I'm looking over the roll calls of some votes on various amendments to the stimulus bill the Senate has made in recent days to see if there are any clues about how the big cloture vote (to cut off debate and force a final vote on passage) might go down. Cutting off debate requires 60 votes, which is why 60 is the magic number.
The Senate voted on 12 stimulus-related amendments Tuesday and Wednesday. Nine were offered by Republicans and three by Democrats. Let's break the major ones down. (Suddenly, the Senate Web page listing votes has quit working on me. You see all the roll-call votes below by going to the above link and clicking on the amendment in question.)
On the Democratic side, the only one of the three that might provide an augury of things to come was a bill from Patty Murray of Washington seeking to add more infrastructure investments. It got 58 yeas to 39 nays, but it came to the floor under a rule requiring a 3/5's majority so it failed. One Republican voted for it, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania (he's up for reelection in his blue state, with vast infrastructure needs, in 2010).
Among the Republican amendments, three votes stand out to me. John Cornyn of Texas filed an amendment to reduces taxes on all working taxpayers (i.e., even those making millions of dollars). It failed 60-37. Republicans voting against: Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine, and George Voinovich of Ohio (retiring, seat up in 2010).
John Thune of South Dakota had an amendment to ensure that the stimulus bill would not add any new government programs. This lost by 35-62. Republicans voting against: Collins, Snowe, Specter, Dick Lugar of Indiana and Mel Martinez of Florida.
John McCain introduced an amendment whose language is pretty technical but whose intent is to introduce into the stimulus process a reminder to everyone that controlling the deficit should remain a long-term priority. This failed 44-53, but as you can tell from the total, the Republicans held firm here and three Democrats voted with McCain: Ben Nelson of Nebraska, emerging as a key negotiator, Evan Bayh of Indiana and Obama's pal Claire McCaskill of Missouri.
Something resembling a pattern emerges here. Snowe and Collins seem likeliest to break from the GOP pack on cloture, if they get some of what they want. Specter, Lugar and Voinovich are the other plausible candidates. I guess we knew this, but I find it fascinating to look at the specifics to see the kinds of strategies the conservatives are trying to pursue, and where the moderates seem willing to peel away.
