The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party is clinging to hopes of an Orange-style boilover as the Upper Hunter by-election campaign enters its final days.
Shooters candidate Sue Gilroy, a former Singleton Business Chamber president, said on Thursday that the party had not ruled out gaining enough preferences to upset Labor and the Nationals on Saturday.
The Shooters' Philip Donato won the 2016 Orange by-election with 23.8 per cent of the primary vote in a seat the Nationals had never lost. The Nationals' Scott Barrett won 31.6 per cent of the primary vote and Labor's Bernard Fitzsimon 18.3 per cent. The preference flow gave Mr Donato victory by just 50 votes.
The Shooters achieved a huge 21.8 per cent swing against the Nationals in Orange then repeated the dose in the 2019 general election, winning Barwon and Murray off the Nationals with swings of 19 and 26 per cent.
In Upper Hunter, the Shooters hope to pick up enough votes from their preference deal with One Nation to move ahead of Labor and set up an underdog victory.
Labor's how-to-vote card has the Shooters at number four and does not assign a preference to the Nationals' Dave Layzell.
At least it's gone some way to addressing some of the issues we've got.
Shooters candidate Sue Gilroy on the by-election
The Shooters were polling at 16 per cent, One Nation at 11 per cent, Labor at 23 per cent and the Nationals at 25 per cent in a recent YouGov survey of 400 voters.
One Nation polled at 16 per cent in a Shooters-commissioned survey last month, offering candidate Dale McNamara an outside hope.
Labor can expect to pick up preference votes from the Greens, but it is far from clear how preferences will flow from the five independents.
The three electorates the Nationals have surrendered to the Shooters are more rural than Upper Hunter, where mining plays a more prominent role in the economy.
Ms Gilroy said that, regardless of the result, the by-election had drawn attention to the electorate and made the government "accountable".
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The government has announced a rash of funding promises during the campaign, including money for an upgraded Singleton bypass, Muswellbrook Hospital, Singleton police station, Dungog roads and a $25 million-a-year Royalties for Rejuvenation future fund.
"At least it's gone some way to addressing some of the issues we've got," Ms Gilroy said before listing land-use conflicts, tertiary education and "gaps" in the health system as some of her priorities.
On Thursday, Nationals leader John Barilaro handed out $200,000 for a new Muswellbrook Golf Club car park and $700,000 for Aberdeen Sports and Recreation Club, a day after announcing an "expert panel" of Hunter community representatives would guide spending from the rejuvenation fund.
Hunter Joint Organisation of Councils chair Bob Pynsent described the panel as a "great step" towards dealing with the challenge of a changing Hunter economy.
Labor leader Jodi McKay is due back in the electorate on Friday in her home town of Gloucester.
