ANALYSIS – Just five months ago, Michigan Democrat Gary Peters was the only senator to have decided against reelection next year. Now there are seven open Senate seats, above the average for an election cycle, with potentially more departures to come.
North Carolina Republican Thom Tillis was the latest to join the ranks of retiring senators, with his recent decision not to seek a third term. His surprise announcement also highlighted an important lesson when following politicians’ plans: Things can change.
Tillis had kicked off his reelection campaign in December and had been raising money for another race until President Donald Trump threatened to back a primary challenger over his opposition to Republicans’ sweeping budget reconciliation bill.
Tillis joins four Democrats (Peters, Tina Smith of Minnesota, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Dick Durbin of Illinois) and two Republicans (Tommy Tuberville of Alabama and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky) in the Senate exodus. All are retiring, with the exception of Tuberville, who’s running for governor.
There’s been an average of five open Senate seats each election cycle since at least 1930, when Herbert Hoover was president and there were only 48 states in the union.
Nine senators didn’t seek reelection in 2024, 10 left in 2012, and 12 didn’t run in 2010. But the modern record was set in 1996, when 13 senators did not seek reelection, according to Vital Statistics on Congress.
It’s pretty unlikely the current Senate class reaches those heights, but several senators could push this cycle’s total open seats higher still.
Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst made national news in May when she told a town hall crowd, “We all are going to die,” in response to an attendee shouting that people would die as a result of proposed Medicaid changes. Her comments expedited the plans of her Democratic challengers and have complicated her reelection plans. Now, according to The Wall Street Journal, the GOP senator might be reconsidering running for a third term.
Texas Sen. John Cornyn is in a precarious political position, with polls showing him trailing controversial state Attorney General Ken Paxton in next year’s Republican primary. GOP strategists are confident the senator will prevail after the campaign is litigated, but Cornyn currently faces the prospects of losing to a hated foe or bowing out before losing to said hated foe.
The Wall Street Journal reported last month that Cornyn “would be willing to step aside for the right candidate to defeat Paxton.” But the senator followed up with his own statement: “I will be on the primary ballot, no matter what. There is no other candidate who can win that race in the primary and keep the seat Republican in November.”
Like Tillis, Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy has been at odds with Trump and has already drawn a handful of primary challengers. The president has not been as vocal in recent months against Cassidy, who voted to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial, but it’s possible that the relationship devolves to a point at which the senator decides it’s not worth running again.
Maine Sen. Susan Collins has not formally launched her campaign for a sixth term. Back in November, she told the Washington Examiner that it was her plan to run again. The GOP senator offered similar sentiments to CNN in May. “It’s certainly my inclination to run, and I’m preparing to do so,” Collins said. “I very much enjoy serving the people of Maine. I’ve obviously not made a formal announcement because it’s too early for that.” Last time around, during the 2020 cycle, Collins formally declared for reelection in mid-December 2019.
Collins’ decision is more important to her party than her other colleagues’ plans, because she might be the only Republican who can win a Senate election in Maine in 2026. Maine is the only state represented by a Republican senator where Democrat Kamala Harris finished ahead of Trump last fall. It’s a must-win state for Senate Democrats, who need to gain four seats for a majority. But that task will be very hard if Collins runs again. On the other hand, an open seat would be a ripe takeover target.
Democrats could see more retirements as well.
Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley has not made his future plans public. Back in April, his campaign spokesperson gave a noncommittal response to Willamette Week: “Jeff is 100% focused on defeating Trump’s agenda. As usual, Jeff and [his wife] Mary [Sorteberg], will make a formal campaign announcement regarding 2026 sometime this quarter.” Using that timeline as a guide, Merkley should have made an announcement by the end of June. Perhaps he’s waiting for a patriotic announcement on July 4?
No matter how many open seats we end up with this cycle, it’s important to avoid the temptation to group them under a singular narrative. For example, on the surface, Merkley and Cornyn might add to the exodus, but they are in very different political situations and would be leaving for very different reasons.
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