The upcoming European elections – considered the largest transnational vote in the world – are poised to bring about shifts in policies and leadership that will reverberate across the continent. RFI takes a look at what's at stake.
From 6 to 9 June this year, more than 400 million European voters will choose a new five-year parliament.
Elections in the European Union's 27 member states will decide the make-up of the roughly 700-seat assembly, charged with overseeing European legislation.
The Strasbourg-based parliament will also confirm the appointment of Brussels' top officials, including the president of the European Commission.
The EU's last election was held in 2019, with member states choosing a polling day according to their national traditions.
The Netherlands, for example, votes on a Thursday, Malta on a Saturday and France on Sunday.
This year's vote will be the first European election without British candidates, the UK having officially left the EU in 2020.
Balancing the budget
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said she won't run as an MEP, but is nonetheless expected to seek a second term as head of the Commission – and is likely to retain the backing of centre-right MEPs and key member states if she does.
Whether von der Leyen remains in post or not, the introduction of new policy priorities by the European Council and Parliament – alongside the appointment of new commissioners – will inevitably reshape the political agenda.
The shift comes against the backdrop of crucial issues for Europe and the world, including the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict, the green transition and economic challenges.
The EU is grappling with the aftermath of borrowing approximately €807 billion over the past four years to mitigate the economic and social impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The extension of EU foreign policy actions – such as providing aid and managing migration in conflict zones like Ukraine and southern European states – is expected to pressure the bloc to disburse an additional €70 billion in 2024.
As the EU budget comes under scrutiny, the bloc is seeking to revive pre-Covid fiscal rules designed to contain debt and deficits, typically a touchy issue among member states.
Decisions on these matters rest in the hands of EU finance ministers and a compromise of sorts was reached in December, when ministers agreed to maintain limits on how much governments can go into the red while giving them more time and flexibility to bring their spending down.
The European Parliament has to sign off on the proposal before it can become law, which its proponents are hoping will happen before the elections in June.
Top issues for Europe
Aside from public spending, incoming MEPs and EU commissioners will have plenty to tackle.
Energy and climate policy
In the wake of the recent Cop28 climate conference in Dubai, the EU is under pressure to reinforce its commitment to sustainable practices and a green transition.
Geopolitics
With the war in Ukraine showing no sign of ending and the Israel-Hamas conflict threatening both regional and international security, key geopolitical concerns – including relations with China, the United States, Russia and the African continent – will demand strategic attention from the EU's incoming leadership.
EU expansion
Progress has been made on the contentious issue of integrating states from the Western Balkans, notably Albania and North Macedonia. But relations between Serbia and Kosovo remain strained and Bosnia and Herzegovina also has urgent internal issues to address before it can join the bloc.
Security
Emphasis will be placed on security, defence, cybersecurity, data protection and telecommunications. The spike in hostilities between Israel and its neighbours over the conflict in Gaza has also raised the spectre of radicalisation and Islamist terrorist attacks within the European Union.
Artificial intelligence
As technology advances, regulations surrounding artificial intelligence will likely be on the agenda to balance innovation with ethical considerations. The EU has already positioned itself as the benchmark legislator for regulating AI development.
EU competitiveness
The new Commission will face pressure on issues related to industry, infrastructure, regulations, workforce skills, investments, technology, trade, innovation and the overall economy.
Economic security
Addressing capital markets, health and economic security will be critical to ensure the resilience of the European economy.
Tax regulation and workers' rights
The EU leadership is likely to address tax regulations, workers' rights and income distribution, responding to the evolving needs of the European workforce.
Trade disputes
Within the framework of the World Trade Organization, efforts to resolve multilateral trade disputes are anticipated to be a priority.
Shifting sands
Amidst these challenges, political landscapes across Europe have shifted in the five years since the last EU elections.
The centrist European People's Party (EPP) – to which von der Leyen belongs – faces historic weakening within the European Council, but her candidacy remains a prominent and popular option for EU heads of state and governments.
Meanwhile, like some member states' assemblies, the European Parliament is expected to shift to the right in the June elections.
While the EPP is likely to maintain its position, smaller member states may be key in shaking up the status quo.
Predictions suggest a challenging environment for the centre-left. French President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Renaissance party is losing ground in France and the Greens are facing similar challenges in Germany.
Potential outcomes range from a far-right Europe to a conservative coalition; a green and centre-right alliance; or a continuation of the existing centre-left and centre-right coalition.
Whatever the outcome, the 2024 European elections will reshape Europe's politics, policies and leadership.
