Every NFL postseason has its share of surprise performers. Whether it’s Otto Graham in the Browns’ first year in the NFL schooling the 1950 Philadelphia Eagles in that year’s championship game, or L.C. Greenwood — perhaps the least-known member of the Steel Curtain front four — racking up four sacks against the Cowboys in Super Bowl X, or then-Bills backup quarterback and current Colts head coach Frank Reich authoring the biggest comeback in NFL history against the Houston Oilers in the 1992 wild-card round, or Washington running back Timmy Smith shocking the Broncos with 204 rushing yards in Super Bowl XXII, it’s just as likely that the most important postseason performance comes from a guy whose name you’re not familiar with just yet.
This postseason is no exception, and there are all kinds of potential stars you might not know who are mere hours away from their breakout performance. Here’s one potential secret superstar for each of the eight wild-card teams this weekend.
Buffalo Bills: WR John Brown
Bills general manager Brandon Beane has made more than his share of smart personnel decisions since he took the job in 2017, and one of the most astute has to be the March, 2019 signing of former Cardinals and Ravens receiver John Brown to a three-year, $27 million contract with $11.6 million guaranteed. All he’s done this season is set career highs in receptions (72) and receiving yards (1,060), while giving second-year quarterback Josh Allen quite the security blanket — especially on deep passes, where Brown has caught 10 of his 27 targets of 20 or more air yards for 332 yards and four touchdowns. No other Bills player has more than five deep receptions, and that’s tight end Dawson Knox.
There are all kinds of plays we should show to represent Brown’s importance to Buffalo’s passing game, but this 53-yard touchdown against the Patriots in Week 16 is the most compelling example.
Out of the right slot, Brown demolishes cornerback Stephon Gilmore on a nasty out-and-up for the only touchdown Gilmore’s given up all season, and then, he smokes safety Devin McCourty for good measure. No other NFL receiver can claim to have beaten both of these defenders on the same play in 2019; 2020 could be more of the same for the defenders trying to deal with Brown. Houston’s average to below-average cornerbacks could find him to be a particularly vexing test.
Houston Texans: WR Will Fuller V
DeAndre Hopkins is unquestionably Deshaun Watson’s best receiver, and perhaps the league’s best receiver, but to say that Houston’s passing game struggles to create explosive plays without Will Fuller V in the lineup is a radical understatement. Fuller has played in just 11 games this season and has been sidelined since Week 16 with a groin injury. Texans head coach Bill O’Brien said on Thursday that Fuller will be a game-time decision for Saturday’s wild-card game against the Bills, which means the team is doing everything it possibly can to get Fuller suited up for this one.
It’s easy to understand why. Not only does Fuller tied for the team lead with nine catches on passes of 20 air yards or more (Kenny Stills has him matched), Fuller is also a massive instigator in Houston’s deep passing game with his mere presence. Fuller’s downfield speed requires at least the attention of one deep safety, and makes things a lot easier for Watson. Per ESPN Stats & Info, the Texans have a QBR of 75.2 with Fuller, and 59.8 without him. The team’s overall yards per play drops from 6.08 to 5.29 without him, yards per attempt from 7.78 to 6.32, sacks per attempt go up from 7.8% to 10.7%, and third-down conversion rate flattens from 51.9% to 32.9%. When your ability to convert on third down drops a full 19% due to the absence of one guy, you definitely want that guy on the field — especially against Buffalo’s outstanding pass defense.
This 44-yard reception against the Colts in Week 12 was the big play in a day where Fuller scalded Indianapolis’ secondary for 140 yards on seven catches. One reason Houston’s offense is more successful when Fuller is on the field happens pre-snap — the Texans like to spread the defense out with wide formations, force single coverage across the board, and have Deshaun Watson throw the ball in Fuller’s general direction as Fuller is racing past whichever poor defensive back has the responsibility to keeping up with him. Here, defensive back Marvell Tell is Fuller’s huckleberry, and the Colts apparently aren’t riding with a overhead safety to that side.
Big mistake. That’s why Fuller ties up at least one deep safety on most plays, and it’s why the Texans need him out there against the Bills.
Tennessee Titans: S Kevin Byard
Those in the know probably wouldn’t consider Byard underrated — after all, if you crunch advanced metrics or watch tape, it’s clear that he’s one of the best safeties in the NFL. But how do you explain that the guy with more interceptions than any other player over the last three seasons — 17 to the 13 put up by Marcus Peters and Darius Slay — hasn’t made the Pro Bowl or an All-Pro team since 2017, the year he led the league in picks with eight? It’s not that Byard has been a one-year wonder, either. He had four picks in 2018, five more in 2019, and he’s responsible for locking down the deep third of Tennessee’s defense. No matter when schemes you’re running, that’s one of the toughest jobs in football.
Byard has done this estimably throughout his career. He’s allowed an opponent passer rating of 69.9 through his four-year career, and while he did allow an 83.9 passer rating in the 2019 season, he did so in a scheme that often required him to move around the field and nail down several different responsibilities. This deflection of a Philip Rivers pass to tight end Hunter Henry in Tennessee’s 23-20 Week 7 win over the Chargers is a perfect example, as Byard moves through the route in a way that would make any cornerback proud. Tom Brady will have to have his eyes on Byard every play.
New England Patriots: CB J.C. Jackson
Though there has been a late-season swoon against the Bills and Dolphins, New England’s pass defense was outstanding for most of the 2019 campaign, finishing first in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted metrics by a fairly crushing margin and leading the league in completions allowed (303), touchdowns allowed (13), interceptions (25), completion percentage allowed (56.53%), and opposing QBR.
While Stephon Gilmore has been the marquee cornerback in that secondary, he doesn’t have the most imposing numbers against enemy receivers. That would go to cornerback J.C. Jackson, who, per Pro Football Focus, leads the league in passer rating allowed among cornerbacks who have taken at least 20% of their defensive snaps. Jackson’s opponent passer rating of 37.0 means that any attempt in his area has the same likelihood of creating an efficient play as throwing the ball out of bounds. This season, he’s allowed 31 catches on 63 targets for 328 yards, 146 yards after the catch, just one touchdown, and five interceptions.
In New England’s 23-16 Week 14 loss to the Chiefs, Jackson gave an excellent tutorial in how to bait a great quarterback. Demarcus Robinson is running a crossing route, and watch how Jackson gets his landmark, makes Patrick Mahomes think there’s enough space for a tight-window throw, and converges at the last second for the pick.
Yes, Gilmore is the guy most likely to tie up the opponent’s top receiver, but given the volume and complexity of today’s passing offenses, there’s no such thing as a “second cornerback” anymore. You either have a quality secondary or you don’t, and in Jackson, the Patriots have the league’s best “1A” player at his position.
Minnesota Vikings: S Anthony Harris
To put it bluntly, Minnesota’s cornerbacks are the glaring weak link in Mike Zimmer’s defense. Starters Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes have been less than effective all season. Rhodes has allowed 59 completions on 70 targets for 707 yards and an opponent passer rating of 127.8. Waynes has allowed 61 completions on 84 targets for 653 yards, and an opponent passer rating of 109.9. Between them, Rhodes and Waynes have allowed nine touchdowns, and only Waynes has an interception. Without safeties Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris, this pass defense might have pushed the Vikings right out of the playoffs. Smith and Harris have allowed no touchdowns and have nine interceptions between them, and Harris is one of two defensive players this season (Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White is the other) with six interceptions and no touchdowns allowed in coverage.
An undrafted free agent out of Virginia, Harris has seen his snap counts and responsibilities increase every year from his rookie campaign in 2015. In 2019, he had 910 overall snaps and 580 coverage snaps, per Pro Football Focus, and you could count on one hand the times he was caught out of position. More often, he was busy making plays a lot of safeties couldn’t make. His interception of Philip Rivers in Week 15 is an ideal example.
At the snap, Harris appears to have his full attention on tight end Hunter Henry. But as he’s backpedaling, he’s also focused on the deep post receiver Mike Williams is running out of trips from the other side. With great speed, excellent anticipation, and perfect timing, Harris peels off and jumps the post for an impressive interception.
Against the Saints in the wild-card round, Harris and Smith will have to be more on point than ever — Drew Brees is coming off a torrid December in which he was named the NFC’s Offensive Player of the Month, and if Minnesota’s cornerbacks can’t play at a league-average level, their safeties will have all kinds of cleanup work against one of the NFL’s best passing offenses.
New Orleans Saints: DB Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
In every draft, there’s that one guy who inexplicably drops down the boards despite tape that shows him to be an NFL-caliber player right out of the box. When I watched Florida defensive back Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, I had him rated 35th overall in the 2019 draft class, and I thought he had the potential to improve a defense in several different spots. Like Malcolm Jenkins, who was selected by the Saints in the first round of the 2009 draft and excelled there before going on to help define the Eagles’ pass defense for a number of years,
If the Saints got their next Malcolm Jenkins, they did so for far less draft capital. Gardner-Johnson fell to the 105th overall pick in the fourth round, and he’s proven to be one of the steals of his class. Gardner-Johnson has played 547 snaps this season: 83 at the line, 103 as a box defender, 268 as a slot cornerback, 24 as an outside cornerback, and 69 as a free safety. Overall, he’s allowed 31 receptions on 48 targets for 198 yards, 48 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, one interception, and an opponent passer rating of 88.8.
But as a slot cornerback since Week 13, Gardner-Johnson has turned into an absolute nightmare for opposing quarterbacks and receivers. In that time, he’s allowed two catches on six targets for 18 yards, 14 yards after the catch, no touchdowns, one interception, and an opponent passer rating of 2.8. No, that is not a typo. Two-point-eight.
Gardener-Johnson is an impressive athlete, but it’s his awareness that stands out, especially for a rookie. On this interception of a Matt Ryan pass in Week 13, he starts off with tight coverage of receiver Justin Hardy from the left slot. Not satisfied to take Hardy away, Gardener-Johnson makes his presence known over the middle of the field on Ryan’s deeper throw to Russell Gage. When you run tight man coverage of any kind, it really helps to have a slot defender who can handle more than his first responsibility. Gardener-Johnson has that, and it’s made all the difference for a Saints slot position that is highly questionable outside of his efforts.
Seattle Seahawks: S Quandre Diggs
Going into the 2019 season, the Seahawks thought they could replace future Hall of Fame safety Earl Thomas with an aggregate of young players who had not yet aligned their athleticism to their field awareness. They were wrong. To their credit, head coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider went about correcting the problem by fleecing the Lions out of safety Quandre Diggs on October 22. All they had to give up to get Diggs was a 2020 fifth-round pick, and Detroit even threw in a 2021 seventh-rounder.
The difference in Seattle’s secondary was immediate. From Weeks 1-9, on posts, deep crossers, go routes, hitch-and-go routes, out-and-up routes — anything that would test a secondary deep — the Seahawks allowed five catches on six catchable targets for 144 yards, one touchdown, and one interception to the middle, right middle, and left middle of the field. But from Weeks 10-13, Seattle didn’t allow a single reception under those conditions. Neither Diggs nor safety-mate Bradley McDougald were targeted at all on such routes. In Week 14, Diggs was one of the few bright spots in a 28-12 Week 14 loss to the Rams, picking off two Jared Goff passes and returning one for a touchdown.
Having a safety who knows what’s going on is kind of important, as Diggs showed in his pick-six. Goff tries to hit Robert Woods on a crossing route from left to right, but Diggs has it read all the way, and screams down from the deep third to take the ball away for a 55-yard score.
But Diggs suffered a sprained ankle in Week 16 against the Panthers, and it didn’t take long for Seattle’s pass defense to fall apart again. Jimmy Garoppolo took advantage in a Week 17 loss to the 49ers that cost Seattle the division title. Diggs is on pace to return to the field on Sunday against the Eagles, which is very good news for a defense desperately in need of smart safety coverage — and desperately lacking same wherever Diggs isn’t in there.
Philadelphia Eagles: CB Sidney Jones
It’s always fun to watch game tape with smart cornerbacks. That was the case when I did so with Washington alum Sidney Jones, who the Eagles selected with the 43rd overall pick in the 2017 draft. Had he not suffered a torn Achilles tendon during the Huskies’ pro day on March 11 of that year, Jones would have unquestionably been a first-round pick. That injury cost him all but one game in his rookie season, and he missed six games in 2018 with various hamstring maladies. Hamstring issues persisted in 2019, though Jones recorded his first two NFL interceptions this season and started to become a relative force in a cornerback group with a real need for somebody to step up.
Jones has done that when healthy, allowing just four completions on 11 targets for 25 yards, no touchdowns, and one intercepotion in the second half of the season. His opponent passer rating allowed in that span? 7.0, the lowest in the NFL. And Jones was the point man on what may have been Philly’s most important opponent incompletion of the season — this Dak Prescott throw to Michael Gallup with 1:21 left in the Eagles’ 17-9 win over the Cowboys. This ended Dallas’ final drive on fourth-and-six, and it’s a great example of Jones’ practiced aggressiveness as a downfield and boundary cornerback.
Did Jones get away with one here? Should Dallas have had the ball at the Philadelphia one-yard line? It’s possible, though there was contact going back and forth, and Jones was playing the ball. And given referee Tony Corrente’s recent history regarding late-game reviews of potential pass interference calls… well, that wasn’t going to happen.
Jones was not on the defensive roster when the Seahawks beat the Eagles 17-9 in Week 10, but given his performance in another 17-9 game, it’s safe to say he’ll see a lot more action this time around.
