Self-driving cars have been discussed for years, but now that the government is drafting legislation for their arrival on British roads, conversation is moving away from if, to when and what the impact might be.
Today’s cars already feature many driver-assistance features, ranging from cruise control and lane control to temporary self-steering. Within perhaps a decade, approval could be given for cars that are completely autonomous and take passengers from A to B while they Skype the office or write a sales report.
Nick Reed, academy director of the Transport Research Laboratory believes self-driving cars will not only have the potential to be far safer than today’s vehicles, they will greatly reduce the need to own a car. While many cars will likely be made available through taxi-like rental services, those which do belong to a company or individual will be able to multitask for them throughout the day.
“You can easily foresee someone being taken in to work by their car which then goes off on its own to pick someone else up to bring them in, or maybe drop the kids at school,” he says. “People could also be driven to a meeting and then the car might know it has two or three hours until they’re finished. In that time it could take someone else from the office to another meeting or perhaps carry out some deliveries around town until its owner needs picking up.”
The result could be fewer vehicles sitting idle throughout the working day, putting an end to the dreaded morning dash for spaces in overcrowded office car parks. Similarly, the high street and shopping malls could get a new lease of life as autonomous vehicles drop people at the shops but do not need to be parked nearby, freeing up car park space for additional shops or leisure facilities.
Interest is up but so is concern
With such potential, it will come as little surprise to hear that Sophus 3, a company that has been analysing public attitudes to autonomous vehicles, has seen a spike in interest in the technology. Managing director, Scott Gairns, reveals web traffic to the parts of manufacturers’ sites which talk about autonomous technology nearly doubled during 2016, up 86%. Interestingly, two in three people checking out automated car information are already electric car owners. Nevertheless, nearly nine in 10 people admit that they are not yet ready to entrust their family’s safety to automated technology.
“People are going to get used to the prospect of self-driving cars as they become accustomed to driver assistance features, such as lane control, which are becoming more common in the latest cars,” he said.
“Ultimately they will be accepted as being safer and more environmentally friendly than today’s human-driven petrol and diesel cars. You can easily see how the technology could allow lots of cars to drive as part of a ‘road platoon’ where their systems keep them all close and travelling at the same speed, greatly increasing road capacity. Acceptance will take time, though.”
For the next decade or so we are likely to be in what Gairns calls a “grey zone” where cars become increasingly automated but drivers are expected to be ready to take back control at a moment’s notice.
Software’s ethical conundrum
Nick Rogers, head of motor, BLM, a legal firm which specialises in insurance risk, agrees. He estimates it will still be a decade or longer until the necessary United Nations global rules on cars are relaxed to allow fully autonomous steering and braking, even though the Vehicle Technology and Aviation Bill is being prepared in the current session of parliament, and is earmarked to be approved in the next. The problem is mainly one of ethics, rather than technology.
“There are a lot of issues to get over, including what’s often referred to as the ‘trolley bus’ conundrum,” he says.
“A person will never be blamed for causing harm if they swerve out of the way of an oncoming obstacle, even if they end up in the worst case scenario: ploughing into a queue of people waiting for a bus. However, when these decisions can be made rationally in micro-seconds, cars will have to decide whether it’s best to hit the obstacle or the queue of people. Who’s protection should be prioritised. A kid who’s run after their ball into the street, the bus queue or you inside the car? It’s a fascinating problem.”
Despite what many have written about self-driving cars, he does not foresee too many issues around what happens when two are involved in an accident. The bill being debated in parliament makes self-driving cars responsible for accidents, rather than their occupiers. This could lead, he predicts, to car makers offering an all-round motoring service which will handle any issues over defects and accidents so long as motorists play their part by keeping their car’s software constantly updated.
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