In Sean McVay’s first season with the Rams, he found immediate success. He led Los Angeles to an 11-5 record, their first playoff appearance since 2004 and won NFL Coach of the Year. He did all that at the age of 31.
The Rams got even better and made the Super Bowl in his second season, but he didn’t receive a single vote for 2018 Coach of the Year, which went to Matt Nagy. Last year, Los Angeles regressed to only 9-7 and McVay was nowhere near the conversation for the award.
Coach of the Year is a difficult award to predict because the best coach doesn’t always win it. For instance, Bill Belichick is one of the best coaches in the NFL, but he hasn’t won it since 2010. It’s often given to the coach who does the most with the least talent or overcomes significant injuries to his team.
The Rams lost a lot of talent this offseason, so could that put McVay in the discussion for Coach of the Year again in 2020? The oddsmakers aren’t overly confident. At BetMGM, McVay is only 22/1 (+2200) to win it, which ranks 14th among all coaches.
What will work against McVay in the race to win this award is the fact that there’s often voter fatigue and the same coach hardly ever wins it twice. It’s not like Offensive or Defensive Player of the Year, which can be quantified based on stats. Coach of the Year is much more subjective and based on each voter’s view of how a coach did.
Belichick, who will be without Tom Brady in 2020, is the favorite at 10/1 (+1000), followed by Mike Vrabel of the Titans and Mike McCarthy of the Cowboys at 14/1 (+1400).
No coach since 1991 has won the award with fewer than 10 wins, so the Rams will need to finish at least 1.5-2 games above .500 next season for McVay to have a chance. In fact, the last coach to win Coach of the Year with fewer than 11 wins was Marvin Lewis in 2009 when he led the Bengals to a 10-6 record.
If McVay is to have a legitimate shot, the Rams likely need to go at least 13-3 and have another year with a potent offense like they had in 2017 and 2018.
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