With the runaway success of Lamar Jackson, many teams in need of a quarterback in the 2020 offseason will look hither and yon for the Next Lamar, with the knowledge that the Next Lamar doesn’t exist. Still, are there ways in which other NFL teams can come close to replicating what the Ravens and Jackson have done? Part 1 of our “Searching for Lamar” series takes a look at what’s going on in the Valley of the Sun, and why the Cardinals may already have their own answer.
Only three rookie quarterbacks have ever thrown for more than 3,000 yards and run for more than 500 yards in the same season. Cam Newton did it in 2011, Robert Griffin III did it in 2012, and Arizona’s Kyler Murray has done it in 2019. It took the first overall pick from Oklahoma just 14 games to achieve the feat, as Murray now stands with 3,279 passing yards and 504 rushing yards. Murray is also the only player to do it this season, though Lamar Jackson is 111 passing yards away from hitting the 3,000 mark, and he could pick that up in the first quarter this Sunday against Cleveland’s defense.
That notwithstanding, it goes a long way to showing how well Murray has played, and what he was up against when he came into the NFL. With a sub-par offensive line, a running back situation that has been in flux all season, and a receiver group with one constant in all-timer Larry Fitzgerald, Murray has made the NFL look easier than it is in a rookie season that easily could have gone the other way in a big hurry. We saw that with Josh Rosen in Arizona’s offense last season, as Mike McCoy (until he was fired) and Byron Leftwich (McCoy’s interim replacement) had little to offer Rosen in terms of effectiveness or adaptability.
First-year Cardinals head coach and offensive designer Kliff Kingsbury has gone about it differently. Through the first four weeks of the season, per Sharp Football Stats, the Cardinals ran “10” personnel on 59% of their plays. This was by far the highest rate in the league over that time; the Seahawks ranked second with 11% of their plays out of “10” personnel, and eight teams didn’t run a single play out of that personnel.
Murray wasn’t really helped by the packages, either — Arizona threw the ball on 76% of their plays, and Murray completed 69 of 108 passes for a 6.4 yards per attempt average, one touchdown, two interceptions, 13 sacks and a passer rating of 77.4.
“I think the biggest takeaway is there’s no kind of throwaway plays in the NFL,” Kingsbury said back in early October. “In college, you may have 85, 90 snaps. There’s a handful that are kind of throwaways and you look back at them and [say], ‘Hey, that’s all right that there were five plays that maybe we didn’t have the best call on and it didn’t work out.’
From Week 5 through Week 8, the Cardinals turned away from “10” personnel, running it just 23% of the time, while loading up on “11” personnel (one running back, one tight end, three receivers) on 45% of their snaps, and “12” personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two receivers) on 19%. Through the first four weeks of the season, Murray completed 62.7% of his passes overall for 1,071 yards, four touchdowns, four interceptions, 20 sacks and a passer rating of 78.8. From weeks 5-8, Murray completed 65% of his passes for 917 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, five sacks and a rating of 95.5.
And then, from weeks 9-11 (Arizona had a Week 12 bye), Murray really started to make things happen. Now used to more balanced personnel sets against NFL defenses, Murray completed 67.9% of his passes for 715 yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, nine sacks and a passer rating of 106.7. This time period included two close losses to the 49ers and their top-tier defense in which Murray not only became the only quarterback to post a passer rating over 100 against San Francisco, he did so twice.
The overall results from Week 4 through the bye were stunning.
The Cardinals have switched between “10” (33%) and “11” (34%) personnel from Weeks 13-15 pretty evenly, and Murray’s been the most successful with three receivers and a tight end, with 21 completions in 30 attempts with two touchdowns, mo interceptions, and an passer rating of 106.7. Regardless of the specific personnel switches, it’s remarkable that a first-year head coach and a first-year NFL quarterback would be so comfortable with all the changes. It’s especially remarkable after Kingsbury’s Air Raid past at Texas Tech, where “10” personnel and throwing the ball all over the place were the norms.
“A little bit of everything,” Kingsbury said this week, when I asked him about the paradigm shifts. “I think it started with comfort level with the quarterback. How we wanted to play where he could see things and clean up the picture of the defense. As we got rolling and started to figure out our personnel and what we could be and do, it just expanded. This is a learning experience. Like I said, for me calling plays at this level, using different personnel and having a young quarterback. There are a lot of different pieces that went into how we’ve evolved as an offense.”
The Seahawks, who beat Kingsbury’s and Murray’s Cardinals 27-10 in a Week 4 matchup that was the start of that offensive turnaround, are ready for a drastically different set of personnel ideas.
“They’re a little bit more 11 and 12 personnel,” linebacker Bobby Wagner said on Wednesday. “Earlier when we played them it was “10” personnel, so they did a lot of receivers. Murray has definitely got a little bit more confidence, running the ball a little bit more, figuring out a little bit more what he wants to do. The running back that they added is pretty good too, he’s definitely added a different dynamic to their team.
“They run a lot of different things in multiple personnel. But they always have one or two plays that you haven’t seen on film. You don’t know when they’re going to run it, or what it’s going to look like, but you have got to be prepared for it. If, you read your keys and do your job I think it’ll be fine. But they’re going to have that wrinkle, I feel like everybody has that wrinkle. It’s not anything that’s not abnormal, they just do tend to do a little bit more that other teams.”
In that regard, Arizona’s offense is quite a bit like Baltimore’s — they keep you off-script and make you think more than you’d like to, while reacting later than you’d prefer.
“Absolutely, yeah,” Seattle head coach Pete Carroll said, asked if the Cardinals present similar issues for opposing defenses with Murray as a runner. “They’re running it and they have a number of ways that they can run them. Not to mention their scrambles, but just in their running scheme. He’s involved in the QB read stuff and design plays for him, which is similar. It is similar. That is as difficult as football gets when the quarterback is a focused runner. That just adds so much more to the dimensions of their attack. They have stepped that up some and it looked really good this week in particular.”
Wagner, however, was quick to point out the differences between Baltimore’s multi-faceted run game, and what the Cardinals are doing.
“Lamar Jackson is a different style of runner. They’re doing ‘QB Power,’ and they’re pulling people with Lamar. With Murray they’re kind of just doing like a ‘Read Zone,’ or bringing extra tight ends to block. So, they’re not necessarily designed zones for Murray. It’s more like reading the defense and seeing what they’re giving you. With Lamar it’s like a ‘QB Power,’ he’s getting the ball and he’s following his blockers.”
Murray completed 22 of 32 passes for 241 yards, no touchdowns and an interception against the Seahawks — though the Cardinals were in a 20-3 third-quarter hole, short stuff was the order of the day. Both Kingsbury and Murray were still getting used to each other. But Wagner found it easy to remember Murray’s ability to run, especially the nine-yard fourth-quarter draw that represented Arizona’s only touchdown of the day.
“There was a QB draw in the red zone where I think he scored a touchdown,” Wagner recalled. “A ‘Tight End Slice.’ Which basically, the tight end falls back and he’s doing the same thing, it’s kind of like a read zone. It’s different forms of read zones. One was, the back was offset away from the tight end, and he was reading that end on the line of scrimmage. The other one was, they got everybody out the box, and then they did a QB draw.”
There was also this 15-yard run in which Murray evaded pressure, got 15 yards upfield, and made linebacker Mychal Kendricks (No. 56) look pretty silly in the process.
Plays like this make you think Murray has the potential to be the kind of running threat Jackson is, regardless of scheme differences. The Browns would probably say that Murray is ready to take that on after this 35-yard scamper in Arizona’s 38-24 Week 15 win. This appears to be an ideal iteration of the Kingsbury quarterback rushing oeuvre, in which backfield motion and spreading the defense wide with moving pre-snap receivers put the opponent in a very tough spot.
Of course, none of this would matter much if Murray wasn’t also a good passer with great potential. No problem there. Yes, he’s still adapting to the speed and complexity of the NFL, and yes, the Cardinals need to do more to put weapons around him, but you don’t complete 64.7% of your passes for 3,279 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions hitting the ground running in your rookie year by accident.
Anyone who wasn’t convinced probably changed their mind after seeing this 88-yard touchdown pass to receiver Andy Isabella in Arizona’s Week 9 loss to the 49ers.
“That was a really solid throw, I’m not sure if that was the best one,” Kingsbury said, when asked if this was Murray’s signature moment. “He put that thing on the money and Andy did a great job running a cross. He has elite arm talent, as accurate as anybody, gets it out quick and can throw from different angles. I think as we evolve as an offense too, we’ll get to see more of that.”
Kingsbury laughed when I asked him to identify his favorite Murray throw, saying that “there’s been a couple on the move, I can’t think of one. Probably one of those where he’s moving around and makes it.”
Well, my nomination would go to this nine-yard touchdown pass to receiver KeeSean Johnson in that same 49ers game. Here, Murray rolls out in boot-action and makes a great timing throw to Johnson, who runs a crossing route from left to right, into the teeth of San Francisco’s converging coverage. Not bad for a guy in his ninth career NFL game, against one of the NFL’s top defenses.
“I think he’s got more confidence,” Wagner says of Murray’s development as a passer. “Definitely feel like he knows where he wants to go with the ball. I think they’ve helped him because I think they get him out of the pocket a little bit more to move him around a little bit more. Where I’ve seen him grow the most honestly is running. I feel like the beginning of the year, he was running to outrun everybody and get out of bounds. Now, he’s cutting up the field and trying to see how many yards he can get and how many people he can make miss. We have to be mindful of that.”
Carroll, who’s obviously seen Russell Wilson’s every NFL snap, already sees similarities.
“Sure. Yeah. The threat that they pose to the opponent is really – that’s one of the biggest aspects of it because it doesn’t happen often when they take off and run. It’s the threat that’s there that dictates how you play and dictates the mentality of the players playing against them. [Defenses] have to rush the passer a certain way. They’ve got to come out of their zones in a certain way. They’ve got to plaster their routes on scrambles in a certain way because the guy can take off and make a bunch of yards. It’s very similar in that regard.”
Not that it’s all perfect just yet.
Murray threw three interceptions in Arizona’s 23-17 Week 14 loss to the Steelers. The last of the three was a desperation heave to cornerback Joe Haden with 48 seconds left in the game on fourth-and-17.
The first two were more problematic.
“The second one was a fourth down, so the sense of urgency to get the ball out of your hands to make a play was high,” Kingsbury said of this pick to linebacker T.J. Watt. “You don’t want to go down with that ball. Possibly could’ve ran it, but he was trying to make the play. You understand that and those things happen.”
Kingsbury does agree with Carroll and Wagner that the Seahawks will face a different Cardinals offense — and quarterback — this time around. Looking at the Week 4 tape made that readily apparent for all involved.
“I think we can find a bunch of things that we got to get better at,” Murray’s coach concluded. “That’s almost three months ago. We feel like we’ve come a long way. I’m sure they feel like they’ve come a long way. The biggest deal with that first game was we got in a hole and played right to their hands. We threw a pick six. We’re down 20-3. With those pass rushers and that defense and their running attack, what Russ [Wilson] can do, you’re playing right into their hands when you’re trying to play catch up against Seattle. We can’t afford to do that again. We have to stay on schedule in all three phases to give ourselves a chance to compete.”
If Murray can stay on schedule in this game and beyond, it would seem that the sky’s the limit — at least, that’s Kingsbury’s notion. In 2018, Patrick Mahomes had a breakout campaign in his second NFL season. 2019 has obviously been the Year of Lamar. Again, second season. Who’s to say that 2020 won’t be the Year of Kyler Murray?
“Just his understanding of the offense and the improvement I’ve seen week in and week out as he’s gotten more comfortable in the scheme, with the speed of the game, with the different things you can and can’t get away from,” Kingsbury said. “Pat was able to learn from a veteran guy like Alex Smith who is a brilliant quarterback. He had Andy Reid and was able to kind of sit back and learn for a year. Lamar was kind of thrown into it after about five or six years and still had a veteran guy to see how to prepare and learn. Kyler really hasn’t been afforded that luxury. He was the guy right away has had to make some different trial and error on how to prepare, how to learn. The coaches can steer him as much as you want, but he didn’t have that veteran Super Bowl type caliber quarterback to show him the ropes. It’s been a unique situation, but I’ve been proud of how he’s navigated it and handled himself thus far.”
Perhaps the only question left to ask is how often Murray will run as his career progresses. Is his coach okay if he runs for 1,000 yards in a season, as only Jackson and Michael Vick have in the NFL’s history of quarterbacks?
“It’s okay as long as he’s protecting himself. He’s not built like Lamar, Lamar is a big guy, a physical runner. That’s not Kyler’s game. He’s more of a quick twitch, finding the soft spot, get down, get out of bounds. But if he were to go for 1,000, he’s really smart, he’s great at protecting himself, has been his whole life and so I would be pleased with it.”
One suspects that the more Murray learns, and the more the Cardinals put around him, the happier Kliff Kingsbury will be. Kyler Murray may not be the next Lamar Jackson, but becoming the first version of himself has been impressive enough so far.
Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar previously covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018 and won the Professional Football Researchers Association’s Nelson Ross Award for “Outstanding recent achievement in pro football research and historiography.”
