Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said that if the British parliament votes against the withdrawal agreement next week, “it will guide everybody to a no deal, for sure”.
Should we believe him? The short answer is no. But it is complicated, and it is still possible that the UK could leave the EU next Friday without a deal.
So why shouldn’t we believe the man known in the banlieues of Paris as the Chuka Umunna of France?
First, because Donald Tusk, the European Council president, said that he stood ready to invite EU leaders to an emergency summit next week if necessary. At a stroke, his ultimatum – that the UK could be permitted a short delay to Brexit only if the Commons voted for the deal – was undermined.
If the deal is defeated again, the leaders of the EU27 are likely to decide, after all, that the UK can have an extension anyway.
Second, because Macron and his fellow leaders are unlikely to force Britain out of the EU without a deal. They do not want to be blamed for the disruption that would follow. Above all, they do not want to be accused of throwing Ireland under the bus.
They have all pledged to uphold European unity, and are proud of their solidarity throughout the Brexit negotiations. If they forced a no-deal Brexit, that would mean checks at the Irish border, which is the one thing they have sworn must be avoided.
The irreconcilable problem of the Brexit deal has been that Conservative MPs don’t like the backstop – the deal to keep the Irish border open. It would be a great irony if the attempt to avoid a hard border ended up requiring a hard border. If it does, the EU does not want to be held responsible.
A third reason why it won’t happen is because of the European ideal. No matter how annoying the other EU leaders find the British – and many of them are secretly transfixed by the drama of what Theresa May yesterday called “arcane procedural rows” in our House of Commons – they feel an obligation to the European project.
Mr Macron may feel, as Charles de Gaulle did, that the British – or more specifically the English – are not suited to membership of this continental club. But the creed of “ever closer union” exerts its strong centripetal pull. If the EU leaders think there is a chance that the UK might change its mind about Brexit, they will feel under pressure to make it easier for us to do so.
So we should not take Mr Macron’s words on arriving at Brussels today as his final position. However parliament votes next week, the EU is likely to allow the UK to delay Brexit.
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