Most of the buzz before and during Friday’s French Open singles draw ceremony centered around where No6 seed and nine-time defending champion Rafael Nadal would fall, with the inevitability that he could face one of the top four seeds if he reaches the quarter-final stage. The worst-case scenario occurred; Nadal and No1 Novak Djokovic were drawn in the same quarter.
But if there can be only one men’s and one women’s champion three Sundays from now, a good result can be measured in a lot of different ways for the 127 players in each draw who won’t be holding up the trophy.
With that in mind, here are the seven American men and – wait for it – 17 women (more than one out of every eight women in the field) in the singles. We outline whom they face first, how far they might go, and what would be a good French Open result for players from a nation that has traditionally struggled on the terre battue.
[1] Serena Williams
First-round opponent: [Q] Andrea Hlavackova (CZE)
The best player in women’s tennis can scarcely do worse than a year ago, when she flamed out to Garbiñe Muguruza of Spain in the second round. In 2013, she dropped just one set on the way to victory. Which Serena will show this year? Well, she left Rome early under pretext of nursing a sore elbow; that precautionary effort to manage her health is something she said she didn’t do a year ago, which contributed to her early loss. Williams will be able to ease her way into Paris; she was drawn to face qualifier Andrea Hlavackova, more of a doubles specialists these days, in the first round, then the winner of Friedsam and the American Alexa Glatch in the second round. But then, it gets awfully complicated – and personal. If she can get past scheduled opponent Victoria Azarenka (finally seeded in a Slam, at No27) in the third round (an unfortunate draw for both) her sister Venus could be standing in her way in the fourth round. If she passes that test, best friend Caroline Wozniacki could be next. And then, possibly Petra Kvitova.
In the end, the only acceptable result, from Williams’s point of view, is the holding aloft of the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen.
[15] Venus Williams
First-round opponent: Sloane Stephens
It’s a tough one for both, and certainly a tough one for American tennis fans. And it’s another early tough matchup for Williams, who faced (unseeded) Azarenka in the first round in Madrid, and world No3 Simona Halep in the third round in Rome. Williams turns 35 before Wimbledon rolls around this year; you never know how many more time she might play an event. So a first-round exit in Paris wouldn’t be the way she wants to go out, even though it has never been her best Slam. Williams has never won it; she reached the final in 2002, losing to her sister. Four quarter-final appearances have been the best she has fared at Roland Garros beyond that.
[16] Madison Keys
First-round opponent: Varvara Lepchenko (USA)
With so many American women in the draw, some of them were bound to meet each other. For Keys, who was the top seed at the final tuneup event in Strasbourg this week (but pulled out before a quarter-final matchup against Kristina Mladenovic), this isn’t a bad matchup. This is only the third time Keys has played the French Open (she never played the junior event) and she’s already in the top 16 seeds. She brings a 1-2 French Open record into this year that can only get better. She proved against Mirjana Lucic-Baroni in the second round in Strasbourg that she’s willing to get her sock(ettes) dirty, crawling back from a 4-6, 0-5 deficit to win in a third-set tiebreaker. If she gets through the first one, Keys is looking at a very friendly draw until a potential fourth-round clash against No4 seed Kvitova.
Madison Brengle
First-round opponent: [26] Samantha Stosur (AUS)
The unheralded 25-year-old is playing the best tennis of her career, and has logged plenty of clay-court time this spring even if she’s had some tough draws. Brengle’s run to the semi-finals on the indoor clay in Stuttgart was a shocker; her losses this spring to Serena Williams, Keys, Petkovic and Kerber rather less so. In Stosur, she gets an opponent who’s not in the best form of her career, but one who knows how to reach the French Open final, having done it five years ago. Stosur squeezed out a victory in their only meeting, at Hobart just before the 2014 Australian Open on a hard court. The Aussie won 6-7, 6-1, 7-6. This will be a different Brengle, but it also will be a different surface.
[WC] Louisa Chirico
First-round opponent: [9] Ekaterina Makarova (RUS)
Chirico, who turned 19 last week, earned her wild card with her efforts on the ITF Har-Tru circuit in the US this spring. In her only French Open junior appearance in 2013, she reached the semi-finals, losing to now-top-40 player Belinda Bencic of Switzerland. She had a fair bit of experience on the red dirt in juniors, most of it in South America. And she has played plenty (and won plenty) on the American Har-Tru, which resembles its earthier counterpart but only somewhat. This will only be the fourth top-level main draw match of Chirico’s career, and experience at this level isn’t something you can find on the way up. For a top-10 player, Makarova has had a terrible clay-court campaign. So there’s that to perhaps build some belief on.
Lauren Davis
First-round opponent: Mirjana Lucic-Baroni (CRO)
Although Davis is ranked slightly higher, Lucic-Baroni is bigger, stronger and hits a whole lot harder. That said, Davis is 3-0 in her career against her, with two of the three victories coming on clay/Har-Tru, the most recent in Rome a year ago. Davis’s diminutive size kind of makes her the underdog in most of her matches, but underestimate her at your peril. She will run all day long and compete even harder. Unfortunately for her, Simona Halep would loom in the next round.
Irina Falconi
First-round opponent: [WC] Manon Arcangioli (FRA)
Drawing a home-country wild card in a Grand Slam is about as good as it gets, and Arcangioli, a 20-year-old ranked No275, is a break. Arcangioli had received two previous French Open qualifying wild cards (when she was outside the top 400), and lost in the first round both times. The winner could play Jelena Jankovic of Serbia.
Nicole Gibbs
First-round opponent: Alexandra Dulgheru (ROU)
An unseeded opponent is always good, but Dulgheru, currently ranked No50, is an experienced, quality opponent, a former top-30 player who is rounding back into form after a couple of years of health issues (including knee and wrist surgeries). Other than the US Open (where she has received several main-draw wild cards), this is only the second Grand Slam main draw for Gibbs, after getting direct entry into the Australian Open in January.
[Q] Alexa Glatch
First-round opponent: Anna-Lena Friedsam (GER)
The Newport Beach, California native, who was sidelined by injury for a long time and built her ranking back into the top 200 from nothing, posted three quality wins in the qualifying against players from Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. There’s no reason she can’t handle Friedsam, who is capable of the best and the worst on a tennis court. Glatch’s nifty slice sets her apart from the rest of the American contingent; it’s a legitimate one-hander, one that looks honed through the years, not added in haste late in the game.
Varvara Lepchenko
First-round opponent: [16] Madison Keys (USA)
Lepchenko has had some health woes in 2015. And her disposition probably didn’t improve when she saw the draw. Ranked No34, she just missed the cut to be one of the 32 seeds and although it could have been worse (she might have drawn Serena Williams, with whom she practiced Friday in Paris), it’s a tough ask. Lepchenko has played little tennis in the last six weeks – just five matches, four of them losses.
Bethanie Mattek-Sands
First-round opponent: [30] Irina-Camelia Begu (ROU)
Begu is capable of looking like a top-20 player one minute, and a player out of the top 100 the next. Her best is very, very good. Mattek-Sands faced countrywoman Sloane Stephens twice in her three clay-court events this spring, both times losing in three sets after winning the first set. She will have to try to forget her recent history against Begu, a 6-2, 6-4 loss on red clay at the WTA Tour event in Rio this winter.
Christina McHale
First-round opponent: [Q] Lourdes Dominguez Lino (ESP)
McHale is so quiet that it’s to overlook both her struggles the last couple of seasons and her recent uptick in form. Despite her tiny Spanish opponent’s clay-court pedigree, this is a pretty good first-round draw. McHale had to play the qualifying both in Madrid and Rome. She got through both, and made it all the way to the quarter-finals in Rome, helped by a walkover gifted to her by Serena Williams in the third round. Dominguez Lino, 34, has played in just one WTA Tour main draw this year, but has lifted her ranking up close to the top 100 again by winning a lot of matches at smaller tournaments. She has never done well in Paris in her long career.
Alison Riske
First-round opponent: [17] Sara Errani (ITA)
A few years ago, drawing Errani on her preferred clay in the first round of the French Open would have you pre-packing your bags. But if Errani isn’t quite what she once was, Riske isn’t exactly an accomplished player on the surface, preferring grass and hard courts. Riske’s clay-court season (indeed, her 2015 season as a whole) has been undistinguished so far; this likely isn’t the match where she turns that round. On the good-news side, grass awaits.
Shelby Rogers
First-round opponent: [10] Andrea Petkovic (GER)
Let’s reiterate, with 17 women in the women’s singles draw, all but three unseeded, there was a pretty good chance fortune wasn’t going to favor most of them. For Rogers, that turned out to mean a high seed. But it also means a high seed who has had a lot of physical issues lately. Petkovic pulled out of Madrid before her second match because of illness, missed Rome, and retired down 0-5 in her first match in Nürnberg this week because of a thigh injury. The problem is, Rogers has played just two clay-court matches this season, both losses. The two have met once before, in Bad Gastein a year ago on clay. Petkovic won 6-3, 6-3. This doesn’t appear to be top-form Petkovic, though; Rogers may catch a break.
Sloane Stephens
First-round opponent: [15] Venus Williams
Stephens has to figure the draw gods will eventually turn in her favor at majors, after she drew Victoria Azarenka in the first round in Australia (to be fair, Azarenka also was unseeded). And also had Serena Williams in the second round in Madrid. It may happen, but not this time. Stephens has shown some encouraging signs in 2015 of coming back from what could be called her “sophomore slump” after a 2013 season that featured some impressive results at Grand Slams. Somewhat surprisingly, Stephens and the elder Williams have never met; they were due to play in Miami in 2013, but Stephens won by walkover. This is a pretty glam matchup for a first-rounder between a lower seed and a non-seed – it might even register in Paris, and get a decent show court.
Taylor Townsend
First-round opponent: Tereza Smitkova (CZE)
Townsend disappeared off the face of the tennis earth this winter, with reports circulating that she had a walking cast or boot on her foot for a good period of time. Since Indian Wells in early March, Townsend has hardly played at all – one first-round loss at a small ITF event in Florida, and a first-round loss in the qualifying at Strasbourg last weekend. Quite obviously, she’s in no way ready to take on a major. But she’s here. After a few coaching changes, Townsend is currently under the tutelage of Donald Young’s father, Donald Young Sr. It’s a Chicago connection between two families who have known each other forever; the Youngs were involved in Townsend’s coaching when she was a kid.
Coco Vandeweghe
First-round opponent: Julia Goerges (GER)
Julia Goerges isn’t the same opponent she was a few years ago (remember, she once won Stuttgart on indoor clay). But she’s still an experienced one. Meanwhile, Vandeweghe has played just a few clay matches – three going into this week. But two of them were pretty good efforts; she defeated Sabine Lisicki in Madrid, and took eventual champion Petra Kvitova to three sets in her next match. Vandeweghe lost to Stephens in Strasbourg this week.
Over-under on how many of the women make it through the first round? Nine
[16] John Isner
First-round opponent: Andreas Seppi (ITA)
It seems to surprise people that Isner is a pretty good clay-court player and, more importantly, he doesn’t mind playing on it. The firepower of the monster serve and forehand might be defused a bit, but the extra time the surface gives him to get into position more than makes up for that. His first two potential opponents, Seppi and Jérémy Chardy, are experienced players with weapons. Squeezing into the No16 spot in the seedings, he drew the highest-possible potential third-round seed in No17 David Goffin. If he gets there, there could be a few ‘David and Goliath’ references, with Goffin looking more like a ballkid than a top-20 tennis player. His potential fourth-round seed – which was going to be one of the top four because of the structure of the draw – is No3 Andy Murray.
Jack Sock
First-round opponent: [10] Grigor Dimitrov
Sock has done a little damage on the clay this spring. So it’s unfortunate the draw gods weren’t kinder to him. Had the rankings from a week ago (when Sock was No33) been the deciding factor rather than this week’s list (where Sock dropped three spots to No36), he would have ended up a seeded player and thus avoided potential matchups like this one. Not that the 23-year-old can’t beat Dimitrov (who is just 16 months older but way ahead on the development curve) – nothing’s impossible – but it’s a rough one to start a Grand Slam with. It will be the first best-of-five set match of the season for Sock, who missed the Australian Open after hip surgery. There’s always doubles, but the health of Sock’s partner Vasek Pospisil is a question mark after the Canadian badly twisted his ankle trying to avoid stepping on Sock’s foot during a match in Madrid a few weeks ago.
Sam Querrey
First-round opponent: Borna Coric (CRO)
Querrey, like Sock, had a great clay-court tournament at “home” in Houston last month (Sock won it, beating Querrey in the final). But in two European clay-court tournaments, Querrey has won just one match. As it happened, it was against 19-year-old Thanasi Kokkinakis, who is one of only three teenagers in the ATP Tour’s top 100. In Paris, he will face one of the others, 18-year-old Coric, who is at a career-high No53. Coric played four clay-court events this spring, going 4-4. If Querrey wins, No18 seed Tommy Robredo could be waiting for him.
Steve Johnson
First-round opponent: [26] Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (ESP)
Johnson hasn’t had a great clay-court season. Then again, he has lost to the likes of Rafael Nadal, John Isner and Fabio Fognini; not being seeded makes it a challenge. His first-round opponent is not only a good clay-courter, he’s also in confident form after winning a smaller event in Bucharest, Romania and reaching the semi-final of a similar 250-level tournament in Portugal, where he lost to Richard Gasquet in a third-set tiebreak. It could be a brief Open for Johnson.
Tim Smyczek
First-round opponent: [15] Kevin Anderson (RSA)
Smyczek skipped the European clay-court season entirely, opting to stay in the US and play some matches on the Har-Tru Challenger circuit in the southern US. It’s probably safe to say he doesn’t have major French Open aspirations, given that lack of preparation. But if he can get a handle on Anderson’s serve, with the help the slower surface will offer him, he could at least take a run at it.
[WC] Frances Tiafoe
First-round opponent: Martin Klizan (SVK)
A year ago, Tiafoe lost in the second round of the junior French Open to Jan Choinski, a year older and currently No600 in the ATP Tour rankings. Now 17, Tiafoe has been on a far steeper learning curve. Currently ranked a career-best No291, Tiafoe went 12-3 during the three US Har-Tru Challenger events this spring and earned the US Tennis Association’s reciprocal wild card into the French Open senior version. While he could have met a seeded player in the first round, Klizan, who has three ATP Tour titles, presents a major challenge. When the 25-year-old Slovakian lefty was 16, he won the junior French Open title and ranked No35, was just out of the seedings in Paris. It’ll be interesting to see how Tiafoe does in the biggest tournament of his career – not to mention the first major of his career.
Donald Young
First-round opponent: Santiago Giraldo (COL)
Young’s career has done a full circle – from can’t-miss junior prospect to over-gifted wild-card baby, to struggling to win matches, and back to the point where he is having a viable – though obviously not superstar – career. In Giraldo, he faces a quality Colombian who is at home on the clay, but obviously an opponent against whom he can fancy his chances on any given day. If Young wins that, he could face No17 seed David Goffin – another quality opponent, but another against whom he has a shot – if he’s having a very, very good day.
Over-under on how many of the men make it through the first round? Three
