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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Michelle R. Martinelli

SEC fans are going to love teams’ Week 1 College Football Playoff chances

It’s Week 1 of the 2019 college football season, and rest assured, for the next 14 weeks, we — like everyone else — are going to analyze and try to predict which four teams will make the College Football Playoff.

Last season, ESPN — which has the playoff and national championship game broadcasting rights through the 2025-26 season — tried to help make those predictions a little more scientific and introduced its Playoff Predictor. The network’s analytics utilizes an algorithm to evaluate the top teams’ chances to make the playoff and win a national championship.

As it explained last year, factors considered for determining each team’s playoff chance from week to week include strength of record, number of losses, conference championships, independent status (ahem, Notre Dame) and the Football Power Index (FPI) — how well a team is playing based on expectations. The selection committee’s past behavior will also be a contributing factor, like when a non-conference champ has made it or when a good two-loss team has been ignored.

Not surprising are the top two teams: Clemson and Alabama. They had the top-2 preseason odds to make the playoff — to the point where there are odds pitting them against the field — and players on their rosters are the top-2 Heisman Trophy favorites. But rounding out the top four right now are Michigan and Georgia, and that might raise a couple questions or enrage some fans.

So during Week 1, here are the top-15 teams with the best chances to make the 2019-20 College Football Playoff and win a national championship, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor.

1. Clemson Tigers

Playoff: 84 percent
Win championship: 37 percent

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

Playoff: 71 percent
Win championship: 27 percent

3. Michigan Wolverines

Playoff: 41 percent
Win championship: 7 percent

4. Georgia Bulldogs

Playoff: 40 percent
Win championship: 8 percent

(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
5. LSU Tigers

Playoff: 33 percent
Win championship: 7 percent

6. Oklahoma Sooners

Playoff: 30 percent
Win championship: 4 percent

7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Playoff: 28 percent
Win championship: 3 percent

8. Oregon Ducks

Playoff: 14 percent
Win championship: 1 percent

9. Florida Gators

Playoff: 9 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

10. Penn State Nittany Lions

Playoff: 9 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

11. Utah Utes

Playoff: 7 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

12. Auburn Tigers

Playoff: 7 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

13. Ohio State Buckeyes

Playoff: 5 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

14. Washington Huskies

Playoff: 5 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

15. Michigan State Spartans

Playoff: 5 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

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