Next Gen Stats introduced a new metric in 2018 called competition probability, which measured the difficulty of NFL throws and catches on gamedays.
The metric factored the distance the ball traveled, the receiver’s separation, the pressure on the passer, and the quarterback’s speed and time to throw to determine the best (and worst) quarterback-wide receiver tandems last season.
Based on the data acquired, Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson and wide receiver Tyler Lockett finished the year as the top duo, listed as the “most extraordinary” pair in 2018. The two were good for a 20.1 percent catch rate above expectation to lead the league.
“Consider this: Wilson and Lockett combined to complete 18-of-23 passes for 663 yards and seven touchdowns on passes that traveled over 20 yards in the air in 2018,” Graham Barfield writes for NFL.com. “All of those figures led the NFL.”
“Even though Michael Thomas reset the record book for the league’s best catch rate ever, Lockett’s season was more impressive once you consider how deep he saw his targets downfield,” Barfield continued. “Whereas Thomas’ passing looks traveled 7.7 yards in the air on average (83rd-of-121), Lockett’s 13.5 average depth of target was 15th-highest among all players.”
Don’t forget, Wilson and Lockett also combined for another insane stat of the 2018 season, Wilson’s perfect passer rating when targeting Lockett, to really seal the deal as a truly “extraordinary tandem.”
