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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

UK Covid live: country faces ‘substantial third wave’, warns Professor Neil Ferguson – as it happened

People receive their Covid vaccines at a mosque in Southfields, London.
People receive their Covid vaccines at a mosque in Southfields, London. Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Afternoon summary

  • Boris Johnson has said he does not expect the row about the Northern Ireland protocol to overshadow the G7. Speaking in Cornwall, where he will hold talks with President Biden tomorrow before the G7 starting on Friday, he was asked if he thought the dispute would overshadow the summit. “I’m not worried about that,” he replied. He said the summit would be a “big moment” because it was Biden’s first major overseas trip as US president, and his first trip to Europe.
  • Johnson has claimed that finding a solution to the problems relating to the Northern Ireland protocol is “easily doable”. Asked to respond to suggestions from the US that the UK’s position might be threatening the Northern Ireland peace process (see 2.58pm), Johnson replied:

What we want is something that enables us to protect trade flows, east/west as well as north/south, and it’s easily doable. I’m very, very optimistic about this. I think that’s easily doable.

And the reason to do that is because that is the way to preserve the essential balance of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement, which has to look at things both north/south, on the island of Ireland, but also east/west. Don’t forget, the bulk of the trade from Northern Ireland goes east/west.

It is probably fair to say that “easily doable” is not an assessment shared by almost anyone else who has looked at how the UK’s position and the EU’s might be reconciled, and this comment probably says more about Johnson’s innate, evidence-immune optimism than it does about the prospects of a solution. (Ironically, the EU’s Maroš Šefčovič also effectively argued at his press conference this afternoon - see 4.06pm - that a solution was easily doable. But his plan involved the UK agreeing to align with EU sanitary and phytosanitary standards for food - something that the UK has ruled out, because the government claims it would defeat the point of Brexit.)

  • Prof Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College epidemiologist whose modelling helped to persuade Boris Johnson to order the first lockdown, has said there remains a risk of a “substantial third wave” of Covid infections. (See 4.34pm.)

That’s all from me for today. But our coronavirus coverage continues on our global live blog. It’s here.

Updated

Edwin Poots, the new DUP leader, has called for the Northern Ireland protocol to be abandoned.

Boris Johnson standing next to a solar panel on a visit to the the Scottish Power Carland Cross Windfarm in Newquay, Cornwall, this afternoon.
Boris Johnson standing next to a solar panel on a visit to the the Scottish Power Carland Cross Windfarm in Newquay, Cornwall, this afternoon. Photograph: Jon Super/AP

Latest modelling suggests risk of 'substantial third wave' of Covid, says Prof Ferguson

Prof Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College epidemiologist whose modelling helped to persuade Boris Johnson to order the first lockdown, has said there remains a risk of a “substantial third wave” of Covid infections.

Speaking at a media briefing about new modelling submitted to the government in recent days he said:

[The research is] saying there is a risk of a substantial third wave - we cannot be definitive about the scale of that, it could be substantially lower than the second wave, or it could be of the same order of magnitude.

That, critically, depends on how effective the vaccines still are protecting people against hospitalisation and death against the Delta variant, as well as a few other unknowns.

Asked if delaying the roadmap date would make a difference, Ferguson said: “Yes, because it allows more people to get second doses.”

As PA Media reports, Ferguson said data on partial vaccine escape for the Delta variant was “turning up to some degree”, with “moderate” drops in vaccine efficacy.

Ferguson said it was currently difficult to resolve how cases “will translate into hospitalisations, but it’s well within the possibility that we could see a third wave at least comparable in terms of hospitalisations, maybe not as severe, as the second wave”. He went on:

Almost certainly I think deaths probably will be lower - the vaccines are having a highly protective effect, cases in hospital now are milder - but it still could be quite worrying.

Neil Ferguson
Neil Ferguson. Photograph: Antonio Olmos/The Observer

Updated

UK records 7,540 new cases, as weekly Covid cases up 66% on previous week

The UK has recorded 7,540 new coronavirus cases, according to the latest update to the government’s Covid dashboard. This is the highest daily figure for recorded cases since 26 February, and it means the total number of new cases over the past week is now up 66% on the total for the previous week.

Yesterday new cases were up 60.6% week on week.

Covid dashboard
Covid dashboard. Photograph: Gov.UK

The UK has also recorded six more deaths.

The dashboard also shows that 77.3% of adults have now had a first dose of vaccine, and 54.2% have had both doses.

Updated

Summary of Šefčovič's press conference after talks with Frost on Northern Ireland protocol

Here are the main points from the press conference given by Maroš Šefčovič, the vice-president of the European Commission who is in charge of post-Brexit negotiations with the UK. It took place at the EU’s office in London and Šefčovič was there for three-quarters of an hour, taking a lot of questions and giving full, substantive answers. As an exercise in media engagement, it was an improvement on what we normally get at the Downing Street press conferences.

Here are the main points.

We have always shown solidarity with Ireland and will continue to stand by Ireland, which is the member state most affected by Brexit. This is a matter between the EU and the UK, not between the EU and Ireland.

Today I can say we are at a crossroads in our relationship with the UK.

If the UK were to take further unilateral action in the coming weeks the EU will not be shy in acting swiftly, firmly and resolutely to ensure the UK abides by its international obligations.

He said the EU was losing patience with the UK for its refusal to enforce the protocol. He said:

The fact that I mentioned that we are at a crossroads means that our patience really is wearing very, very thin, and therefore we have to assess all options we have at our disposal.

  • Šefčovič said retaliatory measures taken by the EU could include imposing tariffs. Asked what retaliatory measures the EU was proposing, he said that he was not making threats at today’s meeting with Lord Frost, the Brexit minister, but that the options were clearly set out in the Brexit agreements. There could be legal action, arbitration or “cross-retaliation”, he said. Asked to clarify what “cross-retaliation” meant, he indicated that it could lead to the imposition of tariffs in some areas. (See 1.44pm.)
  • He played down the prospect of the EU agreeing to let the UK extend the grace period for chilled meats. Asked about this, he said:

It’s very difficult for us to say we’ll just give an extension. There’s a fear we’d not be protecting public health (in EU) and if something went wrong there might be a public health issue.

The grace period is due to expire at the end of this month, and the UK government says this means products like sausages from Great Britain will not longer be able to be sold in Northern Ireland.

  • He said the best solution would be for the UK to align with EU rules on SPS (sanitary and phytosanitary) checks. He said the EU would be willing to agree this as a temporary measure.
  • He said there were “numerous and fundamental gaps” in the UK’s implementation of the protocol. He went on:

These gaps need to be filled by a mutually agreed compliant path with concrete deadlines and milestones for the UK to fulfil its existing obligations.

He said the UK had failed to deliver on a series of measures that were supposed to be in place under the protocol to check goods coming from Great Britain into Northern Ireland. He said that from February last year he was asking Michael Gove (his then UK counterpart) if measures would be ready. Gove said they were doing their best, he said. The UK said that officials would be hired, customs posts erected, IT systems developed to process the forms. Labelling was meant to be introduced for products just going to Northern Ireland, and there were meant to be simplified export health certificates.

Šefčovič went on:

Do you think these things have materialised? None. Nothing was done.

So for us it is very difficult. We do not have access to the IT system, so we do not know what is happening at the border. We have really minimal presence there. The number of checks is minimal. We do not have the tracing, the labelling and all the things promised to us.

  • He suggested the British government did not fully understand the consequences of the Brexit deal it chose. That was why more problems kept arising, he said. Asked if he agreed that the UK had signed the protocol with the intention of trying to get out of it later (as Gavin Barwell alleged this morning - see 8.48am), Šefčovič said:

When the agreement was being negotiated, it might be that our British partners couldn’t fully estimate the consequences of the Brexit they [chose], what it would mean to leave the single market, the customs union, how complex it would be for businesses, for the government, for IT systems for the training of personnel.

Now I would say gradually more and more things are coming to the table. We see it [in talks with Lord Frost.] Every time we meet there are new topics coming to the table, some of them foreseen, some of them unforeseen.

One other feature of the press conference is worth noting; it took place in person, making it probably the first major in-person press conference at Westminster for more than a year. Colleagues hope Downing Street will take note. This is from the Mirror’s Pippa Crerar.

Updated

Police feel 'deep sense of betrayal' over not being prioritised for vaccines, Patel told

The head of a staff association for rank-and-file police officers has said the service felt a “deep sense of betrayal” at being overlooked for vaccine prioritisation.

John Apter, chair of the Police Federation, which represents tens of thousands of officers, revealed he had discussions with the home secretary over the issue and the government had signalled police officers would be prioritised for jabs but the “warm words became lame actions”.

Addressing the Police Federation annual conference, Apter warned that thousands of police officers from across England and Wales would be arriving in Cornwall for the G7 summit, many of whom will not be vaccinated and travelling from areas where the Delta variant, first discovered in India, is thriving.

After Apter had spoken, Priti Patel, the home secretary, addressed the issue in her speech, saying “the government accepted the advice of the independent Joint Committee on Vaccinations and Immunisations to prioritise vaccines by age and clinical vulnerability, as the risk of serious health problems from Covid is highest for them”.

Apter said:

Since December last year, we have been highlighting our grave concerns that police officers had not been prioritised for vaccination, unlike a number of other countries who chose to protect their police officers.

We pointed out that the very nature of policing means that, on occasions, police officers will have to get up close and personal. Whether that’s making an arrest or dealing with vulnerable people needing our help.

I made it very clear the danger this presents … not only to the officers and their families … but to the wider community too.

Apter said by the nature of the job, officers could be “super-spreaders”. He added:

Home Secretary, you and I had robust discussions on this … and government indicated that my colleagues would be prioritised for the vaccine in phase two of the vaccination rollout. But then, for a number of reasons that still baffle me today, this wasn’t progressed. The government’s warm words became lame actions and the result is that that my colleagues feel a deep sense of betrayal.

John Apter.
John Apter. Photograph: Steve Parsons/PA

Updated

A total of 58,206,264 Covid-19 vaccinations took place in England between 8 December and 8 June, according to NHS England data, including first and second doses, which is a rise of 361,765 on the previous day.

As PA Media reports, NHS England said 33,998,814 were first doses, a rise of 109,068 on the previous day, while 24,207,450 were a second dose, an increase of 252,697.

And President Biden has just been tweeting about his trip to the UK. He is due to arrive tonight.

US national security adviser says NI protocol dispute should not be allowed to undermine Good Friday agreement

Jake Sullivan, Joe Biden’s national security adviser, has said that the US president will oppose anything that would imperil the Good Friday agreement. Speaking about the dispute between the UK and the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol, Sullivan said:

President Biden believes and has said that the Northern Ireland protocol, as part of the agreement between the UK and the European Union, is critical to ensuring that the spirit, promise and future of the Good Friday agreement is protected.

That being said, of course the UK and EU need to work out the specifics and the modalities on that, need to find some way to proceed that works both for the EU and the UK.

But whatever way they find to proceed must, at its core, fundamentally protect the gains of the Good Friday agreement and not imperil that. And that is the message that President Biden will send when he is in Cornwall.

This reflects what has probably been the majority view in Congress for some time. But although comments like this are often interpreted as the US siding with the EU on the issue of the protocol, the UK government argues very strongly that strict implementation of the protocol would undermine the Good Friday agreement (see 11.29am for one reason why) and so Biden’s stance does not necessarily amount to backing Brussels unconditionally.

Jack Sullivan.
Jack Sullivan. Photograph: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Updated

In his own interview with the media after the UK-EU talks, Lord Frost, the Brexit minister, said the EU wanted to implement the Northern Ireland protocol in an “extremely purist” way. He said:

What the EU is insisting on is we should operate the protocol in an extremely purist way. The reality is that it’s a very balanced document that’s designed to support the peace process and deal with the very sensitive politics in Northern Ireland.

(Yesterday, when No 10 used this line, it just accused the EU of being purist, not extremely purist.)

Frost also refused to rule out the UK triggering article 16 of the protocol, which allows one side to suspend some aspects of the agreement in extreme circumstances. Asked if this might happen, he said: “There’s a range of things we may consider and we continue to consider them.”

Updated

Q: What aspects of the Politico story were untrue?

Šefčovič says the EU is focused on making the protocol work. It is “not considering any of these eventualities”, he says.

And that’s it. The press conference is over. I will post a summary shortly.

Šefčovič says UK did not fully understand consequences of Brexit deal it chose

Q: How seriously do you take the risk of violence in Northern Ireland? And do you think the UK government is using this threat as a negotiating ploy?

Šefčovič says the EU wants to contribute to peace. That is why it has been willing to change legislation to ensure medical supplies, he says.

Q: Can you confirm the EU would not impose checks on goods leaving Ireland for the EU? (A Politico report claimed that this morning, but it has already been widely dismissed.)

Šefčovič says this Politico story was not true. He says he can say that on behalf of the EU.

Q: Do you think the UK agreed the protocol in bad faith?

This was the claim made by Gavin Barwell this morning. See 8.48am.

Šefčovič says he would not put it like that. He says when the agreement was negotiated, the British may be did not fully estimate what the consequences could be of the Brexit they had chosen.

Now “more and more things are coming to the table”, he says.

Every time he meets Lord Frost, new problems crop up. Some of them were foreseen, and some were not.

He says that was the problem.

He says the EU wants a roadmap, showing, for example, when the IT system (to administer checks at the GB/NI border) will be in place.


Updated

Q: Are you really willing to put peace in Northern Ireland at risk over checks to meat?

Šefčovič says the EU is a peace project. The protocol is designed to prevent the needs for check at the border with Ireland. So the EU agreed to let the UK conduct these checks at the GB/NI border.

He says the easiest thing would be for the UK to accept EU SPS standards.

And the EU is willing to do this on a temporary basis. He says, if the UK has a trade deal coming up, the EU would agree to the new arrangements only being temporary; this would allow time for new arrangements to be put in place at the GB/NI border for checks, he says.

Q: Is there any possibility of extending the deadline for the chilled meat restrictions?

Šefčovič says it is difficult to answer this. But he says there is a fear that if the chilled meats exemption is extended, the single market will not be protected.

Q: Do you trust Lord Frost? Or would you rather negotiate again with Michael Gove?

Šefčovič says Frost’s decision to announce the unilateral suspension of some protocol measures shortly before their first phone call did not help.

Q: Do you believe Lord Frost when he says he does not want to get rid of the protocol?

Šefčovič says he has a relationship with Frost where they can be frank and honest with each other. They have an important role, he says. He says he believes in Frost’s “best intentions”.

Q: Do you have a deadline in mind? And could the talks collapse?

Šefčovič says he did not come today to issue any ultimatums. But he explained what would happen.

Q: Would the EU retaliate in the area of financial services?

Šefčovič says the trade and cooperation agreement is clear about what retaliatory measures might be possible. But he did not come here to spell them out, he says.

Q: The 30 June deadline is not far away. What will happen if the UK takes unilateral action before then?

Šefčovič says the EU will not take these decisions lightly. He says he advised Lord Frost against further unilateral action at the meeting this morning.

He says he does not have a timetable, or a set of measures, because the EU is still hoping for a solution.

He says the UK wants additional flexibilities. Why is this so difficult for the EU? Because they do not have eyes and ears at the border (ie, the inspectors supposed to be in place under the protocol are not in place).

He also says the number of checks currently being carried out is minimal.

Updated

Q: Do you anticipate any breakthrough at the G7 summit?

Šefčovič says he cannot speak for President Biden. But he knows the Americans are following this issue closely, he says.

He says he hopes that the UK and the EU can agree solutions that will work for the people of Northern Ireland.

Q: What would you say to the US about this?

Šefčovič says this issue is being followed very closely in Congress.

He says all “big players” are closely following how the UK abides by its international obligations.

He says in the past the UK was always seen as a country that respected international agreements.

Now they are “getting phone calls from the United States” about whether this remains the case, he suggests.

He says the implementation of the protocol is the best way to protect the Good Friday agreement.

The EU will explore possibilities within it, he says. But they cannot renegotiate it, he says.

Q: How soon could it be before the EU retaliates?

Šefčovič says he was hoping for a breakthrough today in the talks.

He had an honest and frank discussion with Lord Frost, he says.

He says the legal case could end up before the European court of justice in the early autumn.

Šefčovič confirms EU could impose tariffs on some UK goods if NI protocol not implemented

Q: What do you mean by cross-retaliation? Do you mean imposing tariffs on British goods?

Šefčovič says he did not arrive today with a list, because he is looking for a solution.

But he says the possible measures are set out in the agreement. The protocol could be suspended in some areas.

And he says retaliation could mean tariff quotas being imposed in some areas (which could mean some UK goods being subject to tariffs).

Updated

EU patience with UK 'wearing very, very thin', says Šefčovič

Q: What retaliatory action would the EU take? The EU did very little when the UK acted unilaterally earlier this year. Doesn’t that suggest these are empty threats?

Šefčovič says the EU prefers negotiation.

He says the EU has been asking the UK if the grace periods allow enough time. The UK said they did. That is why the EU was surprised when the UK decided to unilaterally extend some of these grace periods.

He says if necessary the EU will go to court.

He says the EU’s patience is “wearing very, very thin”.

He says the EU could take legal action. But it is also talking about arbitration, and about cross-retaliation (ie, imposing trade restrictions on the UK).

He says the best solution would be for the UK to align with the EU on SPS standards. This would remove the need for 80% of checks, he says.

But he says the UK seems to be ruling this out for purely ideological reasons. He says they spent a lot of time today talking about this.

Updated

EU will react 'swiftly, firmly and resolutely' if UK ignores its NI protocol obligations, says Šefčovič

Šefčovič says the UK and the EU are at the crossroads.

He says trust should be at the heart of every partnership. It needs to be restored, he says.

He says if the UK were to take further unilateral action (ie, to ignore protocol obligations without the agreement of the EU), the EU would react “swiftly, firmly and resolutely” to ensure the UK sticks by its obligations.

Updated

EU says there are 'numerous and fundamental gaps' in UK's implementation of NI protocol

Šefčovič is making an opening statement.

He says they had important talks.

He starts with the joint committee meeting - the one dealing with the Northern Ireland protocol and the withdrawal agreement.

On citizens’ rights, he says EU citizens must know if they are covered by the withdrawal agreement. Both sides agreed to work to ensure this.

He says he asked about the detention of EU citizens at the border. Lord Frost said he would address this, Šefčovič says.

On the Northern Ireland protocol, he says both sides agreed in 2019 this was the best solution, and the only way to protect the Good Friday agreement.

The EU has engaged tirelessly to find solutions, he says.

In December last year some solutions were agreed, including grace periods and exemptions in areas where the UK was not ready to implement the protocol.

On medicines, he says the EU will amend its own laws to ensure supply to Northern Ireland.

But “we cannot undo the core of the protocol”, he says. He says SPS (sanitary and phytosanitary) checks must be carried out.

There are still “numerous and fundamental gaps” in the UK’s implementation of the deal, he says.

He says the UK must address these.

EU press conference following talks with Lord Frost on Northern Ireland protocol

Maroš Šefčovič, the vice-president of the European Commission who serves as the EU’s lead on post-Brexit negotiations with the UK, is holding a press conference now.

There should be a live feed here.

PMQs - Snap verdict

“People live by narrative,” Boris Johnson told the Atlantic’s Tom McTague, for a long and revealing profile this week that explains quite a lot about how Johnson views the secret of his political success. But the House of Commons is an arena where fact, argument and repartee tend to count more than narrative and that helps to explains why today Johnson put in another broadly unimpressive performance against Sir Keir Starmer.

Starmer focused on the government’s catch-up plans for pupils in England, the subject of a Labour debate starting now, and he had a relatively easy job, given that Sir Kevan Collins, who resigned last week as education recovery commissioner after the government comprehensively ignored his recommendations, had effectively written the script for him in advance. Johnson spluttered out some alternative claims and numbers in response, but Starmer quite easily had the better of the argument.

Perhaps more worryingly for Johnson was how weak his answer was when he was asked by Barry Sheerman how people would judge whether levelling up was working. This is supposed to be one areas where Johnson does have a “narrative”, but he could not answer a fairly basic question about how his policy would be judged.

Despite all that, it felt relatively routine, and Johnson did not sound like a premier facing any particular pressure. You never do if you have a huge lead in the polls, and Johnson referenced that when Starmer asked him about the cut to aid spending. Johnson said the public had a vote on this last month (in the local elections), and the Tories won. The local elections, of course, had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with cuts to the aid budget, and so Johnson’s answer amounted to a “So what, we’re still popular”. According to this must-read Tortoise article by Matthew d’Ancona, on the No 10 culture wars, “after Labour’s trouncing in last month’s local elections and the Hartlepool by-election, ... party chiefs are aiming for – as they put it – a ‘Blair-scale’ majority of at least 120 [at the next election].”

Two other points are worth mentioning. The Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, seems to be getting increasingly irritated by Johnson by the week. And Starmer, uncharacteristically, chose to go Jeremy Corbyn in his final question and ask about Palestine. Patrick Maguire from the Times is probably right when he explains why here.

Updated

UK-EU talks end with no breakthroughs, but not breakdowns either, says Frost

Lord Frost, the Brexit minister, has issued this statement following his talks this morning with the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol. He said:

The problem we’ve got is the protocol is being implemented in a way which is causing disruption in Northern Ireland and we had some pretty frank and honest discussions about that situation today ...

There weren’t any breakthroughs. There aren’t any breakdowns either and we’re going to carry on talking.

What we really now need to do is very urgently find some solutions which support the Belfast Good Friday agreement, support the peace process in Northern Ireland and allow things to return to normal.

Maroš Šefčovič, Frost’s EU counterpart, is due to give his own assessment at a press conference starting at 1pm.

Updated

Jacob Young (Con) asks about investment in Redcar. Will the PM visit it to see its plans for levelling up?

Johnson says Young is a fantastic advocate for the town. He says when he can he will visit the town for a lemon top.

And that’s it. PMQs is over.

Emma Lewell-Buck (Lab) says her local hospital if facing cuts. Will the PM intervene to help?

Johnson says the changes referred to be Lewell-Buck are being consulted on. He says the plans are about improving services, not downgrading anything.

Claire Coutinho (Con) asks if the PM will consider the powers available to the traffic commissioner to consider the impact of HGV lorries.

Johnson says he will look at this.

Jonathan Edwards (Plaid Cymru) says Brexit has been a tale of betrayals. Will the steel industry be next to be betrayed?

Johnson says no. He says Brexit offers opportunities for Welsh farmers to export. They will be able to do brilliantly, he says.

Ian Lavery (Lab) says the north-east of England has suffered particularly badly in terms of lost learning for pupils. The government’s catch-up plans are “derisory”, he says. Parents are listening; will the PM use his privileged education background to explain how 20p a day helps kids catch up?

Johnson says Lavery is wrong; the sums are huge, he says. He repeats the point about the tuition programme being the biggest in the world.

Sir David Amess (Con) says the hurt felt by women who had to give up children for adoption in the 50s, 60s and 70s is still felt today. Does the PM agree they deserve an apology?

Johnson agrees. He says the practices that led to forced adoption cannot now occur. He says the agencies involved in forced adoption in the past “have apologise for their role, and quite right too”.

Updated

Theresa May, the former Conservative PM, asks if the PM will urgently consider the implications of the collapse of the latest Hillsborough prosecution and if he will consider if the law needs to be changed?

Johnson says the government will look at this case and consider opportunities to change the law.

Andrew Gwynne (Lab) says the PM has seen his ministerial standards adviser resign, his top legal adviser resign, and his education recovery adviser resign. Why does this keep happening?

Johnson says he is grateful to everyone who has worked for him.

David Jones (Con) says Lord Frost is doing a superb job. Does the PM agree that the Northern Ireland protocol is unsustainable as currently applied? Should the EU adopt a more pragmatic approach?

Johnson says he agrees completely. He says Frost is the greatest Frost since the Great Frost of 1709.

Brendan Clarke-Smith (Con) asks when councils can take back control over trespassing.

Johnson says the police, crime, sentencing and courts bill contains measures to address this. He says Labour voted against it.

Barry Sheerman (Lab) asks when levelling up will start. He says the PM has led a life of privilege. How will the government know it is succeeding? When will we see the evidence of this?

Johnson says the government has a £640bn investment programme that, bit by bit, will transform people’s opportunity. He says his government believes talent is fairly distributed, but not opportunity. That is the difference with Labour, he claims.

Colum Eastwood, the SDLP leader, asks why the PM is prioritising a deal that will benefit Australian farmers instead of agreeing to align food standards with the EU’s, which would help trade with Northern Ireland.

Johnson says he wants to protect the economic and territorial integrity of the UK.

Scott Benton (Con) asks the PM to ensure there is a wider plan to ensure no child loses out as a result of the pandemic.

Johnson says the tutoring plan is evidence-based. And the government may increase time spend in schools. He says Labour should use their influence with teaching unions to get teachers to agree.

Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, says the PM will be the only leader at the G7 summit cutting aid to the poorest. He says the PM has been hiding on this issue for months. This is an government on the run, he says. Will the PM commit to a vote on the aid cuts, as demanded by the Speaker? Yes or no?

Johnson says we are in very, very difficult financial times. He says Blackford should not believe “lefty propaganda”. The UK is spending £10bn on aid, he says. And £500m is being spent on girls’ education.

Blackford says he has never heard Theresa May (who opposes the aid cuts) described as a leftist propagandist. He says now is the time to support one another. The PM is slashing £4.5bn from the world’s poorest.

Johnson says that question was disgraceful. He says the government has contributed £1.6bn to the Gavi vaccination programme. And he repeats the point about one in three vaccines being AZ ones.

Felicity Buchan (Con) asks if the government will build back better in a way that works for the whole country. Johnson says he will.

Starmer says this would be more convincing if the UK was not cutting its aid budget.

He asks about the Middle East peace process. It is urgent to restart it, he says. A Palestinian state seems more distant than ever. Will the PM push for a settlement, and for the end to illegal settlements?

Johnson says it is common ground in the Commons that the solution is a two-state outcome. He says he has made that clear.

He says Starmer is wrong to accuse the government of not being ambitious in international aid. The government is spending more than Labour ever did, he says. He says the British people know that that is the right priority for this country. And if Labour want a vote, the people had a vote on this last month. And they voted firmly in favour of the government.

Starmer says Johnson cannot claim to be on the side of deprived kids if he does not support the Collins plan. “Come off it.”

Turning to the G7, he says the UK must lead, and not just host. There must be a clear plan to vaccinate the world. Will the PM take the lead and do whatever is necessary to make global vaccinations a reality?

Yes, says Johnson.

He says the UK was one of the first countries to authorise the AstraZeneca vaccine. And one in three vaccine doses distributed around the world are AZ. That is global Britain in action.

Starmer says Johnson was told if he did not back the Collins plan, the attainment gap would increase by between 10% and 24%. He asks which parts of the Labour plan the PM objects to.

Johnson tells the Speaker he is entitled to draw attention to what Labour said at the last election.

He says if Labour is now supporting his plan, that is a good thing.

Starmer says this is a false economy. If the government does not change course, it will hold Britain back for a generation. Will the government back the Labour motion on this being put to a vote later?

Johnson says Labour opposed academies and higher standards. Labour even wanted to get rid of Ofsted at the last election, he says. He claims his reforms are serious and based on evidence.

Sir Lindsay Hoyle says this is PMQs, and not about the agenda at the last election.

Starmer says Collins came up with a plan, but the Treasury only offered one tenth of what was needed. “So much for levelling up.” The funding is about £50 per child per year. Even with all the funding, for England it is only worth £310 over four years. But in the US they are spending £1,600 per pupil, and in the Netherlands £2,500 per pupil.

Johnson says this is £3bn just for starters. And it includes the biggest programme of one-to-one tutorials anywhere in the world. He says private school children are getting personal tuition. He says he wants other children to benefit too.

Updated

Sir Keir Starmer starts by offering the PM “warm congratulations” on his marriage.

He asks why the PM thinks Sir Kevan Collins, his former education recovery adviser, described the government’s plan for catch-up learning as half-hearted and inadequate.

Johnson says this will be the biggest tutoring programme in the world, based on the best evidence Collins could supply.

Ben Bradley (Con) asks for a meeting with the PM to discuss options for the east Midlands.

Johnson says Bradley already has a ministerial meeting lined up.

Updated

Gavin Newlands (SNP) asks what the government is doing to stop “fire and rehire” policies. The government is not protecting workers, he says.

Johnson says the government has been clear that using threats of firing and rehiring as a negotiating tactic is unacceptable. It can only be used in limited circumstances, such as to reduce job losses, he says.

Boris Johnson starts by saying he is delighted to be hosting the G7 summit this week. It is the first (in person) meeting of G7 leaders since the pandemic started, he says.

Updated

Gavin Barwell, Theresa May’s former chief of staff, has responded to what Patrick O’Flynn said earlier about his criticism of the government’s stance on the Northern Ireland protocol. (See 10.30am.)

PMQs

PMQs is about to start.

Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

Boris Johnson leaving 10 Downing Street a few minutes ago ahead of PMQs.
Boris Johnson leaving 10 Downing Street on his way to the Commons for PMQs. Photograph: Dominic Lipinski/PA

Priti Patel, the home secretary, has been addressing the Police Federation conference. She started her speech by telling officers that she saw her role as being their advocate in government. She said:

Nothing gives me greater pride than the work that I’ve been able to do with men and women in policing who do an extraordinary job under increasingly extraordinary circumstances. And nothing has a stronger effect on me than talking to the families of police officers who’ve been killed in the line of duty.

John [Apter, the Police Federation chair] and I have a shared duty, being an advocate for police, and I’m your political advocate in Westminster. It’s my job to make sure that you have what you need to do your job.

Priti Patel addressing the Police Federation conference
Priti Patel addressing the Police Federation conference. Photograph: Sky News

Updated

Loyalists in Northern Ireland view Brexit’s Irish Sea trade border as a manifestation of attacks on their British identity, MPs have been told. As PA Media reports, Billy Hutchinson, the Progressive Unionist party (PUP) leader, told a Westminster committee the only way to resolve issues around the Northern Ireland protocol was through political means. PA says:

However, Hutchinson warned that loyalist leaders had a “very difficult” job convincing some people within their community that protests should remain peaceful, claiming the reason the trade border was not placed on the Irish land border was due to the threat of republican violence.

The PUP has a long-established link with the loyalist paramilitary organisation the Ulster Volunteer Force.

Hutchinson, a Belfast city councillor, told the Northern Ireland affairs committee that the European single market represented the biggest threat to his British identity.

“People are angry, people misunderstood how Brexit was going to play out and people didn’t realise that Brexit would have a bigger impact in Northern Ireland than it would have in the rest of the UK,” he said.

“So the protocol is a manifestation of people attacking their Britishness or taking something away.”

Updated

Here is my colleague David Conn’s story on the high court ruling on the award of the contract to Public First being illegal.

Vaccine hesitancy in England three times higher in poorest areas than in richest areas, ONS says

Adults living in the most deprived areas of England are three times more likely to be hesitant about getting a coronavirus vaccine than those in the least deprived parts, PA Media reports. PA says:

One in 10 people in the most deprived parts reported vaccine hesitancy between 28 April and 23 May, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This compares with 3% of those in the least deprived areas.

Overall, hesitancy levels in Britain are slightly down from the previous month, the survey of 15,173 adults aged 16 years and over found.

Some 94% of adults in Britain reported positive sentiment, while 6% reported hesitancy, compared with 93% and 7% respectively between 31 March and 25 April.

One in eight (13%) of those aged 16-29 reported hesitancy - the highest proportion of all the age groups and unchanged from the previous month.

Black or black British adults were the ethnic group reporting the highest level of vaccine hesitancy, at 21%.

Court rules Cabinet Office award of contract to firm with Tory links without competition was unlawful

Jolyon Maugham, head of the Good Law Project, says the high court has ruled that the Cabinet Office’s decision to award a public opinion research contract worth £560,000 to a company with Tory links without putting it out to tender was unlawful.

The Good Law Project has written up the ruling here. And the 43-page judgment is here (pdf).

And here is the conclusion from Mrs Justice O’Farrell.

For the reasons set out above, the claimant’s challenge to the defendant’s decision to award a contract to Public First and the award of the contract fails on grounds 1 and 2 but succeeds on ground 3.

The claimant is entitled to a declaration that the decision of 5 June 2020 to award the contract to Public First gave rise to apparent bias and was unlawful.

Following hand down of this judgment, the hearing will be adjourned to a date to be fixed for the purpose of any consequential matters, including any applications for permission to appeal, and any time limits are extended until such hearing or further order.


Updated

Boris Johnson has thanked police officers for their work during the pandemic in a surprise video address to the Police Federation conference this morning. Delivering what he said was a “huge thank you”, he said:

You’ve encouraged people to stick to the rules the same time as you’ve been fighting crime and you’ve each risen to an enormous challenge.

Just as I could never have imagined being forced, as prime minister, to close pubs and bars and restaurants or tell people how many households could get together, I bet that policing restrictions in that way was not something you ever dreamt you would be doing.

But you did it because you knew it was how we were going to protect the NHS and save lives.

Johnson also said that the government had recruited 8,771 new officers and that it was 44% of the way towards the target of 20,000 extra officers by 2023.

Arlene Foster, the outgoing DUP first minister of Northern Ireland, does not seem to agree with Gavin Barwell’s analysis of who is to blame for the problems with the Northern Ireland protocol. (See 8.48am.) She has posted this response to a tweet from the former Ukip MEP Patrick O’Flynn.

More than 80% of adults in England and Wales would test positive for Covid antibodies, ONS says

More than 80% of adults in England and Wales would test positive for Covid antibodies, according to figures released by the Office for National Statistics this morning. The figures are lower for Northern Ireland (79.9%) and for Scotland (72.6%).

Having antibodies can protect people from further infection. People acquire antibodies either through vaccination, or from being infected in the past. But antibody levels do not correspond to the total number of people vaccinated and infected in the past because over time antibody levels reduce to the point where they are no longer detected in tests.

Here are the figures for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. They cover the week beginning Monday 17 May, and they are based on the results of a survey that involves tens of thousands of people being tested at random.

Estimated levels for % of adults with Covid antibodies
Estimated levels for % of adults with Covid antibodies Photograph: ONS

And these charts compare the proportion of adults testing positive for antibodies (the dark blue line) with the proportion who have had one dose of vaccine (the green line) and the proportion fully vaccinated (the light green line).

% of adults testing positive for Covid antibodies, compared with vaccination rates
% of adults testing positive for Covid antibodies, compared with vaccination rates. Photograph: ONS

Updated

Lord Frost and his EU counterpart Maroš Šefčovič, vice-president of the European Commission, have started their talks at Admiralty House in London. Although it essentially one event, technically there are two meetings taking place: a meeting of the withdrawal agreement joint committee meeting (the body set up to oversee the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, including the Northern Ireland protocol); and a meeting of the partnership council (the body set up to oversee the implementation of the UK-EU trade deal, the trade and cooperation agreement). Frost and Šefčovič jointly chair both bodies.

Here is the agenda (pdf) for the withdrawal agreement joint committee meeting. And here is the agenda (pdf) for the partnership council meeting.

Maros Sefcovic (left) and Lord Frost (right) at the meeting of the partnership council and the withdrawal agreement joint committee at Admiralty House this morning. Frost is sitting alongside Penny Mordaunt, the Cabinet Office minister.
Maroš Šefčovič (left) and Lord Frost (right) at the meeting of the partnership council and the withdrawal agreement joint committee at Admiralty House this morning. Frost is sitting alongside Penny Mordaunt, the Cabinet Office minister. Photograph: Eddie Mulholland/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

In a statement issued last night, ahead of his meeting this morning with Maroš Šefčovič, Lord Frost, the Brexit minister, urged the EU to adopt “pragmatism” and “common sense solutions” to resolve the problems in Northern Ireland. He said:

I hope this will be a productive forum where we can address shared challenges by working together in the spirit of mutual trust and cooperation.

First among these challenges is the damaging impact the protocol is having on the ground in Northern Ireland. Businesses in Great Britain are choosing not to sell their goods into Northern Ireland because of burdensome paperwork, medicine manufacturers are threatening to cut vital supplies, and chilled meats from British farmers destined for the Northern Ireland market are at risk of being banned entirely ...

Our overriding shared priority must be to protect the Belfast (Good Friday) agreement and the peace process. I look to the EU to show flexibility and engage with our proposals so that we can find solutions that enjoy the confidence of all communities.

Further threats of legal action and trade retaliation from the EU won’t make life any easier for the shopper in Strabane who can’t buy their favourite product. Nor will it benefit the small business in Ballymena struggling to source produce from their supplier in Birmingham.

What is needed is pragmatism and common sense solutions to resolve the issues as they are before us. This work is important. And it is ever more urgent.

David Frost.
David Frost. Photograph: Matt Dunham/AP

Updated

Senior Tory accuses No 10 of falsely claiming it did not realise damage of Brexit in Northern Ireland

Good morning. Lord Frost, the Brexit minister, is holding talks this morning with his EU counterpart, Maroš Šefčovič, in an attempt to resolve the increasingly acrimonious dispute about the post-Brexit rules in place governing trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. These involve checks on some goods, and potentially some restrictions (including later this year on sausages and other chilled meats) to protect the EU single market, which includes Northern Ireland. The UK agreed to all these rules when it signed the Northern Ireland protocol. But now it is arguing that there is a need for a rethink because: a) the EU is being too “purist” in enforcing these rules; and b) the UK did not fully realise what the protocol would involve.

Frost made this latter argument in an article for the Financial Times (paywall) at the weekend. He wrote:

We expected to be able to operate it in a way which respected the sensitive politics in Northern Ireland — after all that was the point of making special arrangements in the first place ...

We underestimated the effect of the protocol on goods movements to Northern Ireland, with some suppliers in Great Britain simply not sending their products because of the time-consuming paperwork required.

This morning Gavin Barwell, who as Theresa May’s chief of staff was fully involved in the Brexit talks until the summer of 2019, said it was just not plausible for Boris Johnson to claim that he did not know what he was signing up to. Barwell told the Today programme:

I don’t think the EU is ever going to think that is credible. The EU negotiating team have obviously worked very closely with the British negotiating team under both governments. They know the quality of the civil servants involved in that work, and they know that British ministers would have been have been advised in detail on the implications of what they were signing up to.

So I don’t think anyone who’s involved in the process is going to find it credible that the government signed up to something and didn’t understand what the consequences of that were.

Asked if he thought that the government was now only pretending that it did not realise how damaging the protocol would be when it signed it in 2019, Barwell said:

It’s difficult to conceive of any other explanation. When I was working with Theresa [May], Boris Johnson was foreign secretary for a period of that time. He perfectly well understood what the previous iteration of the protocol meant in terms of regulatory checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

When the deal was published and the government brought its legislation forward, the explanatory memorandum for the bill, which explained what the bill meant, was very clear what the consequences would be.

And I think he and David Frost are intelligent people. I find it inconceivable that they didn’t understand what they were signing up to. They would have been advised very clearly by the civil service about that.

And I think it’s also important to consider the political context at the time. When Boris took over, he initially tried to prorogue parliament and leave without a deal. He wasn’t able to do that. So he then decided that he wanted to call an election to strengthen his position and it was clearly easier to fight that an election within an “oven-ready” Brexit deal.

So I think the calculation was sign up to whatever is on offer, and then see if we can deal with anything we don’t like down the line. I think the EU have come to the same conclusion as me and that’s why they’re taking the approach that they are now.

Barwell was expanding in his interview on a claim he made on Twitter on Monday. Yesterday Downing Street said Barwell’s analysis was wrong.

Here is the agenda for the day.

Morning: Lord Frost, the Brexit minister, and Maroš Šefčovič, his EU counterpart, co-chair a meeting of the partnership council and the withdrawal agreement joint committee, which will mostly focus on the Northern Ireland protocol.

9.30am: The ONS publishes new figures on vaccine hesitancy, and on antibody levels in the UK.

11.15am: Priti Patel, the home secretary, gives a speech to the Police Federation.

12pm: Boris Johnson faces Sir Keir Starmer at PMQs.

12.30pm: Šefčovič holds a press briefing after his meeting with Frost.

After 12.30pm: MPs begin a debate on a Labour motion criticising the government’s plans to help pupils make up for the learning lost during the pandemic. It says “the current half-hearted approach risks failing hundreds of thousands of young people” and calls for a more ambitious plan.

1.30pm: Downing Street is expected to hold its daily lobby briefing.

Afternoon: Johnson travels to Cornwall, where he will be hosting the G7 summit later this week.

Politics Live has been a mix of Covid and non-Covid news recently, and that is likely to be the case today. For more Covid coverage, do read our global live blog.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Alternatively, you can email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com.

Gavin Barwell.
Gavin Barwell. Photograph: Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

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