Recap: Two days of low-level talks failed to yield any progress in the US-China trade standoff, with new tit-for-tat tariffs creating further friction. Market sentiment was also pressured by the release of Fed meeting minutes pointing to another US interest-rate increase next month.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,688.59 and 1,709.90 points before closing yesterday at 1,703.82, up 0.8% from the previous week, on weak turnover averaging 41.17 billion baht a day.
Foreign investors were net sellers of 5.7 billion baht, while brokerage firms sold 357.73 million and retail investors sold 1 billion baht worth of shares. Institutional investors were net buyers of 7.1 billion.
Newsmakers: US President Donald Trump says the US economy would "collapse" if he were impeached. He made the comment on Thursday after an interviewer asked him about his mounting legal woes after his former lawyer Michael Cohen said under oath that Trump instructed him to pay hush money to two women.
The US-China trade war moved into a new gear as each side on Thursday imposed 25% tariffs on US$16 billion worth of each other's goods, including motorcycles. Two days of trade talks, the first in two months, ended inconclusively in Washington on the same day.
The S&P 500 Index has now gone 3,453 days without a fall of 20% or more, marking the longest bull market in US history. That drew a congratulatory tweet from Donald Trump. Overall the index has risen 325% from March 9, 2009, lifted by the likes of Apple, Microsoft and Amazon.
Britain has outlined plans for managing the fallout in the "unlikely" scenario of Brexit talks collapsing, warning that businesses would face more customs red tape and consumers risked higher credit-card payment charges.
Greece has successfully completed a three-year euro zone loan programme worth €61.9 billion. It was part of the biggest bailout in global financial history, totalling €289 billion, which will take decades to repay. Deeply unpopular cuts to public spending, a condition of the bailout, are set to continue.
Malaysia will shelve three China-backed projects worth $22 billion until the debt-laden country can afford to pay for them, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said on Tuesday in Beijing. The projects include the east coast railway and two gas pipelines.
Saudi Arabia has denied reports that it had cancelled its plans to sell shares in the state oil giant Aramco. Reuters earlier reported that financial advisers had abandoned a plan to sell 5% of the firm, which would have been the biggest IPO in history.
The Thai economy expanded at a slower pace in the second quarter, but the National Economic and Social Development Board is maintaining its full-year forecast in a range of 4.2% to 4.7%, while raising the forecast for exports. GDP in the second quarter grew 4.6% year-on-year, down from the five-year high of 4.9% in the first quarter.
Exports grew for a 17th straight month in July, with the seven-month total at a seven-year high. Shipment values rose 8.3% year-on-year to US$20.2 billion.
SET-listed companies reported a combined net profit of 551 billion baht in the first half, up 7.6% year-on-year, led by petroleum, services and financial firms.
Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob has reaffirmed that ultra-loose monetary policy is nearing an end, saying that policymakers will consider suitable timing for an interest-rate increase.
Business confidence rose in July, boosted by the growing economy, better income distribution and goodwill arising from the Tham Luang cave rescue. The Thai Chamber of Commerce index climbed to 48.6 points from 48.4 in June and 47.7 in May.
The country's trade with 17 free-trade agreement (FTA) partners rose by 14.2% year-on-year in the first half to US$148.2 billion. Exports rose 13.3% to $73.8 billion and imports by 15.2% to $74.4 billion.
The Federation of Thai Industries expects car exports to Vietnam to continue facing difficulties, even after both governments resolved to tackle obstacles posed by Hanoi's non-tariff barriers.
The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat) is seeking to directly import liquefied natural gas for the first time as part of a government plan to boost competition in the power sector.
Mobile market leader Advanced Info Service (AIS) says the 10 megahertz of bandwidth on the 1800MHz range that it won in Sunday's auction will help lift 4G service speeds, which are among the slowest in Asia, by 15-30% after September.
Coming up: Germany will release the Ifo business climate index on Monday, with the US releasing preliminary trade figures for July and August consumer confidence on Tuesday.
Japan will release August consumer confidence on Wednesday, with Germany releasing consumer confidence for September and the US announcing second-quarter GDP data on the same day.
On Thursday, Germany will release unemployment and inflation data for August. Also due are euro zone business confidence and US personal consumption data for July. Japan will release July unemployment figures on Friday and China will release the August purchasing managers' index the same day. The euro zone will also release August consumer prices.
Stocks to watch: Capital Nomura Securities suggests asset allocation consisting of stocks at 75%, cash at 7.5%, gold at 12.5% and bonds at 5%. In the short term, focus on ICT stocks such as ADVANC and TRUE given lower competition following the 1800MHz spectrum auction. The firm also expects the Thailand Future Fund to be launched soon, which would benefit STEC, CK and AMATA.
Stocks that will benefit from the high tourism season are AOT, ERW and BH. Capital Nomura also recommends domestic plays in the second half such as PTT, IVL, BBL, KBANK, CPALL, CK, STEC, SEAFCO, PYLON, AMATA and GOLD.
DBS Vickers Securities Thailand suggests accumulating high-dividend yield stocks such as KKP, PSH, LALIN, SENA, TMT, MODERN, BCP, MC, SNC, DIF, JASIF and CPNREIT.
Technical view: Phillip Securities Thailand sees support at 1,685 points and resistance at 1,720. DBS Vickers Securities Thailand sees support at 1,680 and resistance at 1,720.
