PHILADELPHIA — As everyone expected all along, the New York Mets — led by their new owner, the wealthiest man in baseball — are reportedly getting close on a four-year contract with a free-agent catcher.
It just isn’t J.T. Realmuto.
On its face, the news this week that the Mets are in active talks with James McCann is a ray of light for the Phillies in their otherwise pitch-black offseason. McCann is a nice player with upside after back-to-back solid seasons for the Chicago White Sox. But he isn’t Realmuto, the game’s best all-around catcher — and nine months younger than McCann, to boot.
Knowing Realmuto won’t be playing his age-30 season and beyond in New York must be a relief to Phillies managing partner John Middleton, who signaled through the elimination of 80 jobs last month that he probably won’t spend as much on player payroll in 2021. And knowing Realmuto isn’t on the Mets’ shopping list must be a bummer to agent Jeff Berry, whose job would be a little easier if he could use Steve Cohen’s riches to ratchet up the bidding.
But before anybody assumes that the Phillies are now favored in the Realmuto chase, or that their catching situation is any more stable, think again. It’s still as tricky as ever for a club that is only just this week settling its front-office uncertainty by working on a potential deal with World Series-winning executive Dave Dombrowski.
The Phillies aren’t alone among teams sideswiped by the coronavirus pandemic. But the timing was particularly lousy after they added 100 jobs on the baseball side and 30 on the business side from 2016 to 2019, according to team president Andy MacPhail, and spent nearly $700 million on free agents over the last three offseasons.
McCann’s deal with the Mets could be worth about $10 million per year, according to reports. Realmuto is seeking significantly more, perhaps upwards of $25 million annually for five or six years, potentially risky terms given the typical aging curve for catchers and his workload since 2016 (4,590 innings behind the plate, second to Yadier Molina’s 4,638 1/3).
Even with a downsized payroll, the Phillies could probably bring back Realmuto at that price. If they took the plunge, though, they might lack space in the budget to adequately overhaul the worst bullpen in baseball unless they unload money elsewhere.
Middleton has said that re-signing Realmuto is a priority. He’s also keenly aware of public sentiment and must anticipate the anger within an already frustrated fan base, to say nothing of chief “Sign J.T.” lobbyist Bryce Harper, if the popular catcher walks away.
But in deciding not to pursue an extension with Realmuto during the season, the Phillies wagered that free-agent opportunities in a pandemic wouldn’t align with his contract expectations. It remains unclear if that will be the case. And waiting out the formation of a market that might include neither New York team (the Yankees tendered a contract to catcher Gary Sanchez and reportedly are focused on re-signing infielder DJ LeMahieu) might still be the Phillies’ best approach.
The same could reasonably be said for Realmuto. McCann is the second-best free-agent catcher. If a few from the next tier — Mike Zunino, Tyler Flowers, Curt Casali, Kurt Suzuki, Robinson Chirinos, and 38-year-old Molina — begin flying off the board, would the Phillies get antsy and let Realmuto set his price?
It all sets up a risky game of chicken that could result in the Phillies’ being stuck with a 2021 catching tandem of Andrew Knapp and 21-year-old Rafael Marchan, or Realmuto’s running out of teams motivated to give him the contract he wants.
The latter doesn’t seem close to happening yet, even if the Mets are out of the mix. The St. Louis Cardinals could come calling if they don’t re-sign Molina, a franchise icon for 17 years. The Toronto Blue Jays have deep pockets and could choose to upgrade from young catcher Danny Jansen. But the Washington Nationals might have more motivation than any other team.
Like the Mets, the Nationals were interested in trading for Realmuto two years ago before the Marlins dealt him to the Phillies. They have a catching need, a spot in the middle of the order for a right-handed hitter, and a history of being active in free agency under general manager Mike Rizzo.
And would there be a better way to tweak Harper two years after he left Washington for $330 million than by prying away his favorite player from the Phillies?
“There’s going to be two teams or three teams in the NL East who are going to go after (Realmuto),” Harper said at the end of the season. “And if that happens, I mean, that’s going to be tough for us to swallow.”
There’s about to be one fewer NL East team for Realmuto to chew on. But that doesn’t mean the Phillies’ road to a reunion with him is any less complicated.
