For months he kept the world guessing but now, having sent Russian tanks rolling across Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is losing his biggest asset – control.
Now he faces so many variables, risking troop deaths, partial or total failure, and a long and economically crippling war.
So why has the Russian leader made such an apparently insane move, which ultimately must fail if Europe is to avoid teetering towards a Third World War?
What does Putin want, annexation of Donbas or all of Ukraine?
He likely wants to control or cripple Ukraine, to create a huge buffer between Russia and NATO – and that means he will have to subjugate the capital Kyiv.
Putin is obsessed with returning Russia to its former Soviet glory, or something resembling it.
Ukraine’s increasingly European-leaning democracy offends his need for Russia to be surrounded by client states, controlled areas that put a distance between Russia and western democracy.
The contested areas of Donetsk and Luhansk are a small but significant prize in the offing, and if his troops take the areas it could go down well at home.
But the Russian war machine is unlikely to stop when they fall.
Why has Putin invaded now?
He claims Ukraine must be “de-Nazified”, a ludicrous reference to fringe groups of armed right-wing extremists in eastern Ukraine.
This has fed into paranoia in the area about Nazis existing in Kyiv, spurred on by his GRU spy agency controlling the media in the region and spreading lies.
Putin has seen Ukraine leaning ever-closer to Europe and may believe now is the time to stop this before it is too late.
Are other countries at risk?
Moscow’s “hybrid warfare”, a mix of military and sub-threshold aggression that falls below an act of war – such as cyber attacks, election interference, misinformation, espionage, technical and scientific theft – means the West is already in a “grey zone” war with Russia.
The Kremlin occasionally goes overt with an assassination on foreign soil, again debatably an act of war but just falling short of requiring retaliatory action.
What can the West do?
NATO has been piling weaponry into Ukraine to help fight Putin’s tanks, such as the NLAW anti-tank weapons sent by the UK. This will turn Ukraine into a proxy war between Russia and NATO.
Sanctions will hit Moscow economically but Putin will only respond to strength, and it is too late to put boots on the ground.
NATO countries will boost their defence budgets and try to price Moscow out of the coming arms war.
Could the West have done more to prevent the invasion?
Putin watched carefully as we cut back on troops and warships and concentrated efforts on counter-terrorism, largely ignoring the Russia threat and that from China.
Some have argued UK troops in Ukraine may have deterred Putin as he would not want to take on another nuclear power. Although hawkish, it is possible this would have stopped Putin.
Will the UK be dragged into war?
Britain has said its troops will not deploy to Ukraine as it is not a NATO partner. But Putin is committed to war in Ukraine and cannot be backed down.
If Russian troops take Kyiv and western Ukraine, they will be neighbouring Poland, a NATO member, and it would possibly be at risk.
What are Russia’s invasion tactics? Why are civilians being hit?
Civilians are always the real victims of war and no precision weaponry can prevent civilian deaths during conflict.
While Russia may not be directing its aim at civilians deliberately, its military is not exactly dedicated to preventing civilian deaths and has a bad reputation for collateral damage.
If these deaths are not reported back in Russia – and they won’t be – they will not matter to Putin. He only cares about how things are seen back home.
Why is Putin obsessed with NATO?
He hates anything that stands in his way. NATO is a defensive alliance to protect the sovereignty of its members.
He sees it as a US-controlled organisation that has marginalised Russia – though NATO stresses it has made repeated overtures to Moscow.
What do Russians think of all this?
Many in eastern Ukraine feel both Russian and Ukrainian. One Russian woman living in Donbas told me that when she visits family in Russia she has to keep her criticism of Putin to herself.
A Russian-born officer in the Ukrainian army told me his relatives back home would ask about the “awful oppressive situation in Ukraine”.
He told them there was no awful situation, that it was a lie spread by the Kremlin, but they would not accept it.
Is this an all-out invasion or does Putin even now have options?
It seems extremely remote but it is still possible that Putin could withdraw, having made his point, and keep the Donbas region – perhaps saying “job done, we’ve protected our people”.
But many say Russian troops will be at Kyiv by this morning and could encircle the city, bringing it to its knees.
It is possible Putin will realise this would be a mistake and Moscow’s troops could get bogged down in an even worse conflict with guerilla-style warfare attacks from Ukraine’s troops and citizen fighting units.
