A game played by political insiders is speculating on the result of the Holyrood election.
Polls indicate either an outright SNP win or a chunky pro-independence majority for Nicola Sturgeon ’s party and the Greens combined.
Alex Salmond has gone further by claiming that a pro-indy “super majority” could be elected.
The key point for the pro-UK parties is that none of the polls predict a Unionist majority - it is not even close.
A combination of Holyrood’s hybrid electoral system and profound changes in the country makes it hard to imagine the circumstances in which the SNP can lose power.
A consequence of the 2014 referendum is that Scotland is split down the middle on independence and there is a correlation between views on the constitution and voting in elections.
If you support independence, you are likely to tick the SNP box, while backing Scotland’s place in the UK means you will probably vote Tory or Labour.
In the context of the Holyrood electoral system, the SNP has a huge advantage that cannot simply be swept away by vigorous campaigning or clever soundbites.
Most MSPs - 73 of 129 - are elected through first-past-the-post, with a minority returned on the proportional regional List system.
Given that the SNP are effectively the only serious pro-independence party to contest most of the constituencies (the Greens put up candidates in a small number of races), they have a natural hold on up to 50% of voters who support independence.
On the other side of the constitutional divide, Labour, the Lib Dems and the Tories all compete for pro-UK voters.
In FPTP, a three versus one split will always benefit the SNP. This is why the Tories and Labour are so focused on the Lists.
Even in an apparently ‘down’ election for the SNP like 2016, where they narrowly failed to win an outright majority, Sturgeon’s party won 59 of the 73 FPTP seats. Top up seats for the SNP and Greens on the Lists delivered a comfortable pro-independence majority.
Pointing out the benefits enjoyed by the SNP under the current electoral system does not imply criticism of Sturgeon or her party.
The system was devised by pro-UK parties ahead of devolution and has been used in every Holyrood election. Why would the SNP back change in this area?
However, it is surprising that - aside from Scottish Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie - neither Labour nor the Tories favour moving towards a full PR system.
Some proponents of devolution believed the Holyrood electoral system could thwart the ambition of the SNP, but in reality it could keep Nicola Sturgeon’s party in power for decades.
What do you think? Have your say in the comments section below.
