Why hello there…. Do you remember me, your handy, dandy SEC football picking guide from 2018?
Well, you’re in luck. I’m back.
Just in case you’re new to this, each week, we’ll go through and provide a score prediction for every game involving an SEC team with a little bit of analysis.
Last year, we were right on 75% of our picks and could have done even better if we didn’t get a little too bold for our britches. You might remember the trouble Arkansas gave us on cupcake games at the start of the season and Florida’s string of slightly unexpected cross-division victories.
Well, we’ve had all offseason to prepare for another go at this and are determined to right the ship.
Week 1 of college football, here we go!
Let’s get to the picks.
Thursday night
Texas A&M vs. Texas State- 8:30 PM
There’s only one game involving an SEC team on Thursday night, so we’ll try our best to nail this one.
The Aggies are favored by 33.5 points entering tonight’s game and should have no trouble handing the Bobcats their first loss of the season. Texas A&M throttled Northwestern State 59-7 to open the season last year, giving us confidence Jimbo Fisher will take this game just as serious.
Though their final record may not show it due to a difficult schedule, this should be an improved Aggies team from 2018. Factor in that Texas State went 3-9 last season and this seems like a rather easy pick. We’ll go with a Texas A&M cover in this one.
Prediction: Texas A&M 52, Texas State 10
The Saturday afternoon appetizers
Kentucky vs. Toledo- 12:00 PM
There are no Friday night SEC openers, so it’s on to Saturday. First up, Kentucky-Toledo at noon.
In years past, we might even be willing to take the Rockets outright in a game like this, but Mark Stoops has turned the Wildcats into a winning team.
The spread lists the Wildcats as 11.5 point favorites, which seems pretty favorable in a game like this. Even without Benny Snell, we expect the ‘Cats to get it done pretty easily on Saturday.
Prediction: Kentucky 38, Toledo 17
Ole Miss @ Memphis- 12:00 PM
Remember in 2015 when this was a must-watch early afternoon matchup? The days of Hugh Freeze and Ole Miss beating Alabama are long gone, but it’s always fun to look back.
However, this is 2019 we are talking about and Memphis is the favorite on Saturday by 5.5 points. We’re not very confident in picking this matchup, but we’ll trust Vegas and take the Tigers by a touchdown at home in a shootout.
Prediction: Memphis 45, Ole Miss 38
Mississippi State vs. Louisiana Lafayette- 12:00 PM
Mississippi State is now in a post-Nick Fitzgerald era and with a relatively new head coach and defense.
Though the Bulldogs lost a lot of talent, they should still be good enough to beat the Ragin’ Cajuns, even in a neutral site game.
After a 56-10 victory for Mississippi State last year, we’re going to take our chances at a Louisiana Lafayette cover with the -19.5-point spread.
Prediction: Mississippi State 35, Louisiana Lafayette 17
Alabama vs. Duke- 3:30 PM
Look, Alabama is playing another marquee neutral site game in the heart of college football against…. Duke. Yeah….. we’re thinking whoever planned this one got the 2020 Final Four and the 2020 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl confused
Perhaps both teams should play a neutral-site game in basketball too to make things fair?
Alabama is a heavy favorite in this one at 33.5 points, despite rumored first-half suspensions for multiple offensive players and season-ending injuries to a handful of defenders.
Though we expect the Tide to pull away significantly in this game, we’re going to roll the dice and take the Blue Devils on the cover.
Prediction: Alabama 38, Duke 14
South Carolina vs. North Carolina
South Carolina may have lost Deebo Samuel, but it still returns a handful of talented players for 2019. However, the Gamecocks have a very difficult schedule that will likely prevent them from reaching Atlanta or a major bowl game.
While we don’t expect South Carolina to be a serious threat in conference play, it should be able to handle a North Carolina team that Mack Brown can’t fix overnight.
The Tar Heels will cover the spread in this one, but we’ll take the Gamecocks outright when it’s all said and done.
Prediction: South Carolina 24, North Carolina 21
Tennessee vs. Georgia State- 3:30 PM
Tennessee had a pair of quality wins last season over Auburn and Kentucky, but stumbled into the finish line by falling to Vanderbilt for the third-straight season.
The Volunteers should be an improved team in 2019 that makes a bowl game and a bit of noise in the SEC East, so this game is quite easy straight up.
Georgia State had had a bit of success in its first decade as a program, but the team took a nosedive last season, finishing with only two wins.
We expect Tennessee to jump on the Panthers early in this one and run away with the victory while covering the 26-point spread.
Prediction: Tennessee 41, Georgia State 13
Arkansas vs. Portland State- 4:00 PM
Well, well well…. if it isn’t ‘ole Arkansas… The Razorbacks gave us fits last season week in and week out, but we’re hoping to get back on track this year.
Just as a heads up, you should probably wait a couple weeks before deciding to listen to us on Arkansas picks.
Games involving FBS and FCS teams do not get lines placed on them, so we’ll just predict the score in this one.
We are going to put our faith in the Hogs to win this one at home, but don’t be surprised if we’re wrong.
Prediction: Arkansas 31, Portland State 14
The Saturday night slate
LSU vs. Georgia Southern
LSU plays host to former FCS Powerhouse Georgia Southern on Saturday in what could be a more intriguing matchup than you’d think.
The Eagles run a triple-option offense that is difficult to prepare for and have the potential to play spoiler, but usually when a team is caught off guard in the middle of the season.
Given the fact that LSU has had all offseason to plan for Georgia Southern, we don’t see an upset like Troy in 2017 happening, though this one will be closer than expected.
Prediction: LSU 42, Georgia Southern 24
Auburn vs. Oregon
One of the premier matchups on opening weekend, Auburn-Oregon is a game you won’t want to miss. Justin Hebert will be returning under center for the Ducks while Bo Nix gets his first ever Tigers start in front of the bright lights in Arlington.
Both teams are ranked in the top 20 and have pretty lofty goals for 2019, but we’ve gone back and forth regarding who will win this game.
Though the popular pick may be Auburn, especially after the Tigers’ win over Washington in Atlanta last season, we are going to take the Ducks.
Oregon finally gets its revenge for the 2010 National Championship, putting itself in prime position for a run at the PAC-12 North and a New Year’s 6 Bowl.
Prediction: Oregon 27, Auburn 20
Missouri @ Wyoming
Missouri’s offense will look a lot different this season without the gunslinging Drew Lock, but that doesn’t mean the Tigers aren’t talented.
We expect Missouri to be even better than last year with Clemson transfer Kelly Bryant under center of a more experienced team.
The Tigers have an easy schedule for the first half of the season, which includes a trip to Laramie. Wyoming this weekend.
We like Missouri as an 18-point favorite and expect them to be undefeated coming into Athens.
Prediction: Missouri 45, Wyoming 21
Georgia @ Vanderbilt
Sorry to keep you waiting, but we always save the best for last. Georgia is currently a -22.5-point favorite at the moment, but the line keeps moving in the Bulldogs’ direction.
However, the scoreline we are predicting on Saturday is far greater than the spread, meaning we encourage you to hop on this one, no matter the line.
Georgia got embarrassed in last year’s Allstate Sugar Bowl and you better believe Coach Smart has been reminding his players of it all offseason.
The Bulldogs will be looking to make a statement in this game that they are still right on the heels of Clemson and Alabama, which is why we love this spread.
Vanderbilt’s Big Three is very talented, but it won’t be enough to overcome the Georgia takeover on Saturday when it’s all said and done.
The Dawgs pull away in the final three quarters after a semi-competitive start to the game.
Prediction: Georgia 45, Vanderbilt 13
