A climate activist says he's 'gutted' James Shaw didn't push for more in Cabinet negotiations over New Zealand's updated Paris target, and that Cabinet didn't even sign off on what Shaw asked for, Marc Daalder reports
Agriculture would have been included in New Zealand's net zero commitments under a proposal from Climate Change Minister James Shaw, which failed to make it through Cabinet.
Excerpts of a Cabinet paper detailing updates to New Zealand's emissions reduction pledges under the Paris Agreement, obtained by climate activist Adam Currie who provided them to Newsroom, show Shaw asked for more ambitious commitments. That included expanding New Zealand's 2050 net zero goal to include all gases, including methane generated from agriculture and waste which is currently excluded from them, and committing New Zealand to reduce emissions over the next decade by 45 percent.
In the end, Cabinet only signed off on a 41 percent reduction target. The all gases pledge was nowhere to be seen when Shaw announced the new Paris target on October 31.
"It definitely says something about the absolute state of the Government. We're five years into a Labour-led Government and we still haven't had anything meaningful on climate," Currie told Newsroom.
Shaw had earlier revealed to Newsroom that he had asked Cabinet for a more ambitious target and been denied.
"It's not going to surprise you to know that I asked for more than I got. What's in the Cabinet paper will reflect that," he told Newsroom on Wednesday.
"I pushed things as far as I could."
But he had refused to release the specific numbers, saying they would be in the Cabinet papers. Although the papers have not yet been proactively released, Currie managed to obtain excerpts anyways. He said that even the 45 percent target Shaw had asked for was unambitious.
"I'm just gutted that James Shaw's target had been so weak," Currie said.
"We don't know what the Climate Minister is proposing to Cabinet. So we can buy the Greens' thing about, 'We're trying really hard, but Cabinet's not giving it'. James Shaw is always telling us that we need to be pushing the overton window, that we need to be proposing more bold things. But then he doesn't do it himself.
"James should be ashamed of himself."
A spokesperson from Shaw's office said: “Minister Shaw took options to Cabinet. As he made clear during his press conference, his preference was for a higher target. Cabinet opted for a target that was stronger than officials advised and Minister Shaw supports the Cabinet decision.
“New Zealand’s new NDC is consistent with the recommendations of the independent Climate Change Commission and will make a significant contribution towards international efforts to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
“The new target brings New Zealand up to speed with other countries’ commitments. But it will not come as a surprise to anyone that Minister Shaw would advocate for greater ambition from all countries.”
In the excerpts, Shaw writes that his target would be "both the minimum credible contribution New Zealand can make towards limiting the average global temperature rise to 1.5C, as well as our highest possible ambition in light of our national circumstances".
It would have allowed New Zealand to emit 553 million tonnes of greenhouse gases between 2021 and 2030 - about 18 million tonnes below the target that Cabinet settled on. However, as with the one signed off by Cabinet, most of these reductions would have been met through offshore mitigation.
The cost of meeting the more ambitious target would have been between $9.3 and $16.3 billion over the next decade, compared to $7.5 to $13.2 billion for a 40 percent target.
Shaw also cautioned in the paper that enshrining the net zero all gases pledge in the Paris target wouldn't have changed the domestic exemptions for agricultural methane. Instead, New Zealand would likely have had to offset its agricultural emissions in 2050 through domestic or international carbon sequestration.
Net zero targets by 2050 had been set by 56 countries and were under discussion in 75 more, according to the excerpts.
"New Zealand is, as far as we know, the only country of these 131 that has a split-gas 2050 target. We are seen as an outlier in this regard," Shaw wrote.
In comments on the paper, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade wrote that it supported the more ambitious proposals. Treasury and the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment opposed them.
