Scottish election leaders debate - Verdict and summary
Election debates are more common in Holyrood politics than in Westminster politics, as I said earlier, and one of the consequences of that is that they probably make less impact. Viewers get used to their leaders, and they know what to expect. This one did not feel as if was going to change many minds.
Nicola Sturgeon is the dominant figure in Scottish politics, and she was tonight too. She was particularly strong on Govan and, even when coming under sustained attack from three of her opponents for her neverendum leanings (see below), she more than held her own. Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, put up the strongest opposition. She was a bit too shouty, and relatively glib on the shipyard jobs, but she was forceful, giving credence to the claim she can make the Conservatives the principal opposition to the SNP. Kezia Dugdale, the Scottish Labour leader, seemed to find it harder to differentiate herself from Sturgeon and the SNP (not least because tax, where Labour has very distinct and progressive policy, did not come up). She was unpersuasive on the NHS and sometimes she sounded a bit centrist (see 8.37pm), but not in the way that being centrist worked successfully for Nick Clegg in that first debate in 2010. The Scottish Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie at least made a mark with a notable soundbite on independence (see below), and Patrick Harvie was probably best on PFI.
One final point. Watching the debate from London, it was notable how little Westminster featured. There was a stage when devolved politics was to a large extent a competition as to who could complain most about the UK government. But that era now seems to have gone. And a good thing too.
Here are the key points.
- Nicola Sturgeon was accused of breaking her promise to honour the result of the independence referendum and of being “anti-democratic”. The claim that she had broken a promise was made by Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader. She said Sturgeon should not keep open the “wound” caused by the independence referendum in 2014. Davidson went on:
It’s not good for our country, it’s not good for economy, it’s not good for encouraging jobs and growth ... And [Sturgeon] made a promise. She signed a binding agreement that she would respect the result. And that is important. And before the referendum she went around every TV studio she could find and told every person in Scotland that it was once in a generation, once in a lifetime. She has gone back on both those promises. It is not good enough, and it is not up to her to see one opinion poll she likes and say we’re putting this country through it all once more. It’s not on.
Willie Rennie, the Scottish Lib Dem leader, said Sturgeon’s refusal to rule out a second independence referendum was “anti-democratic”. He said:
We had one of the biggest democratic experiences in our lifetime. [The SNP] celebrated it constantly. But now as soon as it’s over and they did not get the result they wanted, they want to do it all over again. Did they not get the message? We want to stay in the UK. Respect the result. I would even go so far as saying you’re anti-democratic.
Kezia Dugdale, the Scottish Labour leader, also said Sturgeon should rule out a second referendum. She said:
It’s not good enough. There is not a mandate for a referendum. Yet you [Sturgeon] are in two different papers today saying, ‘Yes we might have one’ and now saying ‘No we won’t’, trying to pull the wool over people’s eyes in Scotland, when so many people just want to move on from that referendum of the past.
Mocking Sturgeon’s claim that she would only hold a second referendum if there was clear evidence of public support for one, Dugdale went on:
She’s saying, ‘Let’s trust the pollsters’. If we trusted the pollsters, Ed Miliband would be prime minister. This is no way to govern the country.
But Sturgeon said it would be wrong to rule out a second referendum.
I think the question for other politicians on this platform is what is it they think gives them the right to stand in the way of a majority. Scotland will only become independent if a majority backs that. That is democracy. And none of us should fear the democratic wishes of the people of this country.
-
Davidson was accused of lying about a government decision that could lead to job losses on the Clyde. Dugdale said that Davidson had “told a porkie’ when she said that the UK government was honouring a promise to build new type-26 frigates on the Clyde. She said:
The first thing we can do is keep to the timescale that was made to the people who work on the Clyde. And Ruth has quite frankly told a porkie tonight. There’s an 18-month delay on work on the Clyde and it has to be reversed to honour the promise that was made to people during the referendum.
Sturgeon said the Tories had “betrayed” the shipyard workers.
Ruth is really misinformed because the frigate factory, the centre of excellence, that was proposed is one of the things that is not going ahead. I was in Govan shipyard on Monday talking to the unions. The reason why they are worried is because of the delay in the contract that was promised to the workers on the Clyde.
Davidson said, if Scotland had voted for independence, there would not be any frigates being built on the Clyde. She also said it was “shameful” that Sturgeon was trying to scare workers about their jobs.
That’s all from me for tonight.
Thanks for the comments.
Updated
This is from the former Scottish Labour leader in Scotland Johann Lamont, referring to a question a member of the audience tried to raise.
#leadersdebate Audience member asks q about homelessness. Told - Let's stick with second ref question. Says it all abt Sco politics. Sadly.
— Johann Lamont (@JohannLamont) May 1, 2016
This is from the Times’s Kenny Farquharson on the debate.
I thought Kez won the first two leaders' debates, but she was poor tonight. Nicola the winner, with Ruth second and Kez third.
— Kenny Farquharson (@KennyFarq) May 1, 2016
This is the graph of Twitter-talk about the #leadersdebate. Peak at half 8 there for indyref rammy. pic.twitter.com/9W75foSphr
— Philip Sim (@BBCPhilipSim) May 1, 2016
These are from the BBC’s Philip Sim.
Interesting stats from Twitter on #leadersdebate. Most tweeted-about leaders, most to least - Sturgeon, Davidson, Dugdale, Rennie, Harvie
— Philip Sim (@BBCPhilipSim) May 1, 2016
Peak tweeting during the #leadersdebate was during the barney about independence, stats say. Over 20,000 tweets total.
— Philip Sim (@BBCPhilipSim) May 1, 2016
#LeadersDebate Twitter mentions per party, most to least: SNP, Tories, Labour, Greens, Lib Dems.
— Philip Sim (@BBCPhilipSim) May 1, 2016
The SNP has now put out two news releases about tonight’s debate.
In the first, Humza Yousaf, Europe minister in the Scottish government and the SNP candidate for Glasgow Pollok, criticised Ruth Davidson for defending Westminster over the frigates contract. He said:
If the promises made to workers on the Clyde by the UK government before the referendum were to be broken, it would be an unforgivable betrayal – and people in Scotland would have been shocked to see Ruth Davidson try and defend the indefensible during the Leaders Debate tonight.
It’s clear that Ruth Davidson will defend David Cameron at any cost, and if she has any respect for workers on the Clyde, she will immediately arrange a meeting with the trade unions – and apologise for the broken promises of this Tory government.
And the second SNP press release claimed the debate showed that Sturgeon was the only credible candidate to be first minister because “Kezia Dugdale floundered over her plans to short-change Scotland’s health service and sought to mislead people on their NHS plans, and Ruth Davidson was put under pressure over the Tory government’s broken promises regarding shipbuilding jobs on the Clyde”.
Snap summary
There seem to have been two main news lines in the debate.
- Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, was accused of breaking her promise to honour the result of the independence referendum and of being “anti-democratic”. The claim that she had broken a promise was made by Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, and the claim that she was being anti-democratic was made by Willie Rennie, the Scottish Lib Dem leader. Sturgeon rejected these claims, saying that it would be undemocratic to ignore the will of the Scottish people if a majority wanted independence.
- Davidson was accused of lying about a government decision that could lead to job losses on the Clyde. Kezia Dugdale, the Scottish Labour leader, said that Davidson had “told a porkie’ when she said that the UK government was honouring a promise to build new type-26 frigates on the Clyde. Sturgeon said the Tories had “betrayed” the shipyard workers. Davidson said, if Scotland had voted for independence, there would not be any frigates being built on the Clyde.
I’ll post a beefed-up version, with the quotes, soon.
Updated
Dugdale says she would support the proposal by the EIS teachers union for industrial action over school qualifications.
Sturgeon says the SNP government has a working group looking at the concerns raised by teachers. She hopes there will not be any industrial action.
And that’s it. The debate is over.
I will post a summary and some reaction and analysis shortly.
John Swinney, the SNP’s Scottish finance minister, is endorsing the line used by Patrick Harvie.
Expensive PFI projects were made "the only game in town" by the UK Labour Government and Gordon Brown. #LeadersDebate
— John Swinney (@JohnSwinney) May 1, 2016
Question 4 - Schools
Q: Given the Edinburgh schools PFI fiasco, how would the panel ensure money goes to the right people?
Rennie says at the time those PFI deal were justified.
But he says there needs to be a proper inquiry into those deals, not least to ensure that private finance arrangements work properly in the futrue.
Q: Were those deals a mistake?
That’s a difficult question, says Dugdale. At the time those PFI deals were needed because the Tories had left schools in a state of wrack and ruin. There should be a review into what private finance methods work best. She points out that the SNP government is using its own version of PFI.
Harvie says PFI was “the only game in town” because the Labour government in London insisted on it. But it was a mistake, because public borrowing is cheaper than private borrowing. She says public ownership of infrastructure is the best approach.
Sturgeon says the SNP would increase health spending by £500m more than inflation.
She says Labour is only proposing to increase health spending in line with inflation. That is shocking, she says. And that is less than the Barnett consequentials would imply.
That is not true, says Dugdale.
Q: So what does your manifesto say?
Dugdale says it says Labour would increase NHS spending in line with inflation. But, using the revenue from tax increase, extra investment would go into public services.
Sarah Smith says Dugdale is not putting a figure on how much would go into the NHS.
Dugdale says Labour would keep prescription charges free.
Sturgeon says the SNP are committed to investment and reform. They will increase the health budget by £500m, more than inflation, paid for by not passing on the tax cut for higher-rate tax payers proposed by George Osborne.
She says Davidson suggests only rich people would pay prescription charges under her plans.
But some people on as little as £16,000 would have to pay prescription charges, she says.
And she says people with chronic conditions, like cancer and Parkinson’s, would have to pay.
Rennie says mental health should be a priority. There are no mental health beds north of Dundee, he says.
Harvie says the next Scottish government should introduce progressive taxation to pay for public services.
Not only are our tax proposals fair - most of Scotland pays less under them. #LeadersDebate https://t.co/ZiA9JXe4n9 pic.twitter.com/ModPssPaF3
— Scottish Greens (@scotgp) May 1, 2016
Question 3 - NHS
Q: With an ageing population, and people more reliant on the NHS, how would you protect its funding?
Davidson says the Tory manifesto contains plans for an NHS guarantee what would ensure its funding went up every year by 2%, or inflation, or the Barnett consequentials (ie, what England is getting), whichever was bigger.
She also defends her plan to bring back prescription charges. The SNP have hit back on Twitter.
FACT CHECK: Ruth Davidson’s tax on ill-health would cost someone with a chronic condition £100 every year. #LeadersDebate
— The SNP (@theSNP) May 1, 2016
Dugdale says the new powers coming to the parliament will allow the Scottish parliament to make different choices.
Let’s use those powers, she says. She says she is appealing to those who voted yes and no to support this vision.
Davidson says Sturgeon has the ability to bring the country back together. All she has to do is say that she will accept the result of the independence referendum, and take the referendum option off the table “at least for the next parliament”.
Sturgeon says she is not proposing another referendum tomorrow. All she is saying is that, if a majority of Scots want one, she would give it to them.
Sturgeon says she struggles with politicians standing in the way of the will of the public.
The referendum that is causing trouble now is the one the Tories are holding on the EU, she says.
Davidson accuses Sturgeon of breaking promise to accept result of independence referendum
Q: Should the prime minister prevent a second referendum if the Scots want one?
Davidson says there is no mandate for a second referendum.
She says Sturgeon has responsibility to the whole of the country, not just the SNP. She should not keep this wound open.
She signed an agreement saying she would respect the result of the referendum. And she told people it was a once in a lifetime event. She says Sturgeon has gone back on both those promises.
Sarah Smith takes a question from the audience. A woman says that 24 hours after the result the Tory government in London went back on what had been promised.
Harvie says he backed independence.
Respecting the result of the referendum does not mean those in favour of independence have to shut up about it, he says.
Rennie claims SNP are 'anti-democratic' in wanting another independence referendum
Rennie says he does not want to spend the next five years arguing about independence.
We had one of the biggest democratic experiences of our lifetime.
Did they not get the message? ... I would even go so far as saying they’re anti-democratic.
Sturgeon says she favours independence. The question was answered in 2014. But if the public change their mind, and there is clear evidence that people want a second referendum, they should have it.
None of us should fear the democratic wishes of the people of this country, she says.
She says she believes in something. She will not abandon her support for independence.
What on earth is it about the democratic will that some people on this platform seem to find so frightening?
Question 2 - Independence
Q: If in the future a majority of Scots want a second independence referendum, who are politicians to stop them?
Dugdale says she believed Sturgeon when she said the referendum was a once in a lifetime opportunity.
She says that in one paper today Sturgeon says she favours a second one. In another paper, she says she is opposed.
Q: But what if the polls showed a clear majority of people said they wanted one?
Dugdale says, if the polls were right, Ed Miliband would be prime minister.
Labour is opposed to a second referendum, she says.
Dugdale accuses Davidson of telling a 'porkie' about the Govan shipyard contracts
Dugdale says Davidson has “told a porkie”. There is an 18-month delay on the contract for the Glasgow frigate.
Sturgeon says she was on the Clyde recently. The workers there are worried by the delay.
Davidson says Sturgeon has been “shameful” in what she has said about the Govan shipyard. She says that if the SNP had had its way in 2014, there would have been no orders for the yard.
Davidson says the SNP would not be building any of these.
Sturgeon says the Tory government Davidson supports has “betrayed” the shipyard workers.
Here are some party tweets commenting on the debate so far.
From the SNP
Unlike Labour the SNP position on #Trident is absolutely clear - we'll oppose it at every opportunity #LeadersDebate pic.twitter.com/EApvlL1jDk
— The SNP (@theSNP) May 1, 2016
From Scottish Labour
Every child deserves a fair start in life 🍞🍎🍴👦👧 #LeadersDebate https://t.co/bVKyIRxWa9 pic.twitter.com/U8huGXliP4
— Scottish Labour (@scottishlabour) May 1, 2016
From David Mundell, the Conservative Scottish secretary
Clear debate in Scotland is @Ruth_E_Davidson against @NicolaSturgeon. Only Ruth can get stuck in and hold the SNP to account #leadersdebate
— David Mundell (@DavidMundellDCT) May 1, 2016
Willie Rennie says we need to invest in education. That is why we need “a modest penny” on income tax.
He would invest in people’s skills and talents.
This is from the BBC’s Philip Sim.
Willie Rennie is wearing Charles Kennedy's tie for the leaders debate. Also had it on for manifesto launch, sort of a talisman for him
— Philip Sim (@BBCPhilipSim) May 1, 2016
Patrick Harvie says the Greens also believe in the need for investment in public services. And they want businesses to ensure they invest in the community. It is about changing the way the economy works, he says. And the Greens are the only party committed to moving away from a reliance on fossil fuels.
Kezia Dugdale says we need to invest in people. She says Davidson’s arguments come out of the 1980s. If we continue to cut education budgets, Scotland would get left behind.
Q: Labour would oppose the renewal of Trident. But you have not said how you would protect those jobs?
Dugdale says Labour is committed to a defence diversification agency. It would find new jobs for those workers.
She says the SNP have often said how they would spend the Trident money. But they have never said they would protect the shipyard jobs.
Q: Your manifesto promise sounds hollow. It does not say how those jobs would be protected.
Dugdale says Labour’s manifesto process is an honest one. It reflects the party’s views.
Ruth Davidson says the increase for large businesses will affect one business in seven, and will make them uncompetitive compared to the rest of the UK.
She says it is mistake to make Scotland the high tax part of the UK.
She says the Tories want a business rates freeze. The SNP have been using business rates as a cash cow.
And, going back to the jobs questions, she says the Tories want to improve skills and increase apprenticeships.
Q: But we’ve had warnings that jobs could be lost on the Clyde if the Type 26 frigate contracts are delayed.
Davidson says she spoke to the business secretary and was told there was no delay to the strategic defence review.
Nicola Sturgeon says there has been a delay. It is an “absolute betrayal”, she says.
Question 1 - Jobs
Here’s the first question.
Q: What specific plans do you have to create more jobs?
Nicola Sturgeon says supporting small business is at the heart of the SNP’s manifesto. The party would continue the small business bonus. It will review business rates. It wants to help firms export, because the more firms export, the more innovative they are.
And the SNP particularly wants to help the young find a job. It wants to use a youth jobs grant to help.
Jobs figures have been “challenging” recently.
Much done. But much more still to do.
Q: But unemployment is higher in Scotland than in the rest of the UK. Business leaders say putting up business rates will cost jobs.
Sturgeon says this will just affect big businesses.
Ruth Davidson says the rate has been doubled.
BBC Scotland debate starts
The BBC Scotland debate is starting. Sarah Smith is presenting.
David Cockburn, Ukip’s sole Scottish MEP, took part in the first BBC Scottish leaders debate but has been excluded from this one. He plans to offer his comment on Periscope.
He tried this during the STV debate but it was not a great success.
Hopetoun House may look like, but the journalists aren’t impressed by the wifi. This is from BuzzFeed’s Jamie Ross.
I'm reading that Hopetoun House was built 1699. I don't think the WiFi has been updated since. #LeadersDebate
— Jamie Ross (@JamieRoss7) May 1, 2016
For anyone interested in a recap, here is a BBC live blog from the first debate. And here is a news story about what was said, focusing on Nicola Sturgeon saying she does eventually want to introduce a 50p top rate of tax, but explaining why she thought it would be “daft” to introduce it next year (because officials say it would lose money).
And here is a news story about the STV debate, focusing on Ruth Davidson accusing Sturgeon of “keeping Scotland on a knife-edge” until the SNP leader believes she can win a second independence referendum.
Here’s the set.
The stage is set #leadersdebate pic.twitter.com/rcpjjd16DE
— Nick Eardley (@nickeardleybbc) May 1, 2016
Although the Hopetoun House debate venue is rather grand, efforts are being made to ensure that the journalists covering the event do not get ideas above their station.
This is from the Scottish Daily Mail’s Alan Roden.
It's like Downton Abbey at the #leadersdebate. They've put the journalists in the stables, while the politicians have canapes and open fires
— Alan Roden (@AlanRoden) May 1, 2016
And this is from my colleague Severin Carrell.
The press billeted in #HopetounHouse stables for @BBCScotlandNews #Holyrood16 leaders debate... Shovelling... pic.twitter.com/8dbGnySmw6
— Severin Carrell (@severincarrell) May 1, 2016
One of the many things that makes Holyrood politics more modern and straightforward than Westminster politics is that election debates are the norm. There is never a problem with leaders refusing to take part because they are ahead in the polls, and none of this nonsense about how debating the issues at the heart of the election campaign could distract attention away from the election campaign. They are just an intrinsic part of the process.
And tonight we are getting the final debate of the Scottish election campaign before voting takes place on Thursday. We’ve already had one debate hosted by BBC Scotland, and another hosted by STV. Tonight’s is the second BBC Scotland debate, and it features the five main party leaders.
Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader and Scotland’s first minister
Kezia Dugdale, the Scottish Labour leader
Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader
Willie Rennie, the Scottish Lib Dem leader
Patrick Harvie, co-convenor of the Scottish Green party
It is taking place at Hopetoun House, on the outskirts of Edinburgh. As the BBC’s Philip Sim says, the location is rather grand.
So this is a nice place to have a leaders debate pic.twitter.com/hBO7nHfiRB
— Philip Sim (@BBCPhilipSim) May 1, 2016
It starts at 8pm. In Scotland you can watch it on BBC One, and for those of you living outside Scotland, it is on BBC News.
I will be covering it in full, and providing comment and reaction afterwards.
If you want to follow me, or get in touch, on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
