As the IPCC warns of sea level rise, melting glaciers and extreme heat, the Government has struggled to put together a coherent and ambitious climate programme, Marc Daalder writes
Comment: The Government's plan to tackle climate change is shaping up to be ambitious on transport, but is lacking in most other sectors, even as the catastrophic impacts of climate change become clearer than ever.
On Wednesday, Climate Change Minister James Shaw released a disappointing consultation document on the draft Emissions Reduction Plan. The document proposes a range of bold policies in the transport space, including a scheme to pay low-income people to replace their high-emitting vehicles with cleaner ones, and a hard limit on importing the most polluting cars.
But it barely mentions agriculture, the source of nearly half of New Zealand's emissions, and has few new proposals for the energy, building and forestry sectors.
There are good reasons for all of this, Shaw said. The point of the consultation is to gather ideas from the private sector and from the public on how best to reduce emissions. That's why between a quarter and two-thirds of the emissions reductions needed in the first emissions budget period - 2022 to 2025 - aren't accounted for.
Moreover, agriculture is about to undergo a separate consultation over the summer, as the He Waka Eke Noa partnership with the primary sector presents its work.
These are all good reasons for the lack of detail in the document and for the Government's decision to delay releasing the final Emissions Reduction Plan by five months in order to undertake the consultation properly.
Unfortunately, neither atmospheric physics nor the global community place too much weight on New Zealand government processes.
He Waka Eke Noa formed two years ago. We are coming up on the one-year anniversary of the Government's declaration of a climate emergency. These are reasonably quick timescales for action in government, but they are not quick enough for the planet.
When Shaw arrives in Glasgow for the major COP26 climate summit in November, he won't have much backing him. He will bring a new Paris target and an updated climate finance commitment - both yet to be released - but he won't be able to show off a draft Emissions Reduction Plan charting exactly how New Zealand will achieve its climate aims.
Already, Newsroom has reported on growing doubts among New Zealand's climate-conscious trading partners as to the Government's dedication to fighting climate change. The delayed release of the final plan and the lack of detail in this interim step will only reinforce those doubts.
This sort of criticism of New Zealand's climate record truly rankles the Government. In part, that's because Jacinda Ardern is proud of her international reputation as a climate leader. And in part, it's because our exports could be increasingly exposed to green tariffs based on New Zealand's emissions, not Ardern's speeches.
Beyond international perceptions of our achievement, however, there is the urgency of acting on climate change.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report released in August was crystal clear: "Every tonne of CO₂ emissions adds to global warming," it said.
In the five months between December 31, when the Emissions Reduction Plan was originally due, and the new deadline of May 31, New Zealand will emit well over 10 million gross tonnes of carbon dioxide.
Some catastrophic impacts of climate change are already locked in as a result of the world's past failure to rein in emissions. That includes sea level rise of two to three metres over the coming centuries, continued melting of glaciers and ice sheets (including those in New Zealand) and temperatures will rise for the next three decades regardless of what we do today.
But the most grievous climate disasters can be averted, the IPCC found, if we engage in "deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions".
Methane in particular could be crucial. The short-lived but powerful atmospheric warmer most commonly arises from fossil fuel production, but New Zealand's main source of it is our sheep and cows.
"Strong, rapid and sustained reductions" in methane emissions will be needed to offset additional warming that will occur as we decarbonise.
Without a holistic and urgent approach, "global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st Century".
The delays to the climate plan may have been necessary and the fragmented and vague consultation document may have been unavoidable, but the Government will have to work harder to ensure that the final Emissions Reduction Plan has the depth and breadth needed for New Zealand to play its part in combatting the climate crisis.
