Should the Mountain West Move to a 20-Game Schedule?
The MW is “100 percent” moving to a 20-game slate, says Leon Rice
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Is expanding the conference schedule the right move for the Mountain West?
Over the past few years, there has been movement from some of the nation’s bigger conferences toward a 20-game league schedule. Last season, the Big Ten became the first Division I conference to put it into practice, and the ACC will follow suit this season. The Pac-12 voted in May to adopt this format and the other “high major” leagues may not be far behind.
So far, though, no mid-major conferences have been officially linked to an expanded conference season. But that might change soon.
During an media day interview, Boise State head coach Leon Rice seemed quite sure that the league would move in that direction. Rice told Jeff Goodman of Stadium that he believed “100 percent” that the conference would soon sport a 20-game slate.
This isn’t exactly a new sentiment. During the 2017 media day, former Utah State skipper Tim Duryea spoke with the same confidence on the issue, saying at that time, “everybody knows it’s going to be a reality.”
But others — most notably Brian Dutcher of SDSU — were more hesitant. Dutcher opined that, as the Mountain West has routinely received only one or two bids since 2013, it is not necessarily beneficial to play more games against the conference.
Still, with Rice’s insistence that the change is a foregone conclusion, the issue has resurfaced as a major talking point. The question remains, though, whether it will work out as intended.
Under the current 18-game format, Mountain West teams are forced to play an uneven schedule. Moving to a 20-game schedule would even the playing field by ensuring that a given school meets each of the other Mountain West squads twice yearly. Over time, the imbalances of the current structure may self-correct; however, a few teams each year will skate by with a relatively easy slate of league games.
For example, in 2019-20, Nevada will enjoy one fewer matchup against preseason favorites Utah State, as well as just one game against Fresno State, which was tabbed as the sixth-best team heading into the year. Meanwhile, UNLV will play just one game apiece against Air Force and Wyoming — teams picked eighth and tenth in the preseason poll, respectively. That means two dates with all of the league’s toughest teams for the Rebels. The scales are certainly in Nevada’s favor here.
This format switch would also undoubtedly make waves in non-conference scheduling. While the Big Ten has seen its members’ SOS metrics rise, and the Pac-12 has enacted non-conference guidelines to boost their league’s profile, the Mountain West may have difficulty replicating these outcomes.
Many of the schools in the Mountain West may be “too good” for high-major programs to put on their non-conference schedules. Power 5 programs, especially those outside of the Top 25, don’t want to be embarrassed by a mid-major in front of a national audience.
Conversely, the MW may not have the panache (or the money) that lower-tiered schools are looking for when scheduling their own “buy games”. That may be one reason for the league to look inward to solve its scheduling problems.
Five teams in the Mountain West finished in the Top 150 of both the NCAA’s NET rankings and Ken Pomeroy’s advanced analytics ratings last season. The expanded league schedule could theoretically lead to more chances to grab quality wins against those clubs. Following this line of logic, more Mountain West teams could walk into March with tournament-caliber resumes.
But there is no guarantee that this would be the case.
For those keeping track, having five Top 150 squads in the MW last season means that the other six teams fell below that threshold. Wyoming and San Jose State were sub-300 teams, landing among the fifty worst teams in the country. In many cases, two extra league games in the Mountain West will actually lower a team’s overall strength of schedule — depending on how they structure their non-conference docket, of course.
Teams in the Mountain West have done a decent job this season of scheduling marquee non-conference games against solid programs in the western states. Matchups with Pac-12 schools and dangerous mid-majors from the WCC, Big West, and Big Sky can be found across the league. And starting next season, the A10-MW Challenge will begin, ensuring another solid game on the docket for most Mountain West schools.
But with the possibility of 20 league games on the horizon and the league locking in its A10-MW event, teams will soon face tough choices when drafting their non-conference schedules.
Will MW schools sacrifice the easy wins afforded them by scheduling a few cupcakes? Or will they opt into more “buy games” against top-flight Power 5 schools for a guaranteed paycheck and the glimmering hope of an upset?
Going too far in either direction could either tank a team’s SOS or it could add blemishes to their win-loss record. Straddling the line likely won’t yield significant gains toward either.
Of course, there are other considerations to factor in when looking at the league’s decision to move to a bigger conference slate. Television deals are where conferences can really make their living. Adding extra league games into the schedule means more TV revenue for the conference. From a financial perspective, the move could be a boon for the MW — even if it comes at the expense of its members’ chances to make the NCAA Tournament.
For his part, MWC commissioner Craig Thompson said in an interview with Tyler Bischoff on ESPN Radio that the move to a 20-game schedule would “not necessarily” result in more NCAA Tournament bids for the league. He added, “I think UNLV would be much better served playing two more conference games than three or four of the people that are on their current schedule.” Thompson went on to suggest that MW teams should drop the worst opponents from their non-conference schedules to account for the extra league games.
So, while it is a nice mental exercise to weigh the pros and cons of moving to a 20-game conference schedule if Leon Rice is correct, then the horse is already out of the stable. Now, it’s up to the league’s coaches and administrators to adjust to this new reality.
Follow @MWCWire on Twitter for updates on this situation and other stories from the Mountain West’s Media Day.
Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.
