Shake Shack Inc. (NYSE: SHAK) is proactively managing escalating beef costs through a strategic blend of modest menu price adjustments and robust sales performance.
According to an analysis from Truist, a mid-August menu price increase of approximately 2% was observed. This move, characterized as a pull-forward from a planned October increase, was designed to mitigate the sharp 35.4% year-over-year surge in beef prices during the third quarter, the most significant jump since 2021.
The pricing strategy was selective, with minimal increases on entry-level items like the ShackBurger Single (+1.0%), fries (+0.5%), and Vanilla Shake (+0.2%), while premium offerings such as the SmokeShack Single and ShackBurger Double saw more pronounced jumps of +5.7% and +4.3%, respectively.
Also Read: What’s Going On With Shake Shack Stock Today?
Despite these actions, Truist slightly revised its adjusted EBITDA projections, lowering the 2025 forecast to $215.6 million from $216.3 million and the 2026 forecast to $250.7 million from $251.6 million. Both figures, however, remain comfortably within the company’s full-year guidance.
Analysts, led by Jake Bartlett, maintained a Buy rating on the stock but adjusted their price forecast to $156 from $162 following the earnings estimate revisions.
The brokerage anticipates that Shake Shack’s restaurant-level margins will stand at 22.5% in 2025 and 23.0% in 2026, a slight reduction from previous estimates of 22.6% and 23.1%.
These figures align with the company’s guidance and come amid expectations of broader food and paper inflation, which is projected to rise +3.5% in the third quarter and +5.0% in the fourth quarter before moderating.
On the sales front, Truist raised its third-quarter same-store sales estimate to +3.5%, a figure exceeding the +2.8% consensus.
This improvement is credited to successful marketing initiatives, including digital promotions like the “Dubai Shake” and “$1 Soda” campaigns, as well as the launch of the new French Onion Soup Burger.
The positive sales momentum builds on a strong second-quarter performance, where the company reported adjusted earnings of 44 cents per share on revenue of $356.5 million, surpassing analyst expectations of 37 cents per share and $352.3 million, respectively.
For the third quarter, Shake Shack’s management guided for sales between $358 million and $364 million, aligning with Wall Street’s forecast of $362.9 million. The company also reaffirmed its full-year 2025 revenue outlook of $1.40 billion to $1.50 billion.
“Shake Shack appears to have missed the estimate and hit the low-end of guidance for the third quarter of 2025 company store openings, but we see little risk to 2025 guidance,” Bartlett stated.
While store growth has lagged slightly in the third quarter with 13 openings against an expected 14, Truist maintained its full-year forecast of 48 new locations.
At a current share price of $92.40, Shake Shack trades at 16.6x NTM EV/EBITDA, a valuation near historic lows and well below its pre-COVID three-year average of 27.5x.
Price Action: SHAK shares were trading higher by 2.78% to $94.97 at last check Monday.
Read Next:
Photo by Ned Snowman via Shutterstock
