MOVING forward with Scottish independence is proving a difficult task for the SNP.
Within minutes of the historic Holyrood vote calling for the Scottish Parliament to be given the powers to hold a second referendum, the UK Government had rejected the plea.
Outgoing Keir Starmer – with his wobbly position in Number 10 while Andy Burnham won his way back to Westminster – refused to engage on the issue or discuss it at what was meant to be an upcoming meeting.
Whoever the next prime minister is, we can expect much of the same, Burnham has made no secret of his position on Scottish independence.
The SNP have repeatedly asked for Section 30 orders to allow the powers needed to hold a referendum to be devolved, and have subsequently been rejected or ignored by both the Conservative and Labour governments.
Toni Giugliano, the SNP’s former policy officer, believes that there is a route to breaking this deadlock, or “logjam”, as First Minister John Swinney described it ahead of the 2026 Holyrood election.
Swinney’s plan hinged on securing a majority of SNP MSPs, a target that the party did not meet. That there is a record number of pro-independence MSPs in the Scottish Parliament has not been heeded by Westminster now, in the same way that 2021’s pro-independence majority was ignored.
In a letter to the First Minister, seen by the Sunday National, Giugliano has called for three key things to form part of an “ambitious new strategy” that breaks the constitutional deadlock.
“Relying solely on seeking permission from Westminster isn’t working,” he wrote. “The UK Labour Government instantly rejected the Scottish Parliament's request for a Section 30 order despite a clear pro-independence majority.
“This shows total contempt for Scotland – and there’s no evidence that the incoming Burnham Government has any intention of respecting Scottish democracy.”
Giugliano’s plan is threefold; establish a constitutional convention to agree within two years the mechanism for a referendum, to prepare to fight the 2029 General Election as a “constitutional election”, and to use part of SNP membership fees to fund a Yes campaign outside of political boundaries.
On the constitutional convention – which did form part of Swinney’s independence strategy ahead of the election – he argued that trade unions, local government, businesses, faith groups and civil society, should come together to agree the terms that would trigger an independence referendum.
“Its purpose should be to agree, within two years, a democratic, lawful and credible route to independence that commands support beyond any single political party,” Giugliano said. “A mechanism developed and endorsed by civic Scotland would carry a legitimacy that no UK Government could easily dismiss.”
Fighting a General Election along constitutional lines has been “long debated but never tested” and, with the SNP only having eight MPs at Westminster, the party has “little to lose”.
“It must be a single-issue constitutional election, uniting the Yes movement behind one ticket,” he writes in the letter to Swinney, adding that the constitutional convention could help define the “criteria” for success at that election.
“Ensuring that any result carries a democratic legitimacy that Westminster cannot ignore,” he adds.
Re-establishing a Yes campaign – something Giugliano has campaigned for previously and had an amendment passed at SNP conference calling for one – is another key tenet of this strategy.
To build support beyond 50%, he argues that the SNP should be focused on governing Scotland, while an independent “well-resourced” Yes campaign should be set up with the sole purpose to “make the case for independence every day”.
“That’s what our members expect their membership fees to contribute towards,” he adds.
He referred to Swinney’s comments in a recent interview where he said members who spoke against his independence strategy at the SNP conference ahead of the election went out and campaigned anyway, noting that he was one of those members.
“It’s in that same spirit of open debate that I intend to publish this letter, in the hope of keeping independence firmly on the national agenda,” he added.
Speaking to the Sunday National, Giugliano added: “We either allow the Burnham government to dictate the terms and dilute the mandate for independence or we take control of the agenda by announcing a plan that breaks the deadlock: a Constitutional Convention, a re-established national Yes campaign and committing to fight the next General Election as a constitutional election.
“Scotland is not powerless on the constitution, but we've become stuck in a cycle of winning mandates, asking Westminster for permission, expressing outrage when it says no, and then repeating it all again at the next election.
“We need to break this cycle with a plan that overcomes the stalemate, and a logical place to start is a Constitutional Convention that agrees a democratic route.
“I’d rather talk about a ‘constitutional election’ than a ‘de facto referendum’ – one that has the backing of civic Scotland and its terms agreed by a constitutional convention, not just the SNP. There is no reason whatsoever why the SNP should fight the General Election as a normal contest – we’re not pitching for Government.
"It must be fought on a single issue, uniting the Yes movement on a single ticket, with the support of a cross-party Yes campaign to get us over the line.”
The SNP have been contacted for comment.
