You play to win the game, right Herm Edwards?
And that was the case on Monday night: With 22 seconds left and the Buffalo Bills down 34-31 to the Tennessee Titans, Sean McDermott’s team needed just one yard for a first down at the Titans’ two-yard line. They’d get a new set of downs and a chance to score a touchdown to win.
OR! McDermott could have trotted out the kicking team for a chip shot for the tie on the road.
But he chose to run one of the best rushing QBs in the game on a sneak that was improbably stopped by Justin Simmons. Game over, Bills lost.
THE TITANS STOP JOSH ALLEN ON 4TH DOWN AT THE GOAL LINE 😱
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/XHMTWxqyXz
— ESPN (@espn) October 19, 2021
Absolutely incredible stop by Jeffrey Simmons. What a beast. Phenomenal pad level and strength to bully his way past the blocker and to stop Allen.
— Ian Wharton (@NFLFilmStudy) October 19, 2021
Here’s the thing: If you’re a team with Allen, that’s the right call every time. And if you’re a team that’s among the best in the NFL, you do it and know that you’re almost certainly going to get the first down and at least have a great shot at the touchdown.
Heck, even advance stats tell us that’s the case to go for it!
The Bills decision to go for it on 4th & inches from the Titans 3 (trailing 34-31) was unequivocally the optimal call according to the NGS Decision Guide.
🔹 Conversion Probability: 75%
🔹 Win Probability: 63% if GO, 42% if FG
🔹 Recommendation: GO FOR IT (by 21.3%)#BUFvsTEN— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 19, 2021
McDermott explained his decision and said that it was partially based on his defense, which couldn’t stop Derrick Henry all night:
"We hadn't stopped them on defense for a number of drives there in the second half but felt like we could go and win the game right there."
The Titans scored on 6 straight drives going back to the second half so Sean McDermott said that factored into going for it on 4th down. pic.twitter.com/b9MzeWonnW
— Heather Prusak (@haprusak) October 19, 2021
Good call. And next time, you know Allen is getting that one yard.
