstop in college at LSU and continued to play primarily at short during his brief time in the minors before shifting to third when he was called up, due to the presence of Carlos Correa in Houston. Bregman’s ability to play second or third gives the Red Sox some flexibility when filling out the lineup, allowing them to rest Devers or move him to DH without sacrificing much offensively. Another option would be to keep Bregman at third, make Devers a full-time DH and cut your losses on DH Masataka Yoshida, who has proved to be a nonfactor on offense and a black hole in the outfield since coming over from Japan in 2023. (Yoshida still has three years and $54 million left on his contract.)

The value of Bregman’s contract is what will have some people scratching their heads. The list of players making $40 million annually is a short one that features some of the best players in baseball: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom and now Bregman. It’s a lot of money to pay a second baseman. But at the same time, Bregman is a significant upgrade over Boston’s previous second base plans. If the Red Sox hadn’t signed him, they were probably going to go with some combination of Vaughn Grissom, David Hamilton and Kristian Campbell at second. Campbell is a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball, but Grissom and Hamilton are players with unimpressive offensive track records in the majors. Bregman will be much more productive than those guys, and there’s still a path for the defensively versatile Campbell to see him at other positions if he’s able to make the roster.

The price tag on Bregman’s contract is high, but it’s refreshing to see the Red Sox spending money again. It’s been a busy offseason for the Sox, who also signed starter Walker Buehler (one year, $21 million), reliever Aroldis Chapman (one year, $10.75 million) and traded for All-Star starter Garrett Crochet. Those moves, plus the addition of Bregman and the looming arrival of prospects like Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony (all position players) should be enough to bring the Red Sox back to relevance after three straight years of missing the playoffs. Boston ranked 12th in payroll last season and 13th the year before after ranking in the top five every year between 2004 and ’21. This year, the Sox are projected to have MLB’s ninth highest payroll. They’re still some $75 million shy of the New York Yankees, but the AL East should look a little more like we’re used to seeing it this season.