RALEIGH, N.C. _ North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory was in a fight for his political life. His ardent defense of House Bill 2, a law deemed so discriminatory by some sports leagues that they pulled more than a dozen championship events from the state, had left him with strongly unfavorable ratings from moderates. With a month left before Election Day, the sitting governor trailed his Democratic opponent by nearly double digits.
Then, the remnants of Hurricane Matthew brought record river levels to parts of the state. At least 22 people died.
McCrory's constant presence on television for twice-daily news conferences during the flooding helped his poll numbers greatly. His favorability rating jumped from 39 percent in late August to 49 percent this past week.
Democrats hope they can keep as many as eight governorships in this election and take two more from Republicans, including McCrory's.
Twelve states will elect governors Tuesday.
The Obama years, especially since the emergence of the tea party wing of the Republican Party in 2010, have been brutal for the Democrats. During that time they lost 59 of 94 elections for governorships.
In late summer, two Democrats had healthy leads that, by fall, have thinned out to nearly even races. Roy Cooper, McCrory's opponent in North Carolina, and Chris Koster in Missouri are now in tight contests with their Republican opponents.
If Republicans win in toss-up races, they would tie their own record for the most postwar governorships held by one party. They now hold 31. Democrats hold 18. Alaska Gov. Bill Walker is an independent.
Six sitting governors have recently left office due to term limits, retirement, unpopularity, or runs for federal office.
Close races:
��North Carolina. After trailing by more than nine points in late August polling, McCrory has pulled into a virtual tie with his Democratic opponent, state Attorney General Roy Cooper, according to a Monmouth University Poll conducted Oct. 20-23. But McCrory remains so unpopular in urban and suburban parts of the state that Democrats in down-ballot races have tied their opponents to McCrory in negative ads, which is unusual treatment of an incumbent.
��Indiana. When Gov. Mike Pence dropped out to become Donald Trump's GOP presidential running mate in July, Republican Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb had to hurriedly step in, giving his opponent, Democrat John Gregg, an early advantage. Gregg's lead is tightening in conservative Indiana, where Holcomb trailed by six points in a poll released Oct. 31. With Gregg leading, the Democrat's fundraising disadvantage apparently didn't hurt him. Holcomb raised $7.7 million to Gregg's $4.5 million in the third quarter, but Gregg had about $2 million more in cash on hand.
��Vermont. In Vermont, an unpopular outgoing governor gave way to two political veterans whose race will be decided by independent voters. Early polling showed three-term Republican Lt. Gov. Phil Scott and Democrat Sue Minter in a dead heat, but Scott has since appeared to take the lead. Minter, who was most recently Vermont's transportation secretary, has sought to distance herself from deeply unpopular outgoing Gov. Peter Shumlin, also a Democrat, while aligning with Sen. Bernie Sanders, the state's most popular politician. Independents have been breaking significantly toward Scott, with 54 percent to Minter's 12 percent.
��Missouri. One of the most famous ads of the political season came from Missouri, where a Senate candidate assembled an AR-15 while blindfolded to demonstrate his Second Amendment credentials. That candidate, a Democrat, demonstrated the lengths candidates must go in Missouri to assure voters of their commitment to traditional conservative principles.
Chris Koster, the Democratic candidate for governor is no different, making it clear to prospective voters that he supports a bill that eliminates training requirements to carry a concealed weapon. Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon vetoed the bill. Koster also checked another conservative box with his support of a bill requiring a government ID to vote. But Koster's double-digit lead over the summer has thinned considerably. Now, Koster is tied with retired Navy SEAL Eric Greitens, a Republican, in a Monmouth poll released in late October.
��New Hampshire. The race for governor of New Hampshire has stayed close, with the Republican and Democratic candidates trading a slight lead back and forth late in the election season. Gov. Maggie Hassan, a Democrat, is challenging a vulnerable Republican opponent in the U.S. Senate election. Republican Chris Sununu held a six-point lead over Democrat Colin Van Ostern this summer. Sununu, the son of a former Republican governor, and Van Ostern are members of New Hampshire's Executive Council, which with the governor approves state spending.
By the fall, however, Sununu's lead had weakened slightly, and a Monmouth University telephone survey found Van Ostern leading. By early November, however, Sununu had recaptured a slim lead in both a Boston Globe poll and one by WBUR.
��West Virginia. In West Virginia, Democrats appear to have a lead in spite of the national party's perception in the state.
Democrat Jim Justice, a former coal executive, held an 11-point lead over Republican Senate President Bill Cole in an Oct. 12-17 poll by MetroNews West Virginia. Cole's campaign responded that its internal polling showed the candidates in a dead heat.
The Obama administration's arms-length treatment of coal made state voters deeply suspicious of national Democrats. Justice has worked past Hillary Clinton's and President Barack Obama's unpopularity in the state by ignoring them completely in his campaign, instead focusing on the business success that has made him West Virginia's only billionaire.
��Montana. Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock maintains a lead over Republican Greg Gianforte, a Bozeman businessman. A Montana State University Billings poll found support for Bullock at 44 percent to Gianforte's 32 percent, but a Mason-Dixon Polling and Research poll commissioned by Lee Newspapers found Bullock with just a two-point lead.
Like Missouri, candidates in Montana must prove their adherence to conservatism, regardless of party. The Montana State University poll found voters slightly opposed to recreational marijuana while judging the Affordable Care Act as a failure in the state. They strongly rejected a ban on trapping animals on public lands.
Safe races:
��Delaware: The only state to lose its sitting governor but avoid a competitive race, Delaware remains solidly Democratic in polling. A University of Delaware poll found Democrat John Carney leading Republican Colin Bonini, 54 percent to 25 percent.
��North Dakota. No polling has been done in North Dakota, where Republican Gov. Jack Dalrymple is retiring and Republican Doug Burgum is expected to replace him. Burgum, a businessman and former Microsoft executive, is considered a safe bet to defeat Democrat Marvin Nelson.
��Oregon. Former Gov. John Kitzhaber's reign ended last year in scandal. Into the fray stepped Kate Brown, the secretary of state and a Democrat, who is running in a special election. A Republican hasn't won the governorship here since 1983, and that streak is expected to continue against little-known Republican Bud Pierce.
��Utah. The surprising news out of Utah comes in the presidential race, where the state's Mormon population has turned against Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. The governorship here, however, is business as usual. Republicans dominate the state Beehive State, and that is expected to continue this year with incumbent Gary Herbert, who faces no real threat from Democrat Mike Weinholtz.
��Washington. The governor, Democrat Jay Inslee, maintains a double-digit lead over Republican Bill Bryant, 51 percent to 39 percent, according to pollster Stuart Elway. The liberal state is trending slightly more for Inslee than it did during the summer, even though his overall approval ratings have been low for most of his term.
