WASHINGTON _ Democrats spent months plotting how they could take back the Senate: Win Pennsylvania, steal an unexpected victory in Missouri and up the score in blue states like New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Illinois.
All of their paths to a majority _ every one of them _ was built on the idea that Hillary Clinton would comfortably win the presidential race. As it turns out, that was a fatal flaw.
The almost unfathomable strength of Donald Trump in Tuesday's election has given Senate Republican candidates a boost they didn't expect but have happily embraced. It's not only led them to keep a majority many top GOP officials considered in serious jeopardy, but win races they had long since considered lost.
Instead of losing their majority, the GOP is on track to hold their majority _ and possibly lose just one seat.
"Trump's message resonated very deeply with a huge population of working-class voters and their desire for change lifted Republicans across the map on Election Day," said John Asbhrook, a Senate GOP strategist.
The pro-Trump surge is evident in Indiana, where GOP Rep. Todd Young dispatched former Sen. Evan Bayh thanks to a surge in Republican turnout. (With 94 percent of precincts reporting, Young led by roughly 10 points.)
It was evident in North Carolina, where both parties expected a very tight race only to see Sen. Richard Burr win relative ease. (The GOP incumbent was up seven points with 98 percent of returns counted.)
And it was most evident in the night's most shocking Senate result, in Wisconsin, where Republican Sen. Ron Johnson crushed former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold.
A Johnson victory was unthinkable as recently as a month ago, when most Democratic and Republican officials had all but written the race off. Democrats, in fact, considered the race a sure victory since last year, when polls in the state showed Feingold winning by more than 10 points.
Polls showed it tightening late, and outside groups from both parties poured money into the state in the race's final weeks. Even then, Republicans expressed doubt he could come out on top because of the state's partisan lean and the headwinds faced in the presidential race.
"Obviously, Trump exceeded expectations every bit as much as Hillary Clinton fell short of both expectations and Obama's 2012 results," said Doug Heye, a Republican strategist.
As of early Wednesday morning, Democrats still had a chance to win a few races, including those in New Hampshire, Missouri and Pennsylvania.
The discrepancy between Trump's expected performance and what actually happened was perhaps most evident in the number of seats Democrats thought they needed to win: 50. Though not a majority, the assumption among party strategists was that Vice President Tim Kaine could cast a tie-breaking vote in favor of Democrats.
That won't be the case if Trump wins, Mike Pence is the vice president, and the GOP can cast the tie-breaking vote.
