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Forbes

Business

Peter Kahn, Contributor

Sergey Kovalev vs. Anthony Yarde: Fight Odds, Undercard, Predictions and How to Watch

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Although both fighters seemed all cheery at their weigh-in, someone’s not going home smiling on Saturday, August 24, as WBO light heavyweight champion Sergey Kovalev defends his world title against the undefeated and hard hitting Anthony Yarde. The Top Rank show at the Traktor Sport Palace in Chelyabinsk, Russia will air live on ESPN+ at 12:30 p.m. ET.

THE ODDS

According to the boxing odds at MyBookie Kovalev is a -180 favorite while Yarde is a +150 underdog. Although I agree with Kovalev being the favorite, I feel the oddsmakers are making a mistake here with the line. It’s great value for bettors that will have action on Kovalev to win, as I feel he should be a larger favorite, especially fighting in his hometown against the British-based Yarde, who has never fought anyone of Kovalev’s caliber—or outside the United Kingdom.

PREDICTION

Although I feel that the 36-year-old Kovalev will test Yarde’s chin early and look to close the show in the early to mid rounds, if Kovalev can’t get the job done, he’ll settle into boxing for the remainder of the fight as he did against Eleider Alvarez in their rematch. Then he will do whatever it takes to win rounds on the scorecards en route to a decision. Kovalev’s world championship experience, level of opposition and having been in big pressure fights will be the difference against Yarde. Although a big puncher with 17 knockouts in 18 fights, this is the 28-year-old Yarde’s first world title fight, a big step up in competition. And even though he has the advantage of youth and he’s undefeated, Yarde simply doesn’t have anyone on his resume that would lead me to believe he’s going to beat Kovalev.

Although while Kovalev may have some distractions and pressure fighting in his hometown, he is a seasoned professional who has been in the ring with some of the top light heavyweights in the sport. While Kovalev is on the tail end of his career, there’s just too much as stake with a potential Canelo Alvarez fight in May for Kovalev, to allow Yarde to derail those plans. This is a big step up for Yarde and while he has youth and strength on his side, there’s still a big question mark as to what will happen if Kovalev takes Yarde into deep water in the late rounds. Yarde just might drown.

I’m picking Kovalev by decision.