It’s Week 14. We have a lot of questions this week, so let’s get to answering them.
Denver Broncos
From David Gleeson (@davidrgleeson): Why doesn’t Sean Payton get any love for COY? All other candidates that are normally mentioned are deserving, but SP is nowhere in sight. Shouldn’t he at least be in the conversation? And if COY is all about exceeding expectations, why wasn’t SP in the running last year?
David, I think the reason is based on expectations. The Coach of the Year award routinely seems to be a most improved team award. In other words, it’s a reflection of how a team performs relative to our collective perception of that team. So last year, with a rookie quarterback and a bumpy Year 1 fresh in our memories, Sean Payton was a prime candidate. The problem, even with Denver making the playoffs for the first time in nine years, was that the year-over-year improvement was just two wins. So Payton finished fifth.
This year, Payton set the bar very high. The Broncos in no way shied away from Super Bowl talk over the summer, and they’ve delivered, going 10–2. And in a way, Payton’s shot at winning the award becomes a casualty of that narrative. I say that as someone who has a pretty good idea of what Payton was doing, creating a high standard for a locker room he believed was well-equipped to handle it.
It was the right thing to do then. It’s working, as much as something like that can, now. And that’s great. It just won’t help him win that award, remarkable as the turnaround he’s conducted in Denver is. Which I’m sure he’s O.K. with.
New Orleans Saints
From DanteMooreSzn (@AwwShoughs): Kellen Moore safe? And do the Saints draft a QB if they end up selecting top five?
DanteMooreSzn, in response to the first question, I think that’ll depend on what the team looks like down the stretch. Four of the Saints’ past five losses have come by double digits. The team is 2–10. However, Moore is a first-year head coach, brought aboard at 36. You want to let a hire like that breathe, since a learning curve should be built in.
That said, I don’t know if Moore is completely out of the woods yet. One of the NFL’s most passionate fan bases appears to have settled into a state of apathy—which is way worse than anger—and owner Gayle Benson’s awareness about that seems to be high. So much so that she felt the need to address it, granting a rare one-on-one interview to my old buddy and Times-Picayune columnist Jeff Duncan. (Good on Jeff for getting it.)
I think, for Moore to be safe, he’ll need to get good play from rookie quarterback Tyler Shough, demonstrating his ability to develop the position, and a string of competitive efforts. No one is expecting five consecutive wins, but they can’t get blown out every week.
As for the quarterback question, I think a lot of that is going to boil down to what’s available. Just asking around, I’m not sure that Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Alabama’s Ty Simpson are going to move the needle for everyone, and the scuttlebutt is that Oregon is going to open the vault open to keep Dante Moore in school. So I certainly could see a scenario where waiting a year at that position in the draft might be a smart play.
Minnesota Vikings
From Drew (@16eDrew97): What has happened to Kevin O’Connell?
Drew, nothing.
O’Connell has demonstrated that he can maximize a quarterback, getting Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold to their very best, and winning games along the way with Josh Dobbs and Jaren Hall in Minnesota. So I have a hard time pinning the team’s current issues on O’Connell—which tells me the Vikings’ problem is more about how they’ve stocked the QB room than how they’ve developed it.
I’d give J.J. McCarty more time. He’s the only guy the Vikings have who has a shot at being the long-term answer. He’s still just 22. But at this point, you can see why the Vikings made the effort to have Darnold, and Daniel Jones after that effort failed, as a high-end insurance policy.
The rest of the Vikings operation is pretty healthy, though they absolutely have to draft better than they have of late (they’ve actually done much better in free agency).
From Joel (@co0pgoesVr00m): Why isn’t the Vikings’ front office taking more heat about the team’s struggles? Kevin O’Connell admitted yesterday that he didn’t change the game plan to fit his rookie QBs. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah hasn’t filled the roster with good players from the draft. O’Connell has publicly knocked J.J. McCarthy about fundamentals.
The fact that five of the team’s six top 100 picks—Lewis Cine, Andrew Booth, Ed Ingram, Brian Asamoah II and Mekhi Blackmon—from the 2022 and ’23 drafts are already gone from the team isn’t great (Jordan Addison was the one hit). And you throw McCarthy’s struggles in with that, and it’s fair to critique what’s otherwise been a really good four-year start to the O’Connell/Adofo-Mensah regime in that area.
So I’d say there’s obviously a lot of good that’s been done since 2022, but the idea that there could be tweaks/changes as those misses really are felt (with those classes now being third- and fourth-year players) isn’t totally out of line.
Cleveland Browns
From Z (@splitteroftheg): Do you think the Browns clean house and part with Berry and Stefanski? Or do you think, despite them being a “package”, only Stefanski will get fired? If so, who is out there on the market to take his spot as coach? The candidates seem scarce this year.
Z, I don’t think so, but I’ll give you one reason why it won’t happen, then one why it might.
To me, the reason it won’t happen is because it took nearly a decade for Jimmy Haslam and his family to find the right structure and mix of people to run their football operation. The combination of Kevin Stefanski and Andrew Berry delivered playoff berths in Year 1 and Year 4, and the bumps since can be connected back to the organizational decision to trade for Deshaun Watson. As such, one bad year needs to be considered with context.
The flip side is that the structure will change a bit with Paul DePodesta (seen by many as the man behind the curtain, with ownership’s ear, for the Browns) off to run the Colorado Rockies. My understanding is that the Browns won’t replace him with a new chief strategy officer, but it raises questions about whether his absence will lead to a more thorough review of how they build.
Alright, I’ll give you a verdict. Stefanski and Berry get another year, and a chance to build off a really good 2025 draft class, with two first-round picks to work with in April, and a big quarterback question to answer.
Chicago Bears
From Lurker (@Lurker654560): Does Dennis Allen deserve more credit for the Bears’ turnaround? There seems to be a consensus that turnovers are fluky and can’t be relied upon in the long-term. Yet, it seems like his strong third-down defense matches his track record.
Lurker, anyone you talk to with the Bears will tell you that Allen deserves credit.
Obviously, some changes come with a new scheme, and the rash of injuries endured on that side has only exacerbated the problem. Corners Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon and linebackers Noah Sewell and T.J. Edwards have missed stretches, and the team’s biggest offseason additions up front, Dayo Odeyingbo and Grady Jarrett, have played in 17 games between them (and Odeyingbo’s now out for the year).
Allen has kept the ship steady. The numbers don’t sparkle, but considering the circumstances, the Bears haven’t had many really bad days defensively (there was one in Cincinnati, for sure), and that’s a credit to Allen. It’ll be fun to see what he can do down the stretch, with closer to a full deck to play with.
New York Giants
From Ricker81 (@D_Ricker81): Is the Giants an attractive job for a highly in demand HC candidate even with Joe Schoen still attached as GM?
Ricker, I think it’s an attractive job, so long as you like Jaxson Dart at quarterback. If so, then add him to a franchise receiver (Malik Nabers), left tackle (Andrew Thomas), edge player (Brian Burns) and defensive tackle (Dexter Lawrence), plus a talented edge to play opposite Burns (Abdul Carter), and you have a really good foundation to build off.
On top of that, it’s a flagship franchise in, to borrow a Jameis Winston quote (which was borrowed from Hamilton), the greatest city in the world, with solid, generally patient ownership.
As for Schoen’s future, I wouldn’t say anything with finality. Ownership likes what he’s done in modernizing the Giants’ football operation, and sees talent on hand. But the one thing I could see tipping the scales is if there’s a coach that the Maras and Tisches really want who insists on bringing his own GM. It’d be similar to Kansas City in 2013, when the Chiefs let go of GM Scott Pioli because that’s what it took to land Andy Reid, who wanted to bring John Dorsey in with him.
Coaching carousel
From Greg Feltes (@gregfeltes): We are already at two. Would you take the over or under on 5.5 head coach vacancies this offseason?
I’d take the over.
Let history be our guide. There have been less than six coaching changes in just four cycles over the past 20 years. There have been seven or more in four of the past five years, and 12 in the past 15.
With the Giants’ and the Titans’ jobs already open, it wouldn’t be that hard to find four more vacancies.
From axelMTG (@axelMTG): Has the NFL considered creating a minor league like this? Each team gets a Division 2 team that they could use to develop practice squad guys, coaches and refs. It could be either a spring or summer league so it doesn’t conflict with the regular schedule.
That’s what NFL Europe was. However, the league decided it couldn’t make money on that venture, so it pulled the plug. It’s hard for me to see the owners spending on something that doesn’t bring the promise of a real financial return.
And we’ve seen the failure of enough spring football operations to know that making money on such a league, as expensive as it is to run one in this particular sport, is difficult.
New England Patriots
From Blingatti (@blingatti): After multiple players refused to come to NE last year or two, has the perception of going to the Pats changed with players around the league?
Yes, Blingatti, both Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel will make Foxboro more desirable.
You won’t get the discounts that you got when Tom Brady was there, and Bill Belichick was winning titles at a ridiculous clip—that doesn’t really happen anywhere anymore (with athletes who started getting paid as teenagers), and was a one-off sort of deal where a lot of veterans wanted to align with those two. But you also won’t have to pay tax to land a premium guy the way they did to get Milton Williams last year. Which is great progress.
Injuries
From Curtis Allen (@curtis93969): How wide a disparity do you think there is among NFL teams in conditioning, injury prevention and treatment? Fans only have games missed due to injury to look at. Is there a tangible feeling around the league that certain teams are doing better than others?
I’d have to do more research, but I will say that this is an area where the best teams are always pushing the envelope—not surprisingly, I’d tell you the Ravens, Eagles, Rams and Niners are among the ones that seem to be ahead in this space—and are pretty protective about how they do things.
I’d also say that too much luck is involved with injuries to read too much into that data. The real difference, to me, is having guys feel their best consistently on game day, which gives them the best chance to perform at their peak when it counts.
Thanksgiving halftime show
From Gambling Avenger (@GamblingAvenge1): Did the Jack White/Marshall halftime show surpass the Scotty Stapp one?
Full disclosure: I was in the yard throwing the ball with my kids at my parents’ house during the halftime show—just like my dad would do with my brother and me on Thanksgiving back in the day. So I’d have to go back and check the tape on that one.
Cincinnati Bengals
From DAVEY KNUCKLES (@IAmCans69): Is Tee Higgins getting traded to the Jets?
No. Higgins will be in Cincinnati for some time to come.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Sean Payton Isn’t a Coach of the Year Favorite, But Maybe He Should Be.
