SCOTLAND shouldn’t aim for independence unless having its own currency is “part of the plan”, an expert has said.
Dr Thibault Laurentjoye told The National that Brexit showed the UK Government is “not exactly a co-operating force” and that having infrastructure in place would be key.
Laurentjoye, assistant professor at Aalborg University business school in Denmark, has previously written a report looking at currency options for an independent Wales, published in 2024.
He has been commissioned by the Scottish Currency Group (SCG) to undertake an 18-month project developing a currency plan and proposal for Scotland.
The currency research commissioned by SCG is hoped to give a “definitive answer” to the debate.
In an exclusive interview, he told The National that he believed Scotland was at a “much better starting point” for independence, both politically and economically, than Wales.
“I would really go as far as to say I don't think you should aim for independence unless having your own currency is part of the plan from the start,” he explained.
“It’s as certain as it gets.
“I could theoretically imagine circumstances under which you could go without your own currency, but it’s a fairytale, I wouldn’t use that for a plan.”
He insisted that it was not his role to say whether or not independence was the correct route, but added: “Now, what I can 100% say as an expert is I think it's better not to become independent if you're not going to have your own currency.”
“I mean, we've seen during Brexit, how the UK is not exactly a co-operating force when it comes to any kind of institutional divorce,” Laurentjoye explained.
“So then that idea of sterlingisation started [to] be floated around.
“I’ve said it before and I will say it again – it would be terrible.”
The Scottish Government’s current position on the currency question was set out most recently in the independence whitepapers in 2022.
The policy is that Scotland would use the pound sterling, moving to introducing a new currency, the Scottish pound, “as soon as practicable”.
“The change would take place as soon as practicable through a careful, managed and responsible transition, guided by criteria and economic conditions rather than a fixed timetable,” the paper reads.
With the UK Government against a formal currency union, this informal arrangement could come with several risks, and limit what an independent Scottish Government could do.
Laurentjoye said after reviewing the Scottish Government’s position he thought they were either “clueless”, or the decision was political.
“They say things like 'to prove ourselves to the market we need to gain credibility',” he explained.
“There’s the whole credibility paradigm which is, in my opinion, a lot of hot air in recent economic literature.
“It’s the kind of nonsense that has pushed us to over rely on monetary policy to the detriment of fiscal policy.”
Laurentjoye added: “The truth is, markets are very cynical.
“They are just a collection of people interacting, and if you’re an investor, if you have the choice between someone who is needy, an institution wanting to gain your credibility but has no serious, consistent plan and doesn’t have their own currency, compared to someone who is more reluctant to gain your credibility but is has their own currency and a strategy that’s well rounded, markets will go for the latter not the former.”
The academic added that from a “strictly objective perspective” he believed Scotland was at a much better starting point for gaining independence than Wales.
He added: “I mean having the productive infrastructures, particularly when it comes to export driven activities, that will enable the current account to be sustainable, meaning the trade account, plus international income account, so dividends and wages went from the rest of the world, but mostly the trade account, Scotland is quite strong.”
On his upcoming research, he added: “I would be definitely more optimistic for Scotland than for Wales.
“That’s why I took on the challenge, because I knew that, okay, this is getting serious. It's basically like moving up a division in football, now I’m in the Premier League and it’s getting serious.”
Laurentjoye’s report on Welsh currency pathways was submitted to the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales.
His report for the SCG, due to be published in October 2026, will go into greater detail regarding an independent Scotland’s currency options.
